Busting the myths about climate migration
Image - Climate -refugees (note)
From reports imagining scenarios where millions of people overwhelm Europe to claims that moving populations will lead to new violent conflicts, media representations of migration linked to climate change have sometimes sensationalised the issue.
There are important connections between climate change and the movement of people. But the way climate change affects migration is not always clear. This post counters three media myths that have arisen about climate-induced migration.
Myth 1: In the face of drought and rising sea levels, people will flee developing countries to developed countries like the UK.
News stories depicting millions of people fleeing rising sea levels and seeking refuge in developed countries are very unlikely to become reality. When we understand how climate change will interact with other powerful drivers of migration this becomes obvious. It is likely that the impacts of climate change will make farming livelihoods more difficult and less profitable in developing countries.
Moving long distances requires money. As people see their income from farming in rural areas decline they are less likely to have the resources to move long distances or across international borders. There is currently a near-universal global trend for urbanisation. People are moving from the countryside into cities.
When someone’s livelihood is adversely affected by climate change – for example by flooding or drought – it is far more likely they will consider moving to a nearby city to find alternative work. This means to question we should be asking is not how to manage millions of “climate migrants” attempting to the enter the UK, but how to manage disaster risks in developing countries’ growing coastal cities.
Myth 2: There is a defined group of “climate change migrants” that is completely distinct from other people who move.
There are usually a number of factors affecting a person’s decision to move or stay where they are. Powerful forces like war or poverty might compel people to move. “Pull” factors in other locations like the prospect of better paid work may encourage people to move. Climate change could play a role in changing a number of these push and pull factors.
People may feel compelled to stay to care for family members in the face of adversity, or feel compelled to leave, to earn money and support their families. Meanwhile, friends and family in potential destinations can act as “pull” factor.
Climate change may influence a number of these forces, potentially altering some migratory patterns. But untangling all of these factors and picking out a group of people who have moved only because of climate change would be almost impossible.
Again, understanding this means we can ask the right questions. We do not need to ask what new legislation is needed to protect climate change migrants, because isolating these people as a group seems almost impossible. It makes more sense to ask:What needs to be done to protect and support people who move, regardless of the their reasons for moving?
Myth 3: People will move en masse, creating an exodus from one location and a sudden influx elsewhere
The fact that people won’t all move together is perhaps one of the most interesting things about migration linked to climate change. As we’ve seen, the most likely pattern will be that people will move to nearby cities in response to shrinking agricultural incomes. When this happens it is more likely that one or two household members will move. This kind of movement makes economic sense for households. Families won’t all move together, let alone entire towns or communities.
The flow of earnings from migrant workers who have left boosts household income and provides some financial security. People might even move in seasonal and circular patterns. It’s possible that people will move regularly between rural and urban areas returning to rural areas during busy times in the agricultural calendar.
Understanding this means we can ask the right questions about how to respond. Rather than discussing how we plan for a mass influx we can ask several much more useful questions such as how to support families whose mother, father or young adults have left to find work. At the other end, we might ask: What kind of services are needed in cities for people who might be arriving alone?
Getting better answers
When we only know the myths about migration and climate change we ask the wrong questions about how to respond to it. When we understand more than the myths we can begin asking sensible questions about how to respond. What does seem clear when we begin taking apart the myths is that moving might be a way for some people to survive the worst impacts of climate change. Trying to prevent people moving could be depriving them of one of the most powerful adaptation strategies they have.
Alex Randall works for the Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN). He coordinates COIN’s work on migration, displacement and climate change. www.climatemigration.org.uk
Read COIN’s Myth Buster document for more on common misconceptions about climate change migration.