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<updated>2025-04-04T14:08:01Z</updated>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[DeBriefed 4 April 2025: Scientists issue Trump ‘SOS’; EU climate goal in jeopardy; Deep-sea mining talks]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/57022"/>
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<updated>2025-04-04T14:08:01Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p><em>Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. </em><br><em>An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.</em></p><section id="This-week-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#This-week-1">§</a> This week</h2><h3><strong>Trump ‘SOS’</strong></h3><p><strong>‘CHAOS’ GRIPS: </strong>More than 1,900 scientists from US national academies of sciences, engineering and medicine wrote an “SOS letter” warning of the risks to science imposed by the current administration’s grant cuts and mass layoffs, reported the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/31/scientists-letter-trump-administration">Guardian</a>. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/01/trump-cuts-noaa-spam-emails">Guardian</a> also said a “sense of chaos has gripped” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, after Trump-sanctioned layoffs have affected 20% of staff. </p><p><strong>WEAKER STANDARDS:</strong> Trump is weighing returning to weaker car emissions standards from 2020, saying pollution limits introduced by Joe Biden are “too onerous” for motor companies, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-31/trump-says-he-ll-return-less-stringent-auto-emissions-standards?sref=Oz9Q3OZU">Bloomberg</a> reported. The US transportation sector is the country’s leading source of greenhouse gas emissions. </p><p><strong>TARIFFS TURMOIL: </strong>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/climate/trump-tariff-clean-energy-transition.html">New York Times</a> said that the renewable energy industry in the US is “bracing for particularly large effects” from Trump’s ongoing tariffs war with the rest of the world. It noted that the turmoil is “expected to drive up the costs of nearly every component of clean-energy production in the US, from the steel in wind turbines to the batteries in electric vehicles”.</p></section><section id="Around-the-world-2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Around-the-world-2">§</a> Around the world</h2><ul><li><strong>SOFTENING GOALS: </strong>EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is considering softening the bloc’s 2040 climate goal amid a “backlash” from some quarters, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-exploring-weaker-2040-climate-goal-90-greenhouse-gas-cut-wopke-hoekstra/">Politico</a> said. A second <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-delays-2040-climate-target-release-until-before-summer-2/">Politico</a> story reported that the release of the goal will be delayed while Hoekstra “struggles” to rally support. </li><li><strong>COAL STICKS:</strong> The world’s total coal-fired power “inched up” by 18.8 gigawatts in 2024, the lowest rise in two decades, with new additions in China and India continuing to offset closures elsewhere, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-coal-power-capacity-inches-up-2024-data-shows-2025-04-03/">Reuters</a> coverage of a new Global Energy Monitor report.</li><li><strong>ASIA HEAT: </strong>Large swathes of India will experience intense heatwaves this summer with above normal temperatures expected across much of the country, the nation’s meteorological office has warned, according to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yl5g58k17o">BBC News</a>.</li><li><strong>RENEWABLE AFRICA:</strong> Africa increased its renewable energy capacity by 6.7% last year, equivalent to 4.2GW, according to an International Renewable Energy Agency report covered by <a href="https://energycapitalpower.com/africa-expands-renewable-energy-capacity-amid-global-surge/">Energy Capital and Power</a>. Egypt, Ethiopia and South Africa were among countries to build the most clean power.</li></ul></section><section id="40--3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#40--3">§</a> 40%</h2><p>The percentage by which the “average person would become poorer” if the world warmed by 4C, according to an <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adbd58">Environmental Research Letters</a> study covered by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/01/average-person-will-be-40-poorer-if-world-warms-by-4c-new-research-shows">Guardian</a>.</p></section><section id="Latest-climate-research-4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Latest-climate-research-4">§</a> Latest climate research</h2><ul><li>An “extraordinary” heatwave in Central Asia in March was made up to 10C hotter by human-caused climate change, a new <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extraordinary-march-heatwave-in-central-asia-up-to-10-c-hotter-in-a-warming-climate/">World Weather Attribution</a> analysis found.</li><li>A <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2421281122">Proceedings of the National Academy of Science</a> study found that the limits of human heat tolerance are lower than previous estimates.</li><li>Climate change has played a dominant role in destabilising communities of plankton, microorganisms that form the basis of the food web for marine wildlife, a new study in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02206-3">Communications Earth and Environment</a> found. </li></ul><p>(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/eu-exploring-weaker-2040-climate-goal/">Monday</a>, <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/us-more-than-1900-scientists-write-letter-in-sos-over-trumps-attacks-on-science/">Tuesday</a>, <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/former-world-leaders-urge-eu-to-hold-the-line-on-climate/">Wednesday</a>, <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/us-banks-predict-climate-goals-will-fail-but-air-conditioning-firms-will-thrive/">Thursday</a> and <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/eu-delays-2040-climate-target-release-until-before-summer/">Friday</a>.)</p></section><section id="Captured-5"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Captured-5">§</a> Captured</h2><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/China_Solar_Exports.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Annual solar panel exports from China, GW, to the global south (red) and the global north (blue).</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>China’s exports of solar panels to the global south have doubled in the past two years, overtaking global-north sales for the first time since 2018, according to data from the thinktank Ember explained in a new <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/guest-post-saudi-arabias-surprisingly-large-imports-of-solar-panels-from-china/">Carbon Brief</a> guest post. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan were among the top importers of Chinese solar panels in 2024. </p></section><section id="Spotlight-6"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Spotlight-6">§</a> Spotlight</h2><h3><strong>Deep-sea mining talks</strong></h3><p><em>Carbon Brief explains the outcomes of the latest deep-sea mining talks held last week in Jamaica.</em></p><p>The deep sea has emerged as a new mining frontier in the global race towards energy security, with countries vying to explore and exploit its reserves of metals, such as nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese.</p><p>These minerals – critical to the energy transition – are held in the deep ocean’s nodules, hydrothermal vents and crusts, but the impacts of mining these deposits are still far from being fully understood.</p><p>In 2021, the Pacific island state of Nauru triggered a legal process for countries to agree rules around mining the seabed, or – in their absence – allow commercial mining of the deep sea to begin by 2025.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf">UN Convention on the Law of the Sea</a> (UNCLOS) is an international treaty that provides a framework to regulate the use of the world’s seas and oceans.</p><p>Among other bodies and orders, UNCLOS established the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which is based in Kingston, Jamaica, and oversees all resource extraction in the deep sea.</p><p>From 17-28 March this year, the ISA held the <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/news/the-council-of-the-international-seabed-authority-concludes-part-i-of-its-thirtieth-session/">first part</a> of its 30th annual session, with the aim of making progress on draft rules to govern commercial deep-sea mining.</p><h3>Jamaica talks</h3><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/54416391787_36e40474ae_o-1.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - The 30th meeting of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica. Credit: International Seabed Authority - The 30th meeting of the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica.</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>The ISA <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/news/the-council-of-the-international-seabed-authority-concludes-part-i-of-its-thirtieth-session/">said</a> that there was “significant progress” on various aspects at the meeting and other areas that “require further deliberation”. </p><p>Some of this progress is the agreement to use the term “harmful effects” rather than “serious harm” to the marine environment, which aligns with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-30-1-summary?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ENB%20Update%20-%2031%20March%202025&utm_content=ENB%20Update%20-%2031%20March%202025+CID_152890dbe5b496018eb843ac3ea9db64&utm_source=cm&utm_term=Read%20the%20summary">Earth Negotiations Bulletin</a> noted.</p><p>However, it added that there were “major issues unresolved”, related to “regulations” crucial for the protection of the marine environment, such as environmental impact assessments and the rights and interests of coastal states.</p><p><a href="https://deep-sea-conservation.org/team/duncan-currie/">Duncan Currie</a>, the international legal advisor to the <a href="https://deep-sea-conservation.org/">Deep-Sea Conservation Coalition</a>, said parties did not agree on any of the 55 reviewed regulations, but rather just discussed their positions on those regulations.</p><p>He also pointed out the lack of discussion over financial matters, liability, the royalties that are paid and the benefit sharing from deep-sea mining, telling Carbon Brief:</p><blockquote><p>“There are 80 standards and guidelines that can’t be developed until [countries] have developed the regulations. I think most people think that they’re quite a long way away from being adopted.” </p></blockquote><h3>Current and future outlook</h3><p>So far, <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-30-1-summary?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ENB%20Update%20-%2031%20March%202025&utm_content=ENB%20Update%20-%2031%20March%202025+CID_152890dbe5b496018eb843ac3ea9db64&utm_source=cm&utm_term=Read%20the%20summary">32 ISA member</a> states are in favour of a moratorium on deep-sea mining, while other countries are seeking to exploit minerals in the seafloor “<a href="https://enb.iisd.org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-30-1-summary?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ENB%20Update%20-%2031%20March%202025&utm_content=ENB%20Update%20-%2031%20March%202025+CID_152890dbe5b496018eb843ac3ea9db64&utm_source=cm&utm_term=Read%20the%20summary">as soon as possible</a>”. </p><p>Among those promoting the deep-sea mining industry are India, China and Norway, while countries such as Palau, Fiji and Samoa are promoting a “pause on deep-sea mining until its ecological impacts are better understood”, <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/deep-sea-mining/index.html">Carbon Brief</a> previously reported.</p><p>In a surprise move that sent “<a href="https://enb.iisd.org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-30-1-summary">alarm bells ringing</a>” in the ISA and beyond, the US subsidiary of the Metals Company <a href="https://investors.metals.co/news-releases/news-release-details/metals-company-apply-permits-under-existing-us-mining-code-deep">announced</a> on 27 March that it is moving ahead with applying for deep-sea exploration permits under existing US legislation in the second quarter of 2025.</p><p>The announcement came on the last day of the ISA talks, where it dominated discussions at the end of the meeting.</p><p>On 31 March, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/white-house-weighs-executive-order-fast-track-deep-sea-mining-sources-say-2025-03-31/">Reuters</a> reported that the Trump administration is “weighing an executive order” that could let miners bypass the ISA, its safeguards and “fast-track” permits. The US is not a party to UNCLOS.</p><p>Both developments signal that the ISA is “at a crossroads”, according to the <a href="https://enb.iisd.org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-30-1-summary">Earth News Bulletin</a>, and its next session in July will be closely watched for how the body responds to a potential unilateral action to allow deep sea-mining.</p></section><section id="Watch--read--listen-7"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Watch--read--listen-7">§</a> Watch, read, listen</h2><p><strong>NOT WITH SPORTS: </strong>A <a href="https://www.discoveryplus.com/gb/show/playing-for-our-future">Discovery+</a> documentary explored how extreme weather is already affecting sport events.</p><p><strong>STRENGTHENING MENTAL HEALTH:</strong> A psychologist writing in the <a href="https://therevelator.org/psychological-effects-climate-change/">Revelator</a> offered strategies to reduce the effects of climate change on mental health. </p><p><strong>FOSSIL LOBBY: </strong>Former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and political strategist Tom Rivett-Carnac addressed the fossil fuel lobby within COPs on their <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/outrage-optimism-the-climate-podcast/id1459416461">Outrage and Optimism</a> podcast.</p></section><section id="Coming-up-8"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Coming-up-8">§</a> Coming up</h2><ul><li><strong>2-5 April:</strong> <a href="https://gylc.org/summit/">Global Youth Climate Summit</a>, Belo Horizonte, Brazil</li><li><strong>7 April:</strong> International Mother Earth Day</li><li><strong>7-11 April: </strong><a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/Pages/PREVIEW-MEPC-83.aspx">International Maritime Organization Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting</a> (MEPC 83), London</li></ul></section><section id="Pick-of-the-jobs-9"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Pick-of-the-jobs-9">§</a> Pick of the jobs</h2><ul><li><strong>Sky News</strong>, <a href="https://the-dots.com/jobs/senior-news-editor-science-climate-technology-236702">senior news editor – science, climate and technology</a> | Salary: Unknown. Location: London</li><li><strong>Australian National University</strong>, <a href="https://salutemyjob.com/jobs/postdoctoral-research-fellow-in-climate-systems-canberra-australian-capital-territory/1616931211-2/">postdoctoral research fellow in climate systems</a> | Salary: AU$85,010-$131,227. Location: Canberra, Australia</li><li><strong>Dialogue Earth</strong>, <a href="https://dialogue.earth/en/jobs/social-media-officer/">social media officer</a> | Salary: £36,035 per annum. Location: London</li><li><strong>Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment</strong>, <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/about/vacancies/#lab">policy officer (adaptation policy and governance)</a> | Salary: from £42,679-£54,730. Location: London</li></ul><p><em>DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to </em><a href="mailto:debriefed@carbonbrief.org" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>debriefed@carbonbrief.org</em></a>.</p><p><em>This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for <a href="https://subscribepage.io/carbonbrief" rel="noreferrer noopener">free here.</a></em></p></section> ]]>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[China Briefing 3 April 2025: Solar exports; Carbon market expansion; Leaders’ climate commitments ]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/57017"/>
<id>http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/57017</id>
<updated>2025-04-03T16:13:13Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>W<em>elcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.</em></p><p><em><em>China Briefing</em></em> <em>handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight.</em> <em>Subscribe for <a href="https://subscribepage.io/carbonbrief" rel="noreferrer noopener">free here.</a></em></p><section id="Key-developments-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Key-developments-1">§</a> Key developments</h2><h3>Steel, aluminium and cement on notice</h3><p><strong>ETS EXPANSION: </strong>China will expand its emissions trading system (<a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">ETS</a>) to include the steel, cement and aluminium industries, which will “require an additional 1,500 firms to purchase credits to cover their emissions”, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/china-expand-carbon-trading-market-steel-cement-aluminium-2025-03-26/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reuters</a> reported. (The <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html#section-ministry-of-ecology-and-environment" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ministry of Ecology and Environment</a> proposed the <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/explainer-chinas-carbon-market-to-cover-steel-aluminium-and-cement-in-2024/" rel="noreferrer noopener">expansion</a> in a draft policy last year. Read Carbon Brief’s <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/in-depth-qa-will-chinas-emissions-trading-scheme-help-tackle-climate-change/" rel="noreferrer noopener">in-depth Q&A on the ETS</a>.) The newswire added that the system would now cover 8bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), or “more than 60% of China’s total emissions”, up from 40% currently. The expansion demonstrates a “strong political will [in China] to achieve the country’s ‘<a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html?utm_content=bufferfd832&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#section-dual-carbon-goals" rel="noreferrer noopener">dual-carbon’ goals</a>” despite a tense geopolitical climate and domestic “economic pressures”, the Shanghai-based news outlet <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1016883" rel="noreferrer noopener">Sixth Tone</a> quoted <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/about-us/staff/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shen Xinyi</a>, researcher at the <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air</a> (CREA), as saying. Finance news outlet <a href="https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-addition-of-steel-sector-to-carbon-market-brings-short-term-hurdles-long-term-gains-experts-say" rel="noreferrer noopener">Yicai</a> said the expansion will “intensify the [steel] sector’s fragmentation and force outdated production capacity to shut”, but in the long term would encourage “technological innovation and investment” in the “green transition”. </p><p><strong>‘CLEAN’ ALUMINIUM: </strong>Aluminium producers are expected to increase their use of “clean energy” to 30% of their total energy use by 2027 according to a new industry development plan, energy news outlet <a href="https://newenergy.in-en.com/html/newenergy-2440093.shtml" rel="noreferrer noopener">International Energy Net</a> reported, adding that China also aims to “raise output of recycled aluminium to more than 15m tonnes”. (This would more than double its <a href="https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101515077/chinas-recycled-aluminum-industry-sets-sail-for-a-new-journey" rel="noreferrer noopener">2020 output</a>. China’s production of “primary” aluminium made from metal ore is around 44m tonnes per year.) The plan also urges aluminium producers to “participate in renewables projects, such as solar, wind, hydrogen and energy storage”, as well as “engage in green electricity trading, purchase <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html#section-gecs" rel="noreferrer noopener">green electricity certificates (GECs)</a>…and [invest] in clean-power projects to increase clean energy use”, according to industry news outlet <a href="https://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20250328/1434455.shtml" rel="noreferrer noopener">BJX News</a>. <a href="https://pdpwbj.clicks.mlsend.com/tl/c/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjI0OTYxNyxcImxcIjoxNTAzNzUxMzc4NTM1NzI4ODgsXCJyXCI6MTUwMzc1MTU4NzA5NzQ5MDg5fSIsInMiOiJhMTgwNWVmOTEzZjdjZTQ0In0" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bloomberg</a> said that the directive – which “mirrors similar guidance…given to copper smelters” – also tightens rules for building new aluminium plants in a “bid to tackle overcapacity”. </p><p><strong>GRID INVESTMENT: </strong>Meanwhile, investments in China’s electricity grid “jumped by about 33% in the first two months” of 2025 to around 44bn yuan ($6bn), <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/china-accelerates-grid-spending-to-absorb-deluge-of-solar-power" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bloomberg</a> reported, although it noted this was “still below the pace needed” to meet China’s 2025 spending <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-state-grid-outlays-record-887-bln-investment-2025-2025-01-15/">target</a> of 650bn yuan ($89bn). Separately, China has launched 30 projects in nine cities to pilot the use of electric vehicle batteries in supporting the grid, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-launch-grid-connected-car-projects-balance-power-supply-2025-04-02/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reuters</a> reported. Elsewhere, China’s finance ministry pledged to provide more financial support in 2025 for meeting China’s climate goals and the promotion of renewable energy and the low-carbon transition of “key industries”, <a href="https://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20250324/1433672.shtml">BJX News</a> reported. </p><h3>Low-carbon leadership</h3><div> <div data-whatwhere="title">上微信关注《碳简报》</div> <div data-whatwhere="content"> <div> <div></div> <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/qrcode_for_gh_9c056d53c2b7_258-1.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>) <div></div> </div> </div></div><p><strong>‘COMMANDING HEIGHTS’: </strong>China must “aim for the commanding heights of future science, technology and industrial development” in “new energy” and other technological “frontiers”, Chinese president Xi Jinping said in a speech published by <a href="http://www.qstheory.cn/20250330/f377de1042cc451bb9840b495d33c731/c.html">Qiushi</a>, the country’s top ideological journal. The speech focused on key tasks for building China’s strength in science and technology, noting: “Green [and] low-carbon technologies have contributed significantly to…a beautiful China.” Xi also raised the importance of “international” cooperation, such as for “jointly respond[ing] to global challenges such as climate change…[and] energy security”.</p><p><strong>ASIA’S DAVOS: </strong>Meanwhile, China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said at the 2025 Boao forum – an event also known as <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/03/25/2025/china-courts-foreign-businesses-at-asias-davos">Asia’s Davos</a> – that the “political will of member nations, market forces and technology” meant that the global energy transition is “irreversible”, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/china-envoy-sees-global-climate-fight-advancing-even-without-us">Bloomberg</a> reported. State broadcaster <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-28/Why-does-the-climate-action-fund-matter-Guests-at-Boao-Forum-speak-1C6ICDyaUZG/p.html">CGTN</a> quoted Liu saying at the event, held in Hainan province last week, that one key “challenge” would be delivering the $300bn climate-finance goal agreed at <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/cop29-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-baku/">COP29</a>. It quoted him adding: “We need to continue to push developed country parties to undertake their responsibility for this payment.” Liu also said a “friendly trade environment and a favorable market environment” is needed for low-carbon technologies to “flow freely” around the world, the Communist party-affiliated <a href="http://en.people.cn/n3/2025/0327/c90000-20294766.html">People’s Daily</a> reported. Executive vice-premier Ding Xuexiang called on countries to “firmly oppose trade and investment protectionism” in his keynote speech at the event, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/china-vice-premier-urges-asia-leaders-to-resist-protectionism">Bloomberg</a> said. (Ding is China’s “<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3217674/chinese-vice-premiers-meeting-cop28-president-reveals-beijings-climate-leadership-and-intent">top decision-maker</a>” on climate policy.)</p><p><strong>TÊTE-À-TÊTE: </strong>Elsewhere, China and France “issued a joint statement on climate change…marking the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement”, the state-run newspaper <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202503/27/WS67e50c1aa3101d4e4dc2b362.html">China Daily</a> said, in which the nations “reaffirmed their shared commitment to enhancing international cooperation to address climate challenges”. <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-27/China-France-issue-joint-statement-on-climate-change-1C55f8nD2z6/p.html">CGTN</a> published the <a href="https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/china/news/2025/article/joint-statement-between-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-french-republic">full text</a> of the statement, in which China and France pledged “enhanced communication about their respective <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/experts-what-to-expect-in-chinas-climate-pledge-for-2035/">upcoming</a> new ambitious [<a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/explainer-what-are-intended-nationally-determined-contributions/">nationally determined contributions</a>] which will cover all economic areas and greenhouse gases, and be aligned with the Paris Agreement goals”. The statement also pledged “continuous efforts to transition away from fossil fuels”. The two countries separately agreed to cooperate on “nuclear energy”, “connected vehicles” and “green hydrogen”, the Singapore-based <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-france-to-hold-high-level-strategic-and-economic-dialogues-in-2025">Straits Times</a> said. </p><p><strong>GREEN FINANCE: </strong>China has launched a 6bn yuan ($825m) green sovereign bond on the London Stock Exchange in “what is expected to be the first in a series of sales that will expand its footprint in the market”, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/chinas-sell-first-global-green-sovereign-bond-wednesday-2025-04-01/">Reuters</a> reported. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/china-starts-marketing-its-first-sovereign-green-bond">Bloomberg</a> said it “highlight[ed China’s] ambitions to bolster its environmental credentials to investors”. (The plan to issue the bond was first announced during Rachel Reeves’ <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/china-briefing-23-january-2025-chinas-climate-concern-over-trump-peak-oil-debate-chinas-energy-storage-lead/">visit</a> to Beijing in January).</p><h3>Record trade tensions</h3><p><strong>‘LIBERATION DAY’: </strong>The US imposed a new total tariff rate of <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3305013/dust-settles-trumps-liberation-day-whats-chinas-effective-tariff-rate?tpcc=GME-O-enlz-uv&utm_source=cm&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20250403_Explainers_B2C&utm_campaign=GME-O-enlz-uv&UUID=8287b2da-4b9e-4032-83f1-c2a8414ad5dd&CMCampaignID=54de404768200845b2def395db4b002f">at least</a> 54% on goods from China, in a move that could encourage China to “branch out and find new markets for its clean-energy technology, accelerating their adoption”, the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trumps-tariffs-are-expected-to-undermine-the-clean-energy-transition/">Scientific American</a> said. (Chinese exports of clean-energy technologies to the US were <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/why-chinas-clean-energy-need-not-fear-us-tariffs/">already low</a> due to existing tariffs.) <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/02/trump-tariffs-evs-tesla-musk-jobs-00264134">Politico</a> reported that, as “a lot of” the basic materials for electric vehicle (EV) batteries are sourced from China, US EV manufacturers will be “hit” by the tariffs. Ahead of the announcement, a report on “foreign trade barriers” from the US government dedicated almost 50 of its 400-pages to China, criticising China’s aim to “dominat[e]” industries such as “<a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/qa-the-global-trade-war-over-chinas-booming-ev-industry/">new energy vehicles</a>”, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/business/economy/ustr-report-trade-barriers.html">New York Times</a> reported. China “firmly opposes” the tariffs, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-urges-us-cancel-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-04-03/">Reuters</a> quoted China’s commerce ministry as saying. (Read <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/experts-what-do-trumps-tariffs-mean-for-global-climate-action/">Carbon Brief’s</a> article for expert views on the climate impacts of Trump’s tariffs)</p><p><strong>EU-CHINA TALKS: </strong>China and the EU confirmed that they “agreed to restart talks on minimum [import] price[s]” for Chinese EVs “as soon as possible”, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-eu-agree-restart-talks-soon-minimum-price-commitment-chinese-evs-commerce-2025-04-03/">Reuters</a>. While Chinese battery EV exports to the EU have “slowed” due to EU tariffs, China’s “exports of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles” – which are not subject to tariffs – “surged” in January and February 2025, the Hong Kong-based <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3303825/unaffected-eus-tariffs-evs-chinas-hybrid-vehicle-exports-surge-bloc">South China Morning Post</a> said. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-export-controls-freeze-antimony-shipments-eu-october-2025-03-20/">Reuters</a> said China “has not shipped any antimony”, a critical mineral used in solar-panel manufacturing, to the EU since it was placed under <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/qa-what-could-a-us-china-trade-war-mean-for-the-energy-transition/">export controls</a> in October. Meanwhile, Japan placed a 95% anti-dumping duty on imports of Chinese graphite electrodes, which are used in technologies such as electric arc furnace steelmaking and lithium-ion batteries, another <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/japan-impose-tariffs-chinas-graphite-electrodes-saturday-nhk-reports-2025-03-25/">Reuters</a> article reported.</p><p><strong>TRADE INVESTIGATIONS: </strong>China was the subject of a “record number of trade investigations by [World Trade Organization] members last year”, triggered by a boom in exports, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c4bce44e-9c66-4d74-bebd-0f35f0ea007f">Financial Times</a> reported. It said the 198 trade investigations in 2024 “alleging dumping or illegal subsidies” was double the previous year’s total.</p><h3>Pricing reform </h3><p><strong>HIGH-LEVEL OPINIONS:</strong> The top offices of the <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html#section-the-communist-party-of-china">Chinese Communist Party</a> and <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html#section-state-council">State Council</a> issued joint opinions on the need to improve pricing mechanisms, which reiterated calls for “market-oriented reform of prices” for energy, reform of feed-in tariffs – which have been used to set prices for coal and renewables – and improving power purchasing systems, <a href="http://www.news.cn/politics/zywj/20250402/ffb5a0bf5a524ad48b70bdbb7f067f45/c.html">Xinhua</a> reported. The document also called for the establishment of “sound” pricing mechanisms for gas, energy storage and other energy flexibility providers, which could indicate plans for “further rolling out capacity mechanisms” to cover further power generation sources in addition to coal, wrote <a href="https://www.clearbluemarkets.com/our-team">Yan Qin</a>, principal analyst at <a href="https://www.clearbluemarkets.com/">ClearBlue Markets</a>, on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/yan-qin-b167842b_market-gas-activity-7313126826602590209-ZXz9/">LinkedIn</a>. </p><p><strong>OPTIMISING RESOURCES:</strong> A representative of the <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html#section-national-development-and-reform-commission-ndrc">National Development and Reform Commission</a> (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, told business newspaper <a href="https://www.cnenergynews.cn/hangye/2025/04/03/detail_news_20250403207643.html">Daily Economic News</a> that improved pricing mechanisms are the foundation of a better market-oriented economy. The outlet also quoted Lin Weibin, director of the energy policy research office of the <a href="https://en.cers.org.cn">China Energy Research Society</a>, saying that an important element of improving pricing mechanisms is to “accelerate the construction of the electricity spot market, and promote the construction of a unified national electricity market”. The opinions are a “powerful impetus” to develop systems that make the use of “energy resources” more efficient and optimise China’s energy structure, <a href="http://www.news.cn/politics/zywj/20250402/ffb5a0bf5a524ad48b70bdbb7f067f45/c.html">Xinhua</a> quoted Deng Yusong, a researcher at the government-backed thinktank <a href="https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/navigating-belt-road-initiative-toolkit/stakeholders/chinese-government/development-research-center-state-council">Development Research Center of the State Council</a>, as saying.</p></section><section id="Spotlight--2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Spotlight--2">§</a> Spotlight </h2><h3><strong>Guest post: China’s surging solar exports to the global south</strong></h3><p><em>China’s exports of solar panels to the global south have doubled in the past two years, overtaking global-north sales for the first time since 2018, says a recent Carbon Brief </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/guest-post-saudi-arabias-surprisingly-large-imports-of-solar-panels-from-china/"><em>guest post</em></a><em>.</em></p><p><em>The guest post is by Dave Jones and Libby Copsey, respectively global insights programme director and data developer at thinktank </em><a href="https://ember-energy.org/"><em>Ember</em></a><em>. Ember’s China solar PV export explorer tracks shipments to more than 200 countries, showing that global south countries, such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and India, were among the top importers of Chinese solar panels in 2024.</em></p><p><em>In this issue, Carbon Brief highlights the key findings of the guest post. The </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/guest-post-saudi-arabias-surprisingly-large-imports-of-solar-panels-from-china/"><em>full article</em></a><em> is available on Carbon Brief’s website.</em></p><h3>Top importers </h3><p>China’s solar panel exports rose by 10% in 2024, with imports by global-south countries rising by 32% and those to the global north falling by 6%, according to Ember’s data.</p><p>Global-south imports more than doubled from 60 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to 126GW in 2024. That surpassed global-north imports, which were only 12% more in 2024 than in 2022, as shown on the chart below.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/China_Solar_Exports.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Annual solar panel exports from China, GW, to the global south (red) and the global north (blue). Categorisation as “global south” or “global north” from UNCTAD. Source: Ember. - Annual solar panel exports from China, GW, to the global south (red) and the global north (blue). </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>The Netherlands was the biggest importer in 2024 and has been every year since 2019, as a result of Rotterdam serving as an import hub for much of continental Europe. The next four places were all global-south countries.</p><p>Brazil was in second place, importing more than 20GW for the second year in a row. However, the <a href="https://canalsolar.com.br/cotas-imposto-importacao-paineis-solares/">imposition of import taxes</a> by the government, the <a href="https://www.absolar.org.br/noticia/https-canalsolar-com-br-energia-solar-capacidade-instalada-brasil-4/">refusal</a> of electricity distributors to connect new solar systems and solar “<a href="https://ratedpower.com/glossary/curtailment/">curtailment</a>” are all causing headwinds in 2025. </p><p>Pakistan and Saudi Arabia jumped to third and fourth, respectively. These two countries have had almost identical imports of Chinese solar panels for the past two years. They stood at 8GW in 2023 and then more than doubled to 17GW in 2024, the export explorer shows. </p><p>However, Pakistan has mainly imported panels for small-scale “<a href="https://drawdown.org/solutions/distributed-solar-photovoltaics">distributed</a>” installations. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s import growth has been driven almost entirely by desert solar parks, complete with some battery storage and paid for by international energy companies.</p><p>India was in fifth place in 2024. Its module imports remained similar to those in 2023, but its installations rose to a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/india-added-24-5-gw-solar-and-3-4-gw-wind-capacity-in-2024-sets-new-records/articleshow/117085849.cms?from=mdr">record</a> high, enabled by a <a href="https://www.fortuneindia.com/macro/indias-solar-boom-domestic-manufacturing-surges-as-exports-soar/120472#:~:text=of%20several%20gigawatts.-,The%20country's%20solar%20cell%20manufacturing%20capacity%20is%20expected%20to%20reach,2020%20and%20continues%20to%20grow.">step up</a> in new domestic solar panel manufacturing capacity. </p><p>In January 2025, that helped India hit 100GW of <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/02/07/india-hits-100-gw-solar-milestone/">solar installed</a>, according to government figures. India is partly relying on Chinese imports, whilst simultaneously scaling up its own manufacturing industry.</p><h3>New markets</h3><p>There were 15 countries that saw a large uptick in imports of Chinese solar panels towards the end of 2024.</p><p>In particular, there were large increases in Nigeria, Algeria and Iraq, where there is clear evidence that demand for panels is growing.</p><p>Nigeria’s growth was driven by blackouts in 2024 and the <a href="https://www.pvknowhow.com/installed-solar-capacity-reach-385-7mwp-nigeria/">removal of fuel subsidies</a>, Iraq is constructing its <a href="https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/work-continues-on-iraqs-first-solar-energy-project/">first large solar plant</a>, while Algeria has a <a href="https://globalflowcontrol.com/newsroom/sonelgaz-algeria-plans-the-construction-of-20-photovoltaic-solar-power-plants/">plan</a> for 3GW of solar projects.</p><p>For a cluster of a further 12 countries, which includes many small African and Latin American countries, it is less clear if the recent uptick in solar panel imports is a structural change that will continue into 2025 and beyond.</p><p>There are large incentives for China’s solar manufacturing companies to meet year-end targets, so it is possible that containers of solar panels were sold to these countries at discounted rates to help meet these goals.</p><p>The recent spike in imports are nevertheless quite large in the context of the small electricity systems of many of these countries. As such, these solar panels would provide a relatively meaningful increase in renewable electricity generation if they go on to be installed.</p><h3>Reducing reliance</h3><p>China itself – the biggest of all the global-south solar markets – installed more solar panels than it exported for the second year in a row.</p><p>It installed 333GW of solar capacity domestically in 2024, some 38% more than the 242GW of solar panels that it exported.</p><p>Solar exports rose by 10% year-on-year, which was a significant slowdown from the rate of growth seen in recent years. However, solar installations outside of China grew by 30%.</p><p>This demonstrates a step-up in ambitions to reduce reliance on Chinese solar panel imports by a number of countries around the world. </p></section><section id="Watch--read--listen-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Watch--read--listen-3">§</a> Watch, read, listen</h2><p><strong>SHIFTING MINDSETS: </strong>Business news outlet <a href="https://www.jiemian.com/article/12530229.html">Jiemian</a> interviewed the owner of a struggling clean-energy technology distributor in Germany about the challenges of importing Chinese energy products to the EU.</p><p><strong>PATIENT CAPITAL?: </strong><a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2025/03/debunking-the-patient-capital-myth-the-reality-of-chinas-resource-backed-lending-practices/?utm_campaign=ecsp&utm_medium=email&utm_source=event&emci=19658f80-350b-f011-90cd-0022482a9fb7&emdi=b66a1e14-460b-f011-90cd-0022482a9fb7&ceid=419118">New Security Beat</a> explored how China is using “resource-backed loans” as part of its overseas development finance strategy, recouping loan payments in the form of oil, minerals and other national resources.</p><p><strong>NO MORE BF-BOF: </strong>A new report by consultancy <a href="https://www.globalefficiencyintel.com/chinas-steel-transformation-from-blast-furnaces-to-electric-arc-furnaces">Global Efficiency Intelligence</a> examined how China can increase uptake of electric arc furnaces in its carbon-intensive steel industry.</p><p><strong>PLOTTING THE FUTURE: </strong>Kaare Sandholt, chief international advisor at the Energy Research Institute, spoke with <a href="https://pdpwbj.clicks.mlsend.com/tf/cl/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjI0OTYxNyxcImxcIjoxNTAxMjcyNTMxNDA4MDE0ODYsXCJyXCI6MTUwMTI3MjcyNTY4ODE3NTY3fSIsInMiOiI3MDEwZDM3MzMwNDE1MDA3In0">Environment China</a> about the thinktank’s modelling of China’s energy transition, which he recently wrote about for <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/guest-post-china-will-need-10000gw-of-wind-and-solar-by-2060/">Carbon Brief</a>.</p></section><section id="26--4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#26--4">§</a> 26%</h2><p>The amount by which China’s glacier area has shrunk since 1960, due to rapid global warming, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/chinas-glacier-area-shrinks-by-26-over-six-decades-2025-03-26/">Reuters</a> reported. The newswire added that 7,000 small glaciers have disappeared completely in China during this period.</p></section><section id="New-science--5"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#New-science--5">§</a> New science </h2><p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-025-00233-6#Sec6"><strong>Unpacking China’s climate policy mixes shows a disconnect between policy density and intensity in the post-Paris era</strong></a></p><p><em>npj Climate Action</em></p><p>A new study analysing China’s climate policy found that a higher “density”, or number, of climate policies “does not equate to stronger [climate] action”. The authors created a dataset of 358 climate-related policies adopted by China’s central government from 2016-22. They found “significant variation” in how much different sectors were aligned with China’s most recent <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/experts-what-to-expect-in-chinas-climate-pledge-for-2035/">nationally determined contribution</a> (NDC) – especially among high-emitting sectors.</p><p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02056-z"><strong>Expanding the emissions trading system coverage can increase the cost competitiveness of low-carbon ammonia in China</strong></a></p><p><em>Communications Earth & Environment</em></p><p>An emissions trading system (<a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/glossary/china/index.html">ETS</a>) is needed in order for ammonia produced with renewable energy – known as “renewable ammonia” – to achieve “cost parity” with conventional ammonia before 2040, according to new research. The authors used models to project the economic and carbon costs of seven ammonia production technologies, evaluating the impact of China’s ETS on the <a href="https://law.stanford.edu/index.php?webauth-document=publication/443311/doc/slspublic/Reichelstein%20and%20Bastian%20LPC.pdf">levelised cost</a> of ammonia over 2018-60. Expanding the ETS to cover the lifecycle of ammonia production could allow “renewable ammonia” to achieve cost parity 6-37 years sooner than if the system was not implemented, it added.</p><p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02296-z"><strong>China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated</strong></a></p><p><em>Nature Climate Change</em></p><p>A new study found that China’s carbon sinks resulting from land-use change over the past four decades have been underestimated. The study analysed <a href="https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Carbon_flux">carbon fluxes</a> linked to land-use change between 1981-2020, using independent models and a new dataset integrating remote sensing with China’s national forest inventory. It added that, over the past 40 years, China’s net carbon flux from land-use change removed 7.3bn tonnes of CO2, with the annual average sink since 2001 totalling 0.5bn tonnes of CO2.</p><p><em>China Briefing is compiled by </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/wanyuansong/"><em>Wanyuan Song</em></a><em> and </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/anikapatel/"><em>Anika Patel</em></a><em>. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/simonevans/"><em>Dr Simon Evans</em></a><em>. Please send tips and feedback to </em><a href="mailto:china@carbonbrief.org"><em>china@carbonbrief.org</em></a><em> </em></p></section> ]]>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[Global warming is ‘exposing’ new coastlines and islands as Arctic glaciers shrink]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/57003"/>
<id>http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/57003</id>
<updated>2025-04-01T14:45:28Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>Retreating glaciers created 2,500km of “new” coastline and 35 “new” islands in the Arctic between 2000 and 2020, according to a new study.</p><p>The research uses satellite images of more than 1,700 glaciers in Greenland, Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, Russian Arctic, Iceland and Svalbard. </p><p>The findings show that 85% of these glaciers retreated over 2000-20, revealing 123km of new coastline per year on average.</p><p>The study, published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02282-5" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nature Climate Change</a>, links the acceleration in glacier melt to warmer ocean and air temperatures.</p><p>The authors find that just 101 glaciers – less than 6% of the total – were responsible for more than half of the total additional coastline length. </p><p>For example, the retreat of the <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26118-retreat-of-greenlands-zachariae-isstrom-glacier/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Zachariae Isstrom</a> glacier in north-east Greenland revealed 81km of new coastline alone.</p><p>The study warns that the freshly revealed coastlines are more prone to landslides, which may, in turn, create “dangerous tsunamis” that pose risks to human life and infrastructure. </p><p>A scientist not involved in the study tells Carbon Brief that it remains “unclear” what the implications of the new coastlines will be for the people and ecosystems of the Arctic. </p><p>He suggests that they “may become home to important ecosystems that play a hitherto unquantified role in the global carbon cycle”. </p><section id="Glacier-melt-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Glacier-melt-1">§</a> Glacier melt</h2><p>Glaciers are slow-moving rivers of ice found on <a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/glaciers" rel="noreferrer noopener">almost every continent</a> in the world. They typically advance downhill by a few <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/glacier-moving-rivers-ice/" rel="noreferrer noopener">centimetres</a> every day, driven by their own weight.</p><p>The head of a glacier is always found on land – typically at <a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/glaciers/science-glaciers" rel="noreferrer noopener">high altitude</a>, where temperatures are low. Here, precipitation and avalanches cause snow to build up on the surface of the glacier. Over time, the snow compacts into ice, adding mass to the glacier. </p><p>Meanwhile, the tail end of the glacier is typically found at lower elevations where the air is warmer. Here, melting ice and evaporating water cause glaciers to lose mass.</p><p>As the planet warms, glaciers are melting more rapidly. This often causes the bottom of the glacier – known as the “<a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/glaciers/science-glaciers" rel="noreferrer noopener">terminus</a>“, “snout” or “toe” – to recede, reducing the overall length of the glacier. This is known as terminus retreat.</p><p>Over 2000-19, glaciers collectively lost around <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/melting-glaciers-drove-21-of-sea-level-rise-over-past-two-decades/" rel="noreferrer noopener">267bn tonnes</a> (gigatonnes, or Gt) of ice every year. A recent <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/glacier-melt-threatens-water-supplies-for-two-billion-people-un-warns/" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a> by the UN warned that many glaciers will “inevitably” disappear entirely over the coming decades.</p><p>A separate study estimated that even if the world successfully limits global warming to 1.5C, glaciers could <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/half-of-worlds-glaciers-to-disappear-with-1-5c-of-global-warming/" rel="noreferrer noopener">lose a quarter</a> of their total mass by 2100. </p><p>Glaciers can be broadly split into categories based on their location. For example, while “land-terminating” glaciers end on land, “marine-terminating” glaciers flow into the ocean, where they often end in a “floating glacier tongue” that sits on the surface of the water.</p><p>When marine-terminating glaciers melt and retreat, new areas of coastline are often revealed. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33231-x" rel="noreferrer noopener">Research</a> shows that marine-terminating glaciers in the northern hemisphere have cumulatively lost 10Gt of mass every year over 2000-20 due to terminus retreat.</p><p>The northern hemisphere is home to around <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33231-x" rel="noreferrer noopener">1,500</a> of the world’s roughly <a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/glaciers/glacier-quick-facts" rel="noreferrer noopener">200,000</a> glaciers. </p><p>The new study assesses how much new coastline has been exposed due to terminus retreat in marine-terminating glaciers in the northern hemisphere over 2000-20.</p></section><section id="Satellite-monitoring-2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Satellite-monitoring-2">§</a> Satellite monitoring</h2><p>The authors used a pre-existing <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL096501" rel="noreferrer noopener">dataset</a> to identify all the marine-terminating glaciers in the northern hemisphere. They then manually assessed satellite imagery – mainly from <a href="https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-2" rel="noreferrer noopener">Sentinel-2</a> – to digitise the new coastline that was exposed as a result of glacier retreat around Greenland, Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, Russian Arctic, Iceland and Svalbard over 2000-20.</p><p><a href="https://www.muni.cz/en/people/236126-jan-kavan/teaching" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Jan Kavan</a> is the lead author of the study and a researcher at the <a href="https://www.jcu.cz/en/" rel="noreferrer noopener">University of South Bohemia</a>’s <a href="https://www.prf.jcu.cz/en/faculty/departments/centre-for-polar-ecology" rel="noreferrer noopener">Centre for Polar Ecology</a>. He tells Carbon Brief that the researchers opted for a manual approach because algorithms trained to identify the position of glaciers “don’t work very well” on coastlines.</p><p>This is because Arctic coastlines tend to be highly variable, Kavan explains. For example, glaciers near the coastline may be covered in debris – making it hard for an algorithm to recognise them. </p><p><a href="https://www.dundee.ac.uk/people/simon-cook" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Simon Cook</a> is a senior lecturer in environmental sciences at the <a href="https://www.dundee.ac.uk/" rel="noreferrer noopener">University of Dundee</a>, who wrote a “news and views” piece about the study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02275-4" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nature climate change</a>. He praises the study, telling Carbon Brief that manually identifying coastlines is “labour-intensive and slow work, but widely regarded to be robust”. </p><p>The authors inspected 1,704 marine-terminating glaciers in total. They find that 2,466km of new coastline formed between 2000 and 2020 – an average of 123km of new coastline every year. </p><p>The map below shows where the coastline was added (red) and lost (blue) due to changes in glacier terminus positions over 2000-20. The yellow circles the total length of new coastline added in different regions, where larger circles indicate greater additions.</p><div><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot_2025-04-01_at_14.19.44.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Arctic coastline added (red) and lost (blue) due to changes in glacier terminus positions over 2000-20. Source: Kavan et al (2025). - Map of the arctic and new coastlines due to glacier ice loss</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></div><p>The authors note that the rate of new coastline formation varies highly between regions. Just 101 glaciers were responsible for more than half of the total additional coastline length, they say.</p><p>Two-thirds of the new coastline identified in this study were in Greenland, the authors say. The melt of the <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26118-retreat-of-greenlands-zachariae-isstrom-glacier/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Zachariae Isstrom</a> glacier in north-east Greenland has resulted in the formation of 81km of new coastline – more than twice as much as any other glacier in the study – according to the paper.</p><p>Retreating glaciers also exposed 35 new islands with areas larger than 0.5 square kilometres (km2), according to the study. </p></section><section id="Changing-coastlines-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Changing-coastlines-3">§</a> Changing coastlines</h2><p>Rising ocean and air temperatures are the main reason that marine-terminating glaciers are rapidly losing mass, the study says. However, many other factors may affect how quickly new coastline forms due to glacier melt. </p><p>According to the authors, 85% of the glaciers in the study retreated between 2000 and 2020. </p><p>However, not all of these led to the development of new stretches of coastline. </p><p>For example, glaciers that stretch out far into the sea could experience “extensive retreat” without any new coastline forming, according to the paper.</p><p>Conversely, glaciers in “deep and narrow fjords” can expose long new areas of coast by losing only a small volume of ice.</p><p>The authors note that the most “dramatic” glacier retreats are due to ice shelves or floating tongues breaking off the main glacier and collapsing into the water.</p><p>Meanwhile, glacier advances – when glaciers gain mass more quickly then they lose it, or temporarily “surge” forwards – can cause a loss of coastline. (<a href="https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glacier-processes/glacier-flow-2/surging-glaciers/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Surges</a> are short-lived periods when the glacier moves faster than its normal rate, often due to meltwater which builds at the base of the glacier and acts as a lubricant.)</p><p>The paper finds that more than 50 metres of coastline was lost due to glacier advances. Two-thirds of this gain was in Svalbard due to a “surge” of the <a href="https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/8/623/2014/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nathorstbreen</a> glacier system, according to the paper.</p><p>Lead author Kavan tells Carbon Brief that other studies have assessed coastline gain from “individual glaciers” or “small regions”, but says this is the first paper to quantify coastline gain across the entire northern hemisphere for a uniform time period.</p><p><a href="https://pure.ulster.ac.uk/en/persons/robert-mcnabb" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Robert McNabb</a>, a lecturer at <a href="https://pure.ulster.ac.uk/en/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ulster University</a> who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief the study “highlights the importance and immense value of having long-term, freely available satellite archives for research”. </p></section><section id="Tsunami-risk-4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Tsunami-risk-4">§</a> Tsunami risk</h2><p>Glacier melt is often discussed in the context of <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/glacier-melt-threatens-water-supplies-for-two-billion-people-un-warns/" rel="noreferrer noopener">water security</a>, as the world’s<a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/glaciers/glacier-quick-facts" rel="noreferrer noopener"> 200,000 glaciers</a> store around 70% of the <a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glaciers/quickfacts.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">Earth’s fresh water</a>. However, Kavan tells Carbon Brief that the impact of retreating glaciers on the bedrock is often “neglected”.</p><p>Using a map of rock types across the Arctic, the authors analyse the changing conditions of the new coastlines. They find that most of the new coastline is formed of metamorphic bedrock – a type of rock formed from intense heat and pressure. Meanwhile, softer sedimentary rocks, which are more susceptible to erosion, dominate the newly formed coastlines in eastern Svalbard.</p><p>In his news and views piece, Cook – the University of Dundee environmental sciences lecturer – explains that the newly revealed coastlines are known as “paraglacial”. He writes:</p><blockquote><p>“Paraglacial coasts differ from other established areas of Arctic coastline because <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/guest-post-the-irreversible-emissions-of-a-permafrost-tipping-point/" rel="noreferrer noopener">permafrost</a> will not yet have had time to develop in these freshly revealed areas, meaning that they are more easily eroded by wave action, mass wasting and other processes because of a lack of icy cement. They are, therefore, expected to be highly dynamic.”</p></blockquote><p>Cook says it is “currently unclear” what the implications of the new paraglacial coastlines will be for the people and ecosystems of the Arctic. He suggests that the new coastlines “may become home to important ecosystems that play a hitherto unquantified role in the global carbon cycle”. </p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/DSC06092.jpeg" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Vegetation by the Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier in Greenland. Image credit: Veronika Kavanova </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>Freshly revealed paraglacial coastlines can be more prone to landslides, which may, in turn, cause “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00232-1" rel="noreferrer noopener">dangerous tsunamis</a>”, the paper notes. As an example, it points to a <a href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2521/2020/" rel="noreferrer noopener">tsunami</a> on 17 June 2017 in Greenland, which caused “substantial infrastructure damage and loss of life”. </p><p><a href="https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/organisation/staff/single-view/anna-maria-irrgang.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Anna Irrgang</a> is a coastal geomorphologist at the <a href="https://www.awi.de/en/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alfred Wegner Institute</a> and was not involved in the study. She tells Carbon Brief that the study “may help in detecting potential risk-zones” for such tsunamis. </p><p>She adds that the dataset provided in this study can be used as a “first estimation of the hazard potential”, but adds that “a more in-depth risk analysis needs to be undertaken at the local scale, where communities might be exposed to these arising dangers”. </p><p>Meanwhile, Kavan tells Carbon Brief that marine-terminating glaciers are considered “biodiversity hotspots”. Meltwater from the glacier causes <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JG006598" rel="noreferrer noopener">upwellings</a> at the terminus of the glacier, creating “nutrient-rich water” that is vital for many polar species, he says.</p><p>As a result, ongoing glacier retreat may result in many of these habitats being lost, putting species like bearded seals and Arctic-dwelling birds at risk, he adds.</p></section> ]]>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[Guest post: Saudi Arabia’s surprisingly large imports of solar panels from China]]></title>
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<updated>2025-03-31T10:30:20Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>Saudi Arabia and Pakistan were among the top importers of Chinese solar panels in 2024, with more than half heading to countries in the global south.</p><p>The findings come from Ember’s China’s solar PV export explorer, which tracks shipments to more than 200 countries and was recently updated with figures for the full year of 2024.</p><p>In total, China’s solar panel exports rose by 10% in 2024, with imports by global-south countries rising by 32% and those to the global north falling by 6%.</p><p>This means Chinese exports grew less quickly than the 30% rise in solar installations outside China last year, indicating that other countries have been boosting their own solar manufacturing capacity and that already-imported stocks were being run down.</p><p>Apart from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, which both witnessed different solar booms last year, there was also a sharp uptick in sales to many small African and Latin American countries in late 2024, suggesting that China may be finding new markets for its solar exports.</p><p>China itself – the biggest of all the global-south solar markets – installed more solar panels than it exported for the second year in a row.</p><p>This article analyses the latest trends from China’s solar export data, highlighting the markets currently seeing record growth and the trends that underlie this. </p><section id="Global-south-sales-surge-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Global-south-sales-surge-1">§</a> Global-south sales surge</h2><p>China’s exports of solar panels to the global south have doubled in the past two years, overtaking global-north sales for the first time since 2018, according to data collated in the Ember export explorer. </p><p>Global-south imports more than doubled from 60 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to 126GW in 2024. That surpassed global-north imports, which were only 12% more in 2024 than in 2022, as shown on the chart below.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Chinas-solar-panel-exports-to-global-south-have-overtaken-global-north-after-more-than-doubling-in-two-years-2.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Annual solar panel exports from China, GW, to the global south (red) and the global north (blue). Categorisation as “global south” or “global north” from UNCTAD. Source: Ember. - Bar chart: China's solar panel exports to global south have overtaken global north after more than doubling in two years</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></section><section id="Biggest-solar-importers-2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Biggest-solar-importers-2">§</a> Biggest solar importers</h2><p>The Netherlands was the biggest importer in 2024 and has been every year since 2019, as a result of Rotterdam serving as an import hub for much of continental Europe. The following four places were all global-south countries, the data shows.</p><p>Brazil was in second place again, importing more than 20GW for the second year in a row. However, the <a href="https://canalsolar.com.br/cotas-imposto-importacao-paineis-solares/">imposition of import taxes</a> by the government, the <a href="https://www.absolar.org.br/noticia/https-canalsolar-com-br-energia-solar-capacidade-instalada-brasil-4/">refusal</a> of electricity distributors to connect new solar systems and solar “<a href="https://ratedpower.com/glossary/curtailment/">curtailment</a>” are all causing headwinds in 2025. </p><p>Pakistan and Saudi Arabia jumped to third and fourth, respectively. (The next section charts the rise of these two very different solar giants, from the 12th and 26th biggest importers, respectively, in 2022 into the top five.)</p><p>India was in fifth place in 2024. Its module imports remained similar to those in 2023, but its installations rose to a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/india-added-24-5-gw-solar-and-3-4-gw-wind-capacity-in-2024-sets-new-records/articleshow/117085849.cms?from=mdr">record</a> high, enabled by a <a href="https://www.fortuneindia.com/macro/indias-solar-boom-domestic-manufacturing-surges-as-exports-soar/120472#:~:text=of%20several%20gigawatts.-,The%20country's%20solar%20cell%20manufacturing%20capacity%20is%20expected%20to%20reach,2020%20and%20continues%20to%20grow.">step up</a> in new domestic solar panel manufacturing capacity. </p><p>In January 2025, that helped India hit 100GW of <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/02/07/india-hits-100-gw-solar-milestone/">solar installed</a>, according to government figures. India is partly relying on Chinese imports, whilst simultaneously scaling up its own manufacturing industry.</p><p>The other large global-south markets – identified in the export explorer data – are also spread across the world, as shown in the figure below.</p><p>They include the UAE and Oman in the Middle East, Thailand and the Philippines in south-east Asia and then South Africa, Chile, Uzbekistan and Mexico.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-top-25-markets-for-Chinas-solar-panel-exports-1-2.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - The top 25 markets for Chinese solar panel exports in GW, between 2021 and 2024. Source: Ember. - Charts: The top 25 markets for China's solar panel exports in 2024</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></section><section id="Pakistan-and-Saudi-Arabia-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Pakistan-and-Saudi-Arabia-3">§</a> Pakistan and Saudi Arabia</h2><p>Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have had almost identical imports of Chinese solar panels for the past two years. They stood at 8GW in 2023 and then more than doubled to 17GW in 2024, placing them as the third and fourth largest importers in the world, the export explorer shows. Their monthly imports from China are shown in the figure below.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/China-imports-2.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s monthly solar panel imports from China in GW, between 2017 and 2025. Source: Ember. - Chart: Chinese solar panel imports are surging in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>However, that is where the similarities end. Pakistan’s growth has come almost entirely from small-scale “<a href="https://drawdown.org/solutions/distributed-solar-photovoltaics">distributed</a>” installations, without co-located battery storage and paid for by consumers. Saudi Arabia’s growth has come almost entirely from desert solar farms, complete with some battery storage and paid for by international energy companies.</p><p>Pakistan’s solar boom was <a href="https://uploads.renewablesfirst.org/The_Great_Solar_Rush_in_Pakistan_38157451a3.pdf">ignited</a> by spiralling electricity costs and chronic power shortages, which have put energy <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-profile-pakistan/index.html">at the heart</a> of the country’s economic problems. </p><p>The country installed 10-15GW of solar in 2024 alone, according to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/pakistan-sees-solar-boom-as-chinese-imports-surge-bnef-says">Bloomberg</a> estimates. Pakistan’s peak electricity demand was just 30GW in 2023, which gives an idea of how big solar has become in the country. </p><p>Large utility-scale solar is minimal – only 0.63GW of such capacity is <a href="https://uploads.renewablesfirst.org/The_Great_Solar_Rush_in_Pakistan_38157451a3.pdf">operational</a>. Instead, almost all of the new solar capacity was installed on rooftops or next to factories or fields, for direct use by consumers.</p><p>However, hardly <a href="https://apexsolar.pk/powering-the-future-analyzing-pakistans-energy-storage-market-potential-by-2025">any</a> battery capacity was installed alongside the new solar panels, meaning people and companies still rely on the grid for electricity outside of sunny hours.</p><p>The surge in solar capacity has helped <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/data-explorer/">drive down</a> electricity generation from fossil fuels, despite fast-growing electricity demand. However, it also “<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy-power-grid-v2/a-70885544">threatens to disrupt</a>” the grid, where demand has created at the same time as becoming more variable.</p><p>Turning to Saudi Arabia, solar panels are used mostly in large desert renewable auction tenders. There have been five solar tender rounds in 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2024. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/10/23/saudi-arabias-3-7-gw-solar-tender-attracts-lowest-bid-of-0-0129-kwh/">latest tender</a> round contracted 3.7GW of large-scale desert solar parks, achieving the cheapest reported electricity prices in the world of $13 (£10) per megawatt hour. (Note that these reported prices are <a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/have-the-prices-from-competitive-auctions-become-the-new-normal-prices-for-renewables">somewhat artificial</a> and are likely to underestimate the full cost.) </p><p>None of the winning solar parks were contracted with batteries. However, parallel battery tender rounds are now <a href="https://spb.com.sa/the-list-of-qualified-bidders-for-the-first-group-ofbattery-energy-storage-system/">commencing</a>.</p><p>There are <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-solar-power-tracker/summary-tables/">estimated</a> to be only 3.3GW of solar projects currently operational in Saudi Arabia, but a further 5.4GW are under construction. The solar plant owners are international energy firms including KEPCO, EDF Renewables, Masdar and TotalEnergies, as well as Saudi companies. </p><p>The country plans to move from near-zero renewables in 2020 to 50% of its total electricity generation coming from renewables in 2030. In relative terms, this is one of the <a href="https://ember-energy.org/data/2030-global-renewable-target-tracker/">most ambitious</a> renewable targets anywhere in the world. </p></section><section id="New-markets-4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#New-markets-4">§</a> New markets</h2><p>There were 15 countries that saw a large uptick in imports of Chinese solar panels towards the end of 2024, according to the export explorer data and shown in the figure below.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/To-new-markets-2.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Monthly imported capacity across new markets in 2024, in megawatts (MW). Source: Ember. - Charts: Solar panel exports to new markets surged in late 2024 but could reflect year-end targets</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>There were large increases in Nigeria, Algeria and Iraq, where there is clear evidence that demand for panels is growing. </p><p>For example, Nigeria’s growth was driven by blackouts in 2024 and the <a href="https://www.pvknowhow.com/installed-solar-capacity-reach-385-7mwp-nigeria/">removal of fuel subsidies</a>, making diesel generators more expensive to run. </p><p>Iraq is currently constructing its <a href="https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/work-continues-on-iraqs-first-solar-energy-project/">first large solar plant</a>, while another 7.5GW of projects were <a href="https://www.agbi.com/renewable-energy/2025/01/acwa-power-awarded-1000mw-solar-project-in-iraq/">approved</a> by the government in 2024 to meet growing electricity demand.</p><p>Meanwhile, Algeria has a plan for 3GW of solar projects, which is now <a href="https://globalflowcontrol.com/newsroom/sonelgaz-algeria-plans-the-construction-of-20-photovoltaic-solar-power-plants/">underway</a>. </p><p>For a cluster of a further 12 countries, it is less clear if the recent uptick in solar panel imports is a structural change that will continue into 2025 and beyond.</p><p>There are large incentives for China’s solar manufacturing companies to meet year-end targets, so it is possible that containers of solar panels were sold at discounted rates to help meet these goals.</p><p>The cluster includes many small African countries – Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti and Guinea – and Latin American countries – Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana and Nicaragua.</p><p>The December 2024 imports are quite large in the context of the small electricity systems of many of these countries. As such, these solar panels would provide a relatively meaningful increase in renewable electricity generation if they go on to be installed.</p></section><section id="China-installs-more-than-exports-5"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#China-installs-more-than-exports-5">§</a> China installs more than exports</h2><p>China has not just been exporting growing numbers of solar panels. – In 2024, it installed more solar panels than it exported for the second year running, according to Ember analysis.</p><p>Indeed, China installed 333GW of solar capacity domestically in 2024, some 38% more than the 242GW of solar panels that it exported, as shown in the figure below.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/China-exports-2.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Annual solar installations within China (red) and overseas panel exports (blue), 2017-2024, GW. Source: Ember. - Bar chart: China now installs more solar panels than it exports</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>From 2019 to 2022, China had been exporting more solar panels overseas than it installed domestically. However, that changed when China’s solar panel installations surged from 103GW in 2022 to 260GW in 2023. </p><p>By the end of 2024, China had a total installed solar capacity of 1,064GW, making it the first country to achieve the 1 terawatt (TW) benchmark. </p></section><section id="Reducing-reliance-on-China-6"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Reducing-reliance-on-China-6">§</a> Reducing reliance on China</h2><p>China’s solar exports grew for the seventh consecutive year in 2024, rising to a record 242GW, Ember’s data shows. </p><p>Exports rose by 10% year-on-year, which was a significant slowdown from the rate of growth seen in recent years. However, solar installations outside of China grew by 30%.</p><p>This demonstrates a step-up in ambitions to reduce reliance on Chinese solar panel imports by a number of countries around the world. </p><p>For example, India’s solar panel manufacturing capacity has skyrocketed in recent years. In 2023, it added <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/india-added-21-gw-solar-modules-3-gw-cell-manufacturing-capacity-in-2023-124040200339_1.html">23GW</a> and a further 11GW was completed in the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1536821/india-solar-pv-manufacturing-capacity/">first half of 2024</a>. India’s reported module and cell production <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/powering-the-future-indias-journey-towards-self-reliance-in-solar-pv-manufacturing/118706824">capacities</a> stood at around 80GW and 7GW, respectively, as of March 2025. </p><p>However, the country still relies on imported Chinese solar cells. The value of shipments to India rose 30% from $970m in 2023 to $1.3bn in 2024, accounting for almost half (48%) of China’s cell exports. </p><p>This reliance is <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/almm-for-solar-cells-to-increase-tariffs-by-40-50-paisa-per-unit-diminish-pace-of-capacity-additions-says-industry/114831826">seen</a> as a temporary but essential part of the transition to full India manufacturing capability, as solar cell manufacturing capacity <a href="https://www.pv-tech.org/can-india-hit-80gw-solar-cell-capacity-2026-emerge-dominant-us-supplier/">steps up</a>, with the aim that projects contracted through the government solar auctions only use locally-sourced cells from <a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/india-moves-to-curb-imports-of-chinese-solar-cells">June 2026</a>. </p><p>The EU is on track to meet its 30GW of solar panel manufacturing <a href="https://solaralliance.eu/news/europe-in-strong-position-to-exceed-goal-of-30-gw-annual-pv-manufacturing-by-2025-according-to-the-alliance/">target</a> in 2025. However, the numbers are relatively small compared to other regions. Europe had 22GW of solar module <a href="https://rhg.com/research/transatlantic-clean-investment-monitor-a-perspective-on-solar-pv/">manufacturing</a> capacity in 2024, with 12GW in the construction pipeline.</p><p>The US does not import Chinese panels, but it does rely heavily on imports from other Asian countries. It <a href="https://bcse.org/market-trends/">imported</a> 51GW of solar panels in the first 10 months of 2024, more than 90% of which were from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, India or Cambodia. </p><p>US manufacturing capacity <a href="https://seia.org/news/united-states-surpasses-50-gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity/">rose</a> from 7GW in 2020 to 50GW in early 2025, with plans announced for a further 56GW, according to trade association the <a href="https://seia.org/">Solar Energy Industries Association</a>. </p></section> ]]>
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<entry>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[DeBriefed 28 March 2025: South Korea’s record-breaking wildfires; Arctic sea ice hits record-low peak; Butterfly biodiversity imperilled]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56944"/>
<id>http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56944</id>
<updated>2025-03-28T14:34:15Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p><em>Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. </em><br><em>An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.</em></p><section id="This-week-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#This-week-1">§</a> This week</h2><h3><strong>Raging wildfires</strong></h3><p><strong>SOUTH KOREAN BLAZE:</strong> Wildfires in south-eastern South Korea – the “worst wildfires in its history” – have killed at least 27 people and displaced more than 37,000 from their homes, the <a href="https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2025/03/371_395078.html">Korea Times</a> reported. The <a href="https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/03/26/DEXO7B64HFE3ZC5FHLKUZYVO2Q/">Chosun Daily</a> said that the 1,300-year-old Gounsa Temple “was reduced to ashes” and the fire continues to endanger many of the “most prized cultural assets”. A “spate” of recent wildfires in South Korea and Japan have been “linked to climate change”, the <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/03/26/japan/science-health/wildfire-climate-change/">Japan Times</a> said.</p><p><strong>FUEL TO THE FIRES:</strong> Parts of North and South Carolina have been under evacuation orders due to several large, uncontained wildfires, with “millions of downed trees” from September’s Hurricane Helene fuelling the blazes, the <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article302674479.html">Raleigh News & Observer</a> reported. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/26/wildfires-north-south-carolina-helene">Guardian</a> added: “Many people in the area are still getting over the hurricane.”</p><h3><strong>UK climate and energy roundup</strong></h3><p><strong>DEADLINE DROPPED:</strong> The UK’s High Court “agreed to push back the deadline” for the government to modify its “<a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/in-depth-qa-the-uks-green-day-avalanche-of-climate-and-energy-announcements/">delivery plan</a>” needed to meet its legally binding climate targets, <a href="http://businessgreen.com/news/4411350/court-government-autumn-produce-uk-climate-plan">BusinessGreen</a> reported. The plan was published in 2023, but had been “subject to a legal challenge from green groups, which alleged it was not sufficiently detailed”, the outlet added.</p><p><strong>‘GREEN SILENCE’:</strong> UK chancellor Rachel Reeves made “no mention of green issues” in her spring statement, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/26/no-mention-of-green-issues-by-rachel-reeves-but-her-silence-comes-as-a-relief">Guardian</a> reported, adding that this “silence [came] as a relief” to “green experts”, given cuts announced elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Chinese owner of British Steel “rejected a £500m lifeline offer from the UK government, raising fears about thousands of jobs at the steelmaker”, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9da66a67-0c41-4332-95dc-8977a8511710">Financial Times</a> reported.</p></section><section id="Around-the-world-2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Around-the-world-2">§</a> Around the world</h2><ul><li><strong>IT’S ELECTRIC: </strong>Chinese automaker BYD “topped $100bn” in sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, surpassing electric-only manufacturer Tesla, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/dc59b0e4-c118-4095-9c79-afaeab069dee">Financial Times</a> said. Tesla sales have fallen 49% year-on-year in Europe in 2025, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/tesla-sales-fall-49-europe-electric-vehicle-market-120130703">ABC News</a> noted, even as EV sales overall grew 28%.</li><li><strong>CARBON MARKET:</strong> China released plans to include its steel, cement and aluminium industries in the country’s carbon-trading market, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/china-expand-carbon-trading-market-steel-cement-aluminium-2025-03-26/">Reuters</a> reported.</li><li><strong>COAL COMMITMENT: </strong>Germany’s incoming coalition “stand[s] by” plans to phase out coal power by 2038, according to a leaked draft reported by <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/eet/news/germany-government-coalition-plans/">Euractiv</a>, which noted the outgoing government had “favoured” 2030.</li><li><strong>POWER SURGE: </strong>Record temperatures in 2024 meant “global energy demand surged” last year, according to a report from the International Energy Agency covered by the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-temperatures-drive-surge-in-energy-demand-iea-says-97ea9311">Wall Street Journal</a>. A record 585 gigawatts of new renewables were added last year, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/03/26/renewables-record-growth-solar-wind-power">Axios</a> reported, citing International Renewable Energy Agency data.</li><li><strong>SHIP-SHAPE: </strong>In <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/03/24/its-time-for-shipping-to-launch-first-global-tax-on-a-polluting-sector/">Climate Home News</a>, Kenya’s special envoy for climate change, Ambassador Ali Mohamed, “unequivocally” endorsed a proposed carbon levy on emissions from ships.</li></ul></section><section id="267-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#267-3">§</a> <strong>267</strong></h2><p>The number of days in 2024 – nearly three-quarters of the year – in which the US was experiencing a “major disaster”, according to analysis of US Federal Emergency Management Agency data by the <a href="https://www.iied.org/major-disaster-us-declared-every-four-days-2024-iied-analysis-shows">International Institute for Environment and Development</a> and <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/24/climate/fema-disaster-emergency-declarations/index.html">CNN</a>.</p></section><section id="Latest-climate-research-4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Latest-climate-research-4">§</a> Latest climate research</h2><ul><li>Research in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494425000623">Journal of Environmental Psychology</a> found that political polarisation around climate change becomes more pronounced as countries become wealthier.</li><li>In China, compound hot-dry and hot-wet events became more frequent, long-lasting and intense from 1985 to 2019, with serious implications for crop losses, a new study in <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024EF005038">Earth’s Future</a> found.</li><li>A study in <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adbddd">Environmental Research Letters</a> detailed a machine learning-driven model capable of accurately forecasting marine heatwaves 10 days in advance. </li></ul><p>(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/uk-energy-secretary-calls-for-investigation-into-power-outage-near-heathrow/">Monday</a>, <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/climate-change-drives-surge-in-global-energy-demand/">Tuesday</a>, <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/strong-winds-fan-south-korea-wildfires-death-toll-climbs-to-18/">Wednesday</a>, <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/massive-increase-world-adds-record-levels-of-new-renewables-capacity-in-2024/">Thursday</a> and <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/daily-brief/arctic-ends-winter-with-lowest-sea-ice-cover-on-record-scientists/">Friday</a>.)</p></section><section id="Captured-5"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Captured-5">§</a> Captured</h2><div><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/arctic-sea-ice-peak-01-copy-1024x790.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - The Arctic's sea ice winter peak this year is lowest in the 47-year satellite record. Sea ice chart for DeBriefed.</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></div><p>The US <a href="https://nsidc.org/home">National Snow and Ice Data Center</a> announced that Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on 21 March. At 14.33m km2, the winter peak is the smallest in the 47-year satellite record. <a href="https://nsidc.org/about/about-nsidc/what-we-do/our-people/julienne_stroeve">Dr Julienne Stroeve</a>, a senior scientist at the NSIDC, told <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/arctic-sea-ice-winter-peak-in-2025-is-smallest-in-47-year-record/">Carbon Brief</a> that the record low “continue[s] the overall long-term decline in the ice cover”.</p></section><section id="Spotlight-6"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Spotlight-6">§</a> Spotlight</h2><h3><strong>Warming may turn butterfly hotspots from ‘safe havens to graves’</strong></h3><p><em>This week, Carbon Brief covers a new study that mapped and analysed the biodiversity of butterfly species around the world.</em></p><p>Up to a third of butterfly biodiversity “hotspots” will become too warm for the species they host by 2070, according to new research.</p><p>The study, which analysed distributional data on more than 12,000 butterfly species, was published this week in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-025-02664-0">Nature Ecology & Evolution</a>. </p><p>It found that two-thirds of butterfly species are mountain-dwellers, with mountains holding 3.5 times more butterfly biodiversity hotspots than lowland ecosystems.</p><p>The lead author of the paper told Carbon Brief he hopes that the approach laid out in the study will “broadly boost the representation of insects in global ecology and conservation”.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2XAB7G0.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - The heliconius erato butterfly on a leaf in Ecuador. Credit: Citizen Kepler / Alamy Stock Photo. Image ID: 2XAB7G0. </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><h3>Mapping hotspots</h3><p>Butterflies are “uniquely well-documented among insects”, Dr Stefan Pinkert, a researcher at Germany’s University of Marburg, told Carbon Brief. </p><p>But, even so, “much of this information remain[s] fragmented and inaccessible”, said Pinkert, who led the new study.</p><p>Pinkert and his colleagues used a country-level database of butterfly occurrences, along with regional range maps and previously published species-distribution models, to model the distribution of 12,119 butterfly species. They then calculated and mapped the “richness” and “range rarity” of butterfly species around the world.</p><p>Species richness was calculated as the number of unique species in the database for a given area. “Range rarity” is inversely proportional to the range size of the species in an area.</p><p>For both richness and range rarity, the researchers defined a “hotspot” as the 5% of areas around the world with the highest value of each quantity. They found that only 10% of species richness hotspots and 10% of range rarity hotspots overlap. The study said that this underlines the “limited value” of species-richness hotspots for identifying conservation priorities.</p><p>Pinkert told Carbon Brief that he was concerned to find that only 40-45% of butterfly biodiversity hotspots overlap with the biodiversity hotspots of land animals. Land-animal biodiversity has historically “served as main surrogates for defining” priorities for global conservation, he added.</p><h3>Warming warning</h3><p>The researchers also found that around two-thirds of all butterfly species they studied live in mountain regions, with species richness peaking at around 2,500 metres elevation and range rarity peaking at 3,500 metres. They noted that, while mountains are known for their species richness, the concentration of butterfly biodiversity is “substantially” higher than it is for other types of organisms, such as plants, birds and reptiles.</p><p>They then used climate models to project warming over the next 45 years – as well as how those temperature changes will affect butterfly habitat in the future. </p><p>They found that “temperature niche loss” – warming beyond the safe temperature range for species in a given area – would erode up to one-third of species-richness hotspots globally, under a very-high emissions scenario, with some areas losing nearly two-thirds of their hotspot area. Under a moderate emissions scenario, sub-Saharan Africa and south-east Asia would each lose a quarter of their temperature niches.</p><p>The loss of safe temperature niches was greater for hotspot areas than non-hotspot areas. The authors concluded that under accelerating warming, mountains might be converted “from safe havens to graves”. </p><p>Pinkert told Carbon Brief:</p><blockquote><p>“Our results underscore the urgent need to prioritise insect conservation amid global change…Business-as-usual in prioritisation and implementation [of conservation actions] will threaten ecosystem integrity – the foundation of our well-being and that of future generations.”</p></blockquote></section><section id="Watch--read--listen-7"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Watch--read--listen-7">§</a> Watch, read, listen</h2><p><strong>TIMELY TREK: </strong><a href="https://latinamericareports.com/trekking-to-colombias-melting-glaciers-on-the-climate-change-trail/11050/">Latin America Reports</a> chronicled a journey to visit Colombia’s melting Andean glaciers on the country’s “climate change trail”. </p><p><strong>ENERGY OUTLOOK: </strong>Kaare Sandholt of top Chinese thinktank the Energy Research Institute talked about the country’s energy transformation outlook – recently covered by <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/guest-post-china-will-need-10000gw-of-wind-and-solar-by-2060/">Carbon Brief</a> – on the <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Lxd1lyrHtimkJnEPtzaR9">Environment China</a> podcast.</p><p><strong>TRUMP-PROOF TOOLS:</strong> The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2025/mar/26/extreme-weather-risk-tool-fema-trump">Guardian</a> recreated a climate-risk tool that had been purged from the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s website under Trump’s anti-climate directives.</p></section><section id="Coming-up-8"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Coming-up-8">§</a> Coming up</h2><ul><li><strong>2-3 April:</strong> <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/events/41st-un-water-meeting/">41st UN-Water meeting</a>, Rome</li><li><strong>7-11 April:</strong> <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/Pages/Default.aspx">Meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization</a>, London</li></ul></section><section id="Pick-of-the-jobs-9"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Pick-of-the-jobs-9">§</a> Pick of the jobs</h2><ul><li><strong>Earthjustice</strong>, <a href="https://earthjustice.org/job/legislative-director-climate-and-energy">legislative director, climate and energy</a> | Salary: $164,000-$182,200. Location: Washington DC</li><li><strong>International Maritime Organization</strong>, <a href="https://imo-recruit.azurewebsites.net/vacancies/934">media and communications associate</a> | Salary: £45,347. Location: London</li><li><strong>UN Environment Programme</strong>, <a href="https://unjobs.org/vacancies/1742980140767">finance and budget assistant</a> | Salary: Unknown. Location: Nairobi</li></ul><p><em>DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to </em><a href="mailto:debriefed@carbonbrief.org" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>debriefed@carbonbrief.org</em></a>.</p><p><em>This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for <a href="https://subscribepage.io/carbonbrief" rel="noreferrer noopener">free here.</a></em></p></section> ]]>
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<entry>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Arctic sea ice winter peak in 2025 is smallest in 47-year record]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56947"/>
<id>http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56947</id>
<updated>2025-03-28T14:30:27Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>Arctic sea ice has recorded its smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 47 years ago, new data reveals.</p><p><a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/arctic-sea-ice-sets-record-low-maximum-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">Provisional data</a> from the <a href="https://nsidc.org/home" rel="noreferrer noopener">US National Snow and Ice Data Center</a> (NSIDC) shows that Arctic sea ice reached a winter maximum extent of 14.33m square kilometres (km2) last week. </p><p>This is 1.31m km2 below the 1981-2010 average maximum and 800,000km2 smaller than the previous low recorded in 2017, according to the data.</p><p><a href="https://nsidc.org/about/about-nsidc/what-we-do/our-people/julienne_stroeve" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Julienne Stroeve</a>, a senior scientist at the <a href="https://nsidc.org/home" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>, tells Carbon Brief that such a small winter peak “doesn’t mean a record-low” summer minimum will necessarily follow in September.</p><p>But, she adds, it does “continue the overall long-term decline in the ice cover”. </p><p>Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice reached its summer minimum extent earlier this month, with 2025 tying with 2022 and 2024 for the second-smallest summer low on record, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/antarctic-sea-ice-minimum-hits-near-record-low-again" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says. </p><p>The combination of reduced sea ice cover in both the Arctic and Antarctic means that global sea ice extent dwindled to an “all-time minimum” in February this year, according to the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Copernicus Climate Change Service</a> (C3S).</p><section id="Record-low-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Record-low-1">§</a> Record low</h2><p>Arctic sea ice extent changes throughout the year. It grows during the winter towards its annual maximum extent – often referred to as its “winter peak” – in February or March. It then melts throughout the spring and summer towards its September minimum.</p><p>Using satellite data, scientists can track the growth and melt of sea ice, allowing them to determine the size of the ice sheet’s winter maximum extent. This is a key way to monitor the “health” of the Arctic sea ice.</p><p>On 22 March 2025, Arctic sea ice reached its smallest-ever winter peak, according to the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/arctic-sea-ice-sets-record-low-maximum-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>. At 14.33m km2, this was 1.31m km2 below the 1981-2010 average maximum and 800,000km2 below the previous low, which was recorded in 2017.</p><p>The chart below shows Arctic sea ice extent over the satellite era (1978 to the present day). Red indicates the 2025 extent, while shades of blue indicate different years over 1978-2024.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/arctic.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Daily Arctic sea ice extent (in millions of km2) over the satellite era (1978 to present), where lines indicate individual years. This year is shown in red, while darker blues indicate more recent years. The dashed line indicates the record low. Credit: Carbon Brief - Chart: Arctic sea ice extent 1978-2025</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p><a href="https://nsidc.org/home" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> senior research scientist <a href="https://nsidc.org/about/about-nsidc/what-we-do/our-people/walter_meier" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Walt Meier</a> told the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/arctic-antarctic-snow-colorado-b2722829.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">Press Association</a>:</p><blockquote><p>“This new record low is yet another indicator of how Arctic sea ice has fundamentally changed from earlier decades. But, even more importantly than the record low, is that this year adds yet another data point to the continuing long-term loss of Arctic sea ice in all seasons.”</p></blockquote></section><section id="Freeze-season-2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Freeze-season-2">§</a> Freeze season</h2><p>The growth season for Arctic sea ice kicked off after reaching its summer <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-in-2024-is-second-lowest-on-record/" rel="noreferrer noopener">minimum</a> extent of 4.28m km2 on 11 September last year. This was the Arctic’s seventh-lowest summer low on record. </p><p>As temperatures cooled, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/darkening-skies-north" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says that Arctic sea ice grew slowly at the start of October. Ice growth then sped up towards the middle of the month and then slowed again towards its end. The average sea ice extent for October was 5.94m km2 – the fourth lowest on record, according to the NSIDC.</p><p>Throughout November, air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were “mixed”, according to the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/sluggish-freeze-warming-north" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>. It says that temperatures were above average from coastal Canada to northern Scandinavia, as well as in the area north of Greenland, but below average over the Beaufort, Bering and Laptev Seas.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed-17-1.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Map showing main regions of the Arctic. Credit: Carbon Brief - Map showing main regions of the Arctic. </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>Arctic sea ice grew at a steady pace for most of November – mainly in the Kara, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, as well as Baffin Bay and the Canadian Arctic archipelago. However, in the Hudson Bay – where air temperatures were 1-5C above average – “no appreciable sea ice” formed, according to the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/sluggish-freeze-warming-north" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>.</p><p>The November extent averaged 9.11m km2, ranking the third lowest in the satellite record and 1.59mkm2 below the 1981-2010 average, the NSIDC says.</p><p>December saw above-average air temperatures over “essentially all of the Arctic Ocean”, with a particularly “prominent” area of warmth off the Canadian Arctic archipelago and Greenland, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says.</p><p>Due to delayed ice growth in the Hudson Bay and low extent in the northern Barents Sea, December Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest in the satellite record at 11.43m km2. </p><div><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-9.21.56 AM.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Zack Labe on Bluesky: The extent of Arctic sea ice across the Hudson Bay is currently the 2nd lowest on record.</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></div><p>Daily Arctic sea ice extent decreased sharply at the end of January, when the region lost about 0.3m km2 – an area roughly the size of Italy – in less than a week, according to <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/february-2025-record-low-global-sea-ice-cover" rel="noreferrer noopener">C3S</a>.</p><p>It adds that “such a rapid decrease is unusual at this time of year, when sea ice is typically expanding towards its annual maximum”. It points to the “pronounced warm event” over the Greenland Sea and Svalbard region as the reason for the drop.</p><p><a href="https://www.uaf.edu/experts/rick-thoman.php" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Rick Thoman</a> – a specialist in the Alaskan climate from the <a href="https://www.uaf.edu/uaf/" rel="noreferrer noopener">University of Alaska Fairbanks</a> – tells Carbon Brief that the sea ice decrease in late January and early February was partially driven by “separate cyclones producing simultaneous south winds across much of the Barents and Bering Seas”. As winds pushed the ice northwards, “ocean wave action” melted the thin ice at the edge of the ice sheet, he says.</p><p>February was marked by slow Arctic sea ice growth, resulting in a record-low February Arctic sea ice extent of 13.75m km2, according to the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/february-made-me-shiver-not-arctic" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>. The organisation adds that daily sea ice growth “stalled” twice in the month, which “helped to contribute to low ice conditions and led to overall ice retreat in the Barents Sea”.</p><p>This rapid melt was partially driven by above-average temperatures. Between northern Greenland and the north pole, temperatures reached up to 12C above average, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/february-made-me-shiver-not-arctic" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says.</p><div><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-9.24.10 AM.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Zack Labe on Bluesky: Most of the Arctic is experiencing warming temperatures in February.</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></div></section><section id="Antarctic-melt-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Antarctic-melt-3">§</a> Antarctic melt</h2><p>At the south pole, Antarctic sea ice has been declining during the southern hemisphere summer. It reached its annual minimum of 1.98m km2 on 1 March.</p><p>This summer low ties with 2022 and 2024 for the second-smallest Antarctic extent in the 47-year satellite record, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/antarctic-sea-ice-minimum-hits-near-record-low-again" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says. It adds that the past four years are the only years on record in which Antarctic sea ice has reached a minimum below 2m km2.</p><p>The graphic below shows Antarctic sea ice extent over the satellite era. Red indicates the 2025 extent and shades of blue indicate different years over 1978-2023. </p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/antarctic.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Daily global sea ice extent (in millions of km2) over the satellite era (1978 to present), where lines indicate individual years. This year is shown in red, while darker blues indicate more recent years. The dashed line indicates the record low. Credit: Carbon Brief - Chart: Antarctic sea ice extent 1978-2025</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>The melt season for Antarctic sea ice began with its winter <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-in-2024-is-second-lowest-on-record/" rel="noreferrer noopener">maximum</a> of 17.2m km2 on 19 September 2024. </p><p>This was 1.6m km2 smaller than the 1981-2010 average maximum and the second-lowest winter peak on record, according to the NSIDC.</p><p>As the southern hemisphere warmed, Antarctic sea ice began to melt. Throughout October, Antarctic sea ice extent continued to rank the second lowest on the satellite record following the record-breaking 2023 season, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/darkening-skies-north" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says. </p><p>It adds that “seasonal ice loss was relatively slow during the early part of the month, but the pace picked up substantially during the last week of October, approaching 2023 values”.</p><p>By 30 November, Antarctic sea ice was the third lowest on record, tracking higher than the 2023 and 2016 levels for the same date, the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/sluggish-freeze-warming-north" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a> says.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed-18.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Map showing the main regions of the Antarctic. Credit: Carbon Brief - Map showing the main regions of the Antarctic.</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>After a “prolonged period of record to near-record daily lows set in 2023 and 2024”, December 2024 saw Antarctic sea ice loss slow down, with the average rate of decline tracking “<a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic" rel="noreferrer noopener">well below average</a>”. </p><p>By the end of December 2025, Antarctic sea ice extent was roughly in line with the 1981-2010 average, according to the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>.</p><p>As a result, it says that “speculation that the Antarctic had entered a new regime of strongly reduced Antarctic sea ice related to oceanic influences, has, at least temporarily, come to an end”.</p><p>It adds that sea ice extent was “above average over the western Weddell and Amundsen Seas and slightly below average in the Ross Sea, with near-average extents in other areas”. </p><p>Throughout February, Antarctic sea ice continued to melt – especially in the eastern Ross Sea and Amunsden sea, where ice concentration is low, according to the <a href="https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/february-made-me-shiver-not-arctic" rel="noreferrer noopener">NSIDC</a>.</p></section><section id="Global--all-time-minimum--4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Global--all-time-minimum--4">§</a> Global ‘all-time minimum’</h2><p>With sea ice at or around record lows in both the Arctic and Antarctic, global sea ice extent dropped to an “<a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/february-2025-record-low-global-sea-ice-cover" rel="noreferrer noopener">all-time minimum</a>” in February this year, according to the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Copernicus Climate Change Service</a> (C3S).</p><p>Global sea ice hit a new daily low in early February and remained below the previous record from 2023 for the rest of the month, C3S says.</p><p>The graphic below shows global sea ice extent over 1978-2025, where red indicates the 2025 extent and shades of blue indicate different years.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/sea-ice-extent.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Daily Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions of km2) over the satellite era (1978 to present), where lines indicate individual years. This year is shown in red, while darker blues indicate more recent years. The dashed line indicates the record low. Credit: Carbon Brief - Chart: global sea ice extent 1978-2025</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>C3S deputy director Dr Samantha Burgess noted that the low sea ice came as “February 2025 continues the streak of record or near-record temperatures observed throughout the last two years”. She added: </p><blockquote><p>“One of the consequences of a warmer world is melting sea ice – and the record or near-record low sea ice cover at both poles has pushed global sea ice cover to an all-time minimum.”</p></blockquote><p>The story was picked up in newspapers around the world, including the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/06/global-sea-ice-hit-all-time-minimum-in-february-scientists-say" rel="noreferrer noopener">Guardian</a>, <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/extent-of-global-sea-ice-hits-all-time-low-amid-warming-101741285274750.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hindustan Times</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/03/05/arctic-sea-ice-antarctica-warming/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Washington Post</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-copernicus-data-reporting-that-global-sea-ice-cover-at-a-record-low-and-february-2025-was-third-warmest-on-record/" rel="noreferrer noopener">In response</a> to the news from C3DS, <a href="https://research.reading.ac.uk/meteorology/people/richard-allan/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Prof Richard Allan</a> – a professor of climate science at the <a href="https://www.reading.ac.uk/" rel="noreferrer noopener">University of Reading</a> – warned that “the long-term prognosis for Arctic sea ice is grim”. He added: </p><blockquote><p>“Averaging over all regions the global warming trend is clear, with February 2025 more than 1.5C above pre-industrial conditions, repeating a level of excess warmth experienced in all but one of the past 20 months despite a weak cooling influence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific.”</p></blockquote></section> ]]>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[Global soil moisture in ‘permanent’ decline due to climate change]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56926"/>
<id>http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56926</id>
<updated>2025-03-27T18:00:00Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>A new study warns that global declines in soil moisture in the 21st century could mark a “permanent” shift in the world’s water cycle.</p><p>Combining data from satellites, sea level measurements and observations of “polar motion”, the research shows how soil moisture levels have decreased since the year 2000.</p><p>The findings, published in <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq6529" rel="noreferrer noopener">Science</a>, suggest the decline is primarily driven by an increasingly thirsty atmosphere as global temperatures rise, as well as shifts in rainfall patterns.</p><p>Consequently, the researchers warn the observed changes are likely to be “permanent” if current warming trends continue.</p><p>An accompanying <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adw5851" rel="noreferrer noopener">perspective article</a> says the study provides “robust evidence” of an “irreversible shift” in terrestrial water sources under climate change.</p><p>The drying out of soil “increases the severity and frequency” of major droughts, with consequences for humans, ecosystems and agriculture, explains <a href="https://www.drbenjamincook.net/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dr Benjamin Cook</a>, an interdisciplinary Earth system scientist working at the <a href="https://www.giss.nasa.gov/" rel="noreferrer noopener">NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies</a> and <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Columbia University</a>, who was not involved in the research.</p><p>He tells Carbon Brief:</p><blockquote><p>“Droughts are one of the most impactful, expensive natural hazards out there, because they are typically persistent and long lasting. Everything needs water – ecosystems need water, agriculture needs water. People need water. If you don’t have enough water – you’re in trouble.”</p></blockquote><section id="Drying-soil-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Drying-soil-1">§</a> Drying soil</h2><p>Every year, around 6tn tonnes of water cycles through Earth’s land surface. When rain falls on land it gets held up in soil, wetlands, groundwater, lakes and reservoirs on its journey back to the oceans. </p><p>Soil moisture forms a critical part of the Earth’s system, helping to irrigate soil, cycle nutrients and regulate the climate. </p><p>The amount of water contained in the soil is sensitive to a range of factors, including changes in rainfall, evaporation, vegetation and climate – as well as human activity, such as intensive agriculture. </p><p>The research points to a “gradual decline” in soil moisture levels in the 21st century, kickstarted by a period of “sharp depletion” in the three years over 2000-02.</p><p>Specifically, the researchers find the depletion of soil moisture resulted in a total loss of 1,614bn tonnes (gigatonnes, or Gt) of water over 2000-02 and then 1,009Gt between 2002 and 2016.</p><p>(For context, ice loss in Greenland resulted in 900Gt of water loss over 2002-06.) </p><p>Soil moisture has not recovered as of 2021, according to the research, and is unlikely to pick up under present climate conditions. </p><p>Joint-lead author <a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/190536-dongryeol-ryu" rel="noreferrer noopener">Prof Dongryeol Ryu</a>, professor of hydrology and remote sensing at the <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/" rel="noreferrer noopener">University of Melbourne</a>, explains to Carbon Brief:</p><blockquote><p>“We observed a stepwise decline [in soil moisture] twice in the past two decades, interspersed within a continuously declining trend in soil moisture. We haven’t seen this trend earlier, so that is why this is very concerning.”</p></blockquote><p>Ryu explains the decision to analyse changes to soil moisture on a global scale meant the researchers could confirm trends difficult to see in smaller geographic datasets:</p><blockquote><p>“The unique thing we found through analysing these larger-scale measures is that – even if we have seen widely fluctuating ups and downs in precipitation and increasing temperature – the total water contained in the soil, as soil moisture and groundwater, has been declining gradually from around the beginning of this century.“</p></blockquote><p>The maps below illustrate soil moisture changes in 2003-07 and 2008-12 against a 1995-99 baseline, as estimated by the <a href="https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land?tab=overview" rel="noreferrer noopener">ERA5-Land</a> reanalysis dataset. The areas marked on the map in brown saw a drop in soil moisture and the areas marked in blue an increase in soil moisture.</p><p>The top map shows soil moisture depletion across large regions in eastern and central Asia, central Africa and North and South America over 2003-07. The lower map shows that “replenishment” in the years that followed occurred in relatively small parts of South America, India, Australia and North America.</p><div><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed-16-1.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Mean soil moisture variations in 2003-07 (map a) and 2008-12 (map b) relative to a 1995-99 baseline. The areas marked in brown saw a drop in soil moisture and the areas marked in blue an increase in soil moisture. Dark grey indicates areas where the change in soil moisture was statistically not significant. Figures estimated by ERA5-Land. Source: Science. - Mean soil moisture variations in 2003-07 (map a) and 2008-12 (map b) relative to a 1995-99 baseline.</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure></div></section><section id="Climate-change--2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Climate-change--2">§</a> Climate change </h2><p>Ryu says the researchers “suspect that increasing temperature played an important role” in the decline in terrestrial water storage and soil moisture in the 21st century. </p><p>The study points to two factors driving gradual depletion of soil moisture over the last quarter century: fluctuations to rainfall patterns and increasing “evaporative demand”.</p><p>Evaporative demand refers to the atmosphere’s “thirst” for water, or how much moisture it can take from the land, vegetation and surface water.</p><p>Studies have highlighted how global evaporative demand has been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00890-7" rel="noreferrer noopener">increasing</a> over the last two decades globally, impacting water availability, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00890-7" rel="noreferrer noopener">hurting crops</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169424019280" rel="noreferrer noopener">causing drought</a>.</p><p>The new study notes that “increasing evaporative demand driven by a warming climate” suggests a “more consistent and widespread trend toward drying as temperatures rise”. </p><p>Ryu says the “very unusual” drop in water moisture observed over 2000-02 could be attributed to low levels of rainfall globally, which coincided with the “period when evaporative demand started increasing”.</p><p>Another – less pronounced – period of rapid soil moisture decline seen over 2015-16 can be attributed to droughts triggered by the 2014-16 El Niño event, Ryu notes. </p><p>Ryu says the study findings indicate that soil moisture can no longer bounce back from a dry year, as it has in the past:</p><blockquote><p>“It used to be that when precipitation goes up again, we recover water in the soil. But because of this increasing evaporative demand, once we have strong El Niño years – which lead to much less rainfall for a year or two – it seems that we are not recovering the water fully because of increasing evaporative demand. Because of that – even if we have a wet year following dry years – the water in the soil doesn’t seem to recover.” </p></blockquote></section><section id="Cross-validation-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Cross-validation-3">§</a> Cross-validation</h2><p>Measuring changes in global soil moisture has historically presented a challenge to scientists, given the lack of comprehensive and direct observations of water in soil.</p><p>The researchers attempt to reduce this uncertainty by corroborating the ERA5-Land <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/focus/2020/fact-sheet-reanalysis">reanalysis dataset</a> from the <a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/">European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts</a> (ECMWF) with three geophysical measurement datasets.</p><p>ERA5’s land surface modelling system uses meteorological and other input data to estimate water within the upper few metres of the soil.</p><p>These figures were compared with data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (<a href="http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/" rel="noreferrer noopener">GRACE</a>) mission – a joint satellite mission between <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/" rel="noreferrer noopener">NASA</a> and the <a href="https://www.dlr.de/en" rel="noreferrer noopener">German Aerospace Center</a>.</p><p>Running since 2002, the <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/water-stored-on-land-stopped-recent-sea-level-rise-being-up-to-22-higher/" rel="noreferrer noopener">GRACE mission tracks changes</a> to the Earth’s gravity by collecting data on groundwater depletion, ice sheet loss and sea level rise. These observations have revealed a persistent loss of water from land to the ocean. </p><p>The scientists also cross-reference the ERA5 reanalysis data with a <a href="https://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/DataProducts/EarthOrientationData/eop.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">century-old dataset</a> that measures fluctuations in the rotation of the Earth as the distribution of mass on the planet changes.</p><p>(The redistribution of ice and water, such as melting ice sheets and depleting groundwater, causes the planet to wobble as it spins and its axis to shift slightly. This is known as “<a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-funded-studies-explain-how-climate-is-changing-earths-rotation/" rel="noreferrer noopener">polar motion</a>”.)</p><p>The third set of measurements the scientists use is global mean sea level height, which is collected by satellites. </p><p>To extract soil moisture changes from this set of data, the researchers subtracted other components of sea level rise from the overall total – including Greenland ice melt, Antarctica ice melt, the impact of increasing sea surface temperature (which expands water volume) and the contribution of groundwater. </p><p>This process of elimination left researchers with an estimate of the contribution of soil moisture to global sea level rise. </p><p>The study notes that both the sea surface height and polar motion observations “support the conclusion that the abrupt change in soil moisture is genuine”. </p><p>Ryu says using global average sea level rise and “Earth wobble” to track water redistribution on land is the “main innovation” applied in the paper. </p><p>He adds the value of “reverse engineering” the ERA5 dataset is to understand how to enhance land surface modelling in the future:</p><blockquote><p>“By explaining all the contributing factors to this measurement, you can understand the process. And if you understand the process, you can actually predict what’s going to happen in the future if any of these factors change in a certain manner.”</p></blockquote><p>NASA’s Dr Cook says the “corroborating evidence” supplied by the paper offers a “really strong case that there has been a large-scale decline in soil moisture in recent decades”. </p><p>However, he says the relatively short reference period of the study means that identifying the cause of the decline is less clear cut: </p><blockquote><p>“Whether [the decline] is permanent or not is much more uncertain…On these timescales, internal natural variability can be really, really strong. Attributing this decline to something specific – either climate change or internal variability – is much much more difficult.”</p></blockquote></section><section id="Sea-level-rise-4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Sea-level-rise-4">§</a> Sea level rise</h2><p>A notable finding in the study’s sea level rise analysis is that terrestrial water storage may have been the dominant driver of sea level rise in the early 21st century.</p><p>Specifically, the paper notes that the decline in terrestrial water storage over 2000-02 – when soil moisture plummeted – led to global average sea level rise of almost 2mm annually.</p><p>The researchers note this rate of sea level rise is “unprecedented” and “significantly higher” than the rate of sea level rise attributed to Greenland ice mass loss, which they note is approximately 0.8mm a year.</p><p><a href="https://cee.princeton.edu/people/reed-maxwell" rel="noreferrer noopener">Prof Reed Maxwell</a>, a professor at the <a href="https://environment.princeton.edu/" rel="noreferrer noopener">High Meadows Environmental Institute</a> at <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Princeton University</a>, who was also not involved in the study, says the researchers’ efforts to compare soil moisture with other global water stores was “novel” and “opens the door to future study of a more holistic global water balance”.</p></section><section id="-Creeping-disaster--5"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#-Creeping-disaster--5">§</a> ‘Creeping disaster’</h2><p>The paper notes that land surface and hydrological models require “substantial improvement” to accurately simulate changes in soil moisture in changing climate.</p><p>Current models do not factor the impacts of agricultural intensification, nor the ongoing “<a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/rising-co2-has-greened-worlds-plants-and-trees/" rel="noreferrer noopener">greening</a>” of semi-arid regions – both of which “may contribute” to a further decline in soil moisture, it states.</p><p>Writing in a perspectives article published in <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adw5851" rel="noreferrer noopener">Science</a>, <a href="https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=38094" rel="noreferrer noopener">Prof Luis Samaniego</a> from the department of computational hydrosystems at the <a href="https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=33573" rel="noreferrer noopener">Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research</a> says that it is “essential” that next-generation models incorporate human-caused influences such as farming, large dams and irrigation systems.</p><p>The study posits that the “innovative methods” for estimating changes in global soil moisture presented in the study provide opportunities to “improve the present state of modelling at global and continental scales”. </p><p>More broadly, advances in scientific understanding of changes to soil moisture can help improve the world’s preparedness for drought.</p><p>Drought is often described as a “<a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/DroughtFacts" rel="noreferrer noopener">creeping disaster</a>” – because by the time it is identified, it is usually already well under way.</p><p>Paper author Ryu explains:</p><blockquote><p>“Unlike a flood and heatwaves, drought comes very very slowly – and has prolonged and delayed consequences. We better be prepared earlier than later, because once drought comes you can expect a long period of consequences.”</p></blockquote><p><a href="https://www.shuoswang.com/">Dr Shou Wang</a>, associate professor at the Hydroclimate Extremes Lab and the <a href="https://www.polyu.edu.hk/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hong Kong Polytechnic University</a>, who was not involved in the study, says the research findings are “crucial” for advancing understanding of the “potential drivers and dynamics” of “unprecedented hydrological extremes in a warming climate”. He tells Carbon Brief:</p><blockquote><p>“This is breakthrough work that uncovers the drivers of hydrological regime changes, which are leading to unprecedented hydrological extremes such as compound and consecutive drought-flood events.”</p></blockquote></section> ]]>
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<entry>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Glossary: Decoding how China talks about energy and climate change]]></title>
<link href="http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56872"/>
<id>http://cb.2x2.graphics/post/56872</id>
<updated>2025-03-27T16:39:42Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>China, the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter as well as the fastest deployer and manufacturer of low-carbon technologies, has issued a series of climate policies to help reach net-zero.</p><p>As Carbon Brief has detailed in its China country profile, China’s complex political system – a labyrinth of committees, conferences and other bodies – often makes it hard to find out and interpret its policies that happened both at the central and local levels.</p><p>The complex nature of climate change and energy technologies have also led Chinese policymakers and regulators to create an abundance of terms, phrases and acronyms that need explanation.</p><p>Below, Carbon Brief provides the definitive guide to jargons – from the frequently-used to the obscure – appearing in China’s climate world.</p> ]]>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[Experts: What do Trump’s tariffs mean for global climate action?]]></title>
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<updated>2025-03-27T15:28:06Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p>The Trump administration in the US has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/">imposed</a> tariffs on all imports from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/adjusting-imports-of-steel-into-the-united-states/">steel</a>, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/adjusting-imports-of-aluminum-into-the-united-states/">aluminium</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly341xr45vo">cars</a> from around the world.</p><p>In response, the US has been hit with <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/canadas-response-us-tariffs.html">retaliatory tariffs</a> from major trading partners, including the EU. </p><p>US president Donald Trump has <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114192326899482441">said</a> he intends to launch a further round of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyd959pr4yo">reciprocal tariffs</a> on 2 April, targeting a <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/business/india-reciprocal-tarriff-donald-trump-us-9896733/">broader range</a> of countries.</p><p>This escalating “trade war” is <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2025/03/global-economic-outlook-uncertain-as-growth-slows-inflationary-pressures-persist-and-trade-policies-cloud-outlook.html">expected</a> to slow global growth and has also triggered warnings of a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1a149997-c81f-4119-9e6e-0f61323b6b90">US recession</a>.</p><p>Global <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-18/china-halts-us-lng-imports-as-trade-war-reroutes-deliveries?sref=Oz9Q3OZU">energy flows</a> and efforts to tackle climate change are already being affected by the escalating trade tensions. </p><p>The tariffs are expected to disrupt the global trade in clean technologies, from electric cars to the materials used to build wind turbines. </p><p>At the same time, as high-emitting industries face <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/business/energy-environment/trump-oil-steel-tariffs.html">higher costs</a>, some commentators have suggested that tariffs could <a href="https://heatmap.news/politics/green-new-donald">hamper</a> US plans for fossil-fuel expansion. </p><p>And as clean technology becomes more expensive to manufacture in the US, other nations – particularly China – are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/climate/trump-trade-climate-change.html">likely</a> to step up to fill in any gaps. </p><p>Carbon Brief has asked a range of researchers and policy experts what they think Trump’s tariffs could mean for global climate action and energy supplies.</p><p>These are their responses, first as sample quotes, then, below, in full:</p><div><div><ul><li><a href="#kyle" rel="nofollow">Dr Kyle Chan</a>: “With US automakers struggling to compete, Chinese electric vehicle companies will likely gain a stronger position.”</li><li><a href="#elisabetta" rel="nofollow">Elisabetta Cornago</a>: “China may redirect its exports towards the relatively open EU market, challenging homegrown clean-tech industries at a time when the EU is trying to support and revitalise them.”</li><li><a href="#AllanandTim" rel="nofollow">Dr Bentley Allan and Dr Tim Sahay</a>: “G7 and G20 countries are strengthening their domestic economies with deficit financing and directed investments into strategic sectors, such as green and digital sectors”</li><li><a href="#Alex" rel="nofollow">Alex Muresianu</a>: “A less productive US economy, which must pay higher prices for key inputs, is one that can spare fewer resources to address climate change.”</li><li><a href="#Antoine" rel="nofollow">Antoine Vagneur-Jones</a>: “The administration’s fondness for data centres requires significant grid investment and yet the US relies on its neighbours for its supply of large power transformers.”</li><li><a href="#Blanco" rel="nofollow">Jimena Blanco</a>: “The US is mainly or wholly import-reliant for around four-fifths of its identified 50 critical minerals, including from its partners Canada and Mexico.”</li><li><a href="#Simi" rel="nofollow">Dr Simi Thambi</a>: “An increase in trade protectionism is not good for climate action.”</li><li><a href="#Rob" rel="nofollow">Robert Rozansky</a>: “One upside to Trump’s trade war is that it might stymie his efforts to push US liquified natural gas (LNG) expansion into overdrive.”</li></ul></div><div><ul><li><a href="#Chris" rel="nofollow">Chris Severson-Baker</a>: “The Canadian oil and gas lobby…has been using this moment to make the case for more oil and gas production and infrastructure.”</li><li><a href="#Anne" rel="nofollow">Anne-Sophie Corbeau</a>: “Trump’s tariffs have already had an impact on LNG trade…China has not imported a single US LNG cargo since 6 February.”</li><li><a href="#Goswami" rel="nofollow">Avantika Goswami</a>: “Tariffs – if imposed widely – may hurt the exports of countries like India, which nurture aspirations to mimic China’s role as an exporter of green goods.”</li><li><a href="#TuLe" rel="nofollow">Tu Le</a>: “If manufacturers have to move multiple factories, that changes, reduces or eliminates what would have likely been more investment in research and development for clean energy vehicles.”</li><li><a href="#Ellie" rel="nofollow">Ellie Belton</a>: “A more unpredictable US could create opportunities for the UK and EU to attract low-carbon investment and gain a competitive edge in the energy transition.”</li><li><a href="#Eileen" rel="nofollow">Eileen Torres Morales</a>: “The effects of Trump’s tariffs on the global transition to green iron and steelmaking are still uncertain.”</li><li><a href="#Saussay" rel="nofollow">Dr Aurélien Saussay</a>: “When faced with increased economic pressures from tariffs, countries could be more tempted to relax environmental standards to maintain competitiveness.”</li></ul></div></div><div id="kyle"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/kyle_headshot.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/kyle_headshot.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Dr Kyle Chan</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.kyleichan.com/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dr Kyle Chan</a></b></font><br><i>Postdoctoral researcher and author of <a href="https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinas-overlapping-tech-industrial" rel="noopener noreferrer">High Capacity</a></i><br><a href="https://sociology.princeton.edu/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Princeton University</a><br><p>Trump’s tariffs will likely have wide-ranging effects on China’s clean-tech industry and global climate progress. Higher tariffs on China will directly impact US imports of Chinese clean tech goods, such as lithium batteries, which reached <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/chinas-lithium-ion-battery-exports-why-are-us-prices-so-low/">$1.9bn</a> in December 2024. </p><p>Chinese solar manufacturing firms will also be hit indirectly through tariffs on production sites in south-east Asia, which collectively supplies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-us-solar-tariffs-southeast-asia-raise-prices-cut-profit-margins-2024-12-02/">80% of US solar imports</a>. Meanwhile, China’s retaliation could disrupt US access to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-expands-critical-mineral-export-controls-after-us-imposes-tariffs-2025-02-04/">critical minerals</a> for its own clean-tech industry. This includes graphite for battery anodes and rare earth metals for wind turbines.</p><p>The impact on China’s electric vehicle industry in particular will be consequential, albeit less direct. Chinese electric vehicle imports to the US, which were already minimal, will not be significantly affected by Trump’s new tariffs. </p><p>However, the broader disruption to automotive supply chains across Mexico and Canada – along with rising steel and aluminium costs – will weaken the ability of US automakers to transition to electric vehicles. This will benefit Chinese electric vehicle makers, which continue to innovate and drive down costs. </p><p>With US automakers struggling to compete, Chinese electric vehicle companies will likely gain a stronger position, not just in China’s domestic market, but globally as well.</p><div id="elisabetta"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/elisabetta_cornago_22.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/elisabetta_cornago_22.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Elisabetta Cornago</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.cer.eu/personnel/elisabetta-cornago" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Elisabetta Cornago</a></b></font><br><i>Senior research fellow, EU energy and climate policy</i><br><a href="https://www.cer.eu/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Centre for European Reform</a><br><p>The Trump administration is walking back on US climate commitments, both domestically by threatening to cut back <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/media-reaction-us-inflation-reduction-act-and-the-global-clean-energy-arms-race/">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA) support for clean-tech industries and internationally, [by] withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. US tariffs can also affect climate action and the energy transition globally, hitting global value chains for clean technologies.</p><p>The Trump administration has levied tariffs on primary materials, such as steel and aluminium, on the EU as well as on China. This will increase manufacturing costs for US-based producers of goods that rely on imports of those materials, such as wind turbines and electric vehicles.</p><p>But, at the same time, because of interconnections in global value chains, the EU will also be impacted by US tariffs that are currently limited to China. </p><p>Tariffs on Chinese exports of solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries to the US, for example, will reinforce China’s overcapacity in manufacturing in all these sectors, relative to weak Chinese demand. As a consequence, China may redirect its exports towards the relatively open EU market, challenging homegrown clean tech industries at a time when the EU is trying to support and revitalise them.</p><div id="AllanandTim"></div><div id="dual-wrapper"><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Bentley-Allan.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Bentley-Allan.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Dr Bentley Allan</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Tim-Sahay.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Tim-Sahay.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Dr Tim Sahay</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.netzeropolicylab.com/team-1" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dr Bentley Allan and Dr Tim Sahay</a></b></font><br><i>Co-directors of the Net Zero Policy Lab</i><br><a href="https://www.jhu.edu/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Johns Hopkins University</a><br></div><p>Trump’s <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/64ca7e081e376c26a5319f0b/t/672c397142465d519ce5515a/1730951538390/NZIPL-PS1_Trump_Retreat.pdf">self-harming retreat</a> on climate and tariffs has caused uncertainty for clean energy, industry and trade. There is a macroeconomic slowdown that could negatively impact the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/projects/the-us-foreign-policy-for-clean-energy-taskforce?lang=en">rising green investments</a> of the last decade. </p><p>However, countries are strategic actors, not just passive victims of US trade policy. We are observing G7 and G20 countries take anticipatory steps.</p><p>First, they are strengthening their domestic economies with deficit financing and directed investments into strategic sectors, such as green and digital sectors. A few examples: </p><ul><li>The monumental <a href="https://www.socialeurope.eu/germany-ditches-debt-brake-a-fiscal-revolution-begins">shift</a> in German fiscal policy will now enable investments in climate.</li><li>The overhaul of EU’s fiscal rules and greater funding of the EU’s industrial deal with over<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_550"> €100bn</a> to support clean manufacturing.</li><li>Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has unfurled <a href="https://www.netzeropolicylab.com/brazil-new-world">Nova Industria Brasil</a> to build green industrialisation. </li><li>Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum has announced and funded <a href="https://www.planmexico.gob.mx/">Plan Mexico</a> for strategic investments.</li></ul><p>Many nations are also diversifying their markets and multilateralist diplomacy. Targets of Trump tariff threats are involved in a flurry of trade and investment deals:</p><ul><li>Within Asia, there are negotiations to green the world’s largest trade bloc – the <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-free-trade-arrangements-would-advance-just-transition-by-ma-jun-2025-01">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a>.</li><li>Trade deals between Mexico-EU, EU-Brazil and Canada-EU are being revamped to allow more green trade. </li><li>Countries such as Brazil and South Africa are leading diplomatic efforts through their presidencies of BRICS and G20 this year to articulate <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/international-financial-architecture-and-sustainable-prosperity">new trading and financial architecture</a> that gives them the policy space to pursue green structural transformation to meet domestic and global climate goals.</li></ul><div id="Alex"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AMuresianu.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AMuresianu.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Alex Muresianu</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-muresianu/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Alex Muresianu</a></b></font><br><i>Senior policy analyst</i><br><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tax Foundation</a><br><p>At the most basic level, gains from trade are valuable. Historically, trade barriers have slowed the spread and adoption of new technology. The fight against climate change is just one example of the many economic challenges these tariffs will make more difficult. </p><p>Tariffs on important inputs make building more expensive and distort the US economy toward less productive activity. A less productive US economy, which must pay higher prices for key inputs, is one that can spare fewer resources to address climate change.</p><p>Advocates of Trump’s approach to trade often invoke competition with China as a justification. However, most of Trump’s tariffs are targeted at allied or friendly nations, such as Canada, Mexico and members of the EU. US policymakers are worried about losing an innovation race with China in areas like electric vehicles or other green technologies, but putting up barriers to other markets will make us less – not more – competitive in the long term.</p><div id="Antoine"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Antonie.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Antonie.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Antoine Vagneur-Jones</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ATwqKzCgveg/antoine-vagneurjones" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Antoine Vagneur-Jones</a></b></font><br><i>Head of trade and supply chains</i><br><a href="https://about.bnef.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer">BloombergNEF</a><br><p>The tariffs jar with priorities that are – at least rhetorically – at the heart of the Trump presidency. </p><p>The administration’s fondness for data centres requires significant grid investment and yet the US relies on its neighbours for its supply of large power transformers. Expanding manufacturing is another apparent priority, but increasing the cost of inputs will crimp domestic industry. </p><p>And by hurting cross-border value chains and taxing imported crude, the tariffs could conceivably disadvantage traditional internal combustion engine vehicles more than their electrified equivalents.</p><div id="Blanco"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Jimena_Blanco.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Jimena_Blanco.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Jimena Blanco</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jimena-blanco-3b44612b/?originalSubdomain=es" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Jimena Blanco</a></b></font><br><i>Chief analyst</i><br><a href="https://www.maplecroft.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Verisk Maplecroft</a><br><p>Against a background of tariffs and disrupted trading relationships, we are seeing a more protectionist stance towards critical minerals emerging, further complicating clean-tech supply chains.</p><p>Our <a href="https://www.maplecroft.com/products-and-solutions/geopolitical-and-country-risk/insights/emerging-markets-exerting-more-control-over-strategic-minerals/">research</a> shows resource nationalism is accelerating. Among the emerging markets, 17 major critical mineral producers have seen a significant increase in risk in the past five years, including Chile and Peru – both key sources of lithium and copper.</p><p>Exact details of the new US tariff regime won’t be known until 2 April, but it is likely that the next batch of tariffs will be levied most heavily on countries with the largest trade imbalances. These countries represent the majority of Washington’s key global trade partners, meaning disruptions to supply chains – including in minerals essential for the energy transition – are increasingly likely.</p><p>The US is mainly or wholly import-reliant for around four-fifths of its identified 50 critical minerals, including from its <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement">US-Mexico-Canada Agreement</a> (USMCA) partners Canada and Mexico. If Canada, for example, responds to the imposition of tariffs by the US with new export taxes, bans or restrictions on mineral exports, increasing costs or supply shortages are a prospect that US businesses will have to adapt to.</p><p>There is potential for US tariffs to slow the rollout of green policies if nations view renewables mandates or more stringent carbon regulation as adding additional burdens to their economy at a time of increasing trade friction. However, this could be counterbalanced somewhat by investments in low-carbon solutions such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) or hydrogen.</p><div id="Simi"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Simi_Heasdshot.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Simi_Heasdshot.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Dr Simi Thambi</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.fairr.org/about/our-team/simi-thambi" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dr Simi Thambi</a></b></font><br><i>Climate economist</i><br><a href="https://www.fairr.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">FAIRR</a><br><p>An increase in trade protectionism is not good for climate action. Climate scientists have conceptualised this as a scenario of rising retaliatory tariffs – <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3</a> (SSP3) – where challenges to mitigation and adaptation are high, making it unlikely for the world to limit temperature rise to 1.5C by the end of the century. This scenario could lead to up to four times more emissions than a sustainability-focused pathway with low challenges to mitigation and adaptation.</p><p>Mitigation is very challenging in this scenario because reducing emissions is more expensive, as investments needed to scale clean technologies are not prioritised. As a result, these technologies fail to penetrate well into the markets that need them most cost-effectively. For example, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024">2024 electric vehicle outlook</a>, electric vehicle sales in emerging markets remain very low. Lowering global emissions without greening the transport sector in developing economies would be highly challenging. </p><p>Adaptation also faces considerable challenges in SSP3, because one can expect deforestation and cropland expansion to rise in this scenario, as countries focus on their national ambitions. Extensive deforestation would reduce ecosystems and biodiversity, reducing their adaptive capacity. </p><div id="Rob"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Rob-Rozansky.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Rob-Rozansky.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Robert Rozansky</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://x.com/rob_rozansky" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Robert Rozansky</a></b></font><br><i>Global LNG analyst and project manager, Europe gas tracker </i><br><a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Global Energy Monitor</a><br><p>The Trump administration has gone all in on promoting US LNG under its “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/america-first-trade-policy/">America first</a>”, “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-national-energy-dominance-council/">energy dominance</a>” agenda. As it seeks to boost new LNG production projects that are still on the drawing board, such as the Alaska LNG project touted in the <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/state-of-the-union-how-climate-and-energy-have-featured-since-1989/">State of the Union</a> address, the US could further exacerbate a global overbuild of LNG infrastructure that <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024">threatens</a> international climate targets. At the same time, the Trump administration’s trade war may make these same proposed LNG projects more difficult to build and finance.</p><p>Tariffs will raise the cost of raw materials, such as steel, the “<a href="https://naturalgasintel.com/news/facing-bigger-cost-risk-this-time-us-lng-sector-could-push-for-steel-tariff-exemptions/">backbone of LNG facilities</a>”. If tariffs lead to economy-wide inflation, labour could become more expensive, too. The LNG industry is no stranger to the toll of inflation. For example, the cost of the under-construction Golden Pass LNG Terminal rose by $2bn after its main contractor declared bankruptcy in May <a href="https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/billions-in-cost-overruns-at-golden-pass-lng/">citing</a> pandemic-related cost inflation and delays.</p><p>If it becomes more expensive to build LNG export terminals in the US, financiers committed to projects under construction may struggle to recover their investments and those evaluating proposed facilities may be hesitant to invest. </p><p>The longer proposed projects sit without financial backers, the less likely it is they will get off the ground at all. New US LNG terminals are already set to face steep competition from an <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GEM_LNG_Oversupply.pdf">incoming wave</a> of export projects abroad and increasingly cheap renewable power, as an alternative to gas.</p><p>Given that LNG may be roughly as bad for the climate as coal, <a href="https://www.research.howarthlab.org/publications/Howarth_LNG_assessment_preprint_archived_2023-1103.pdf">if not worse</a>, one upside to Trump’s trade war is that it might stymie his efforts to push US LNG expansion into overdrive.</p><div id="Chris"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Chris-Severson-headshot.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Chris-Severson-headshot.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Chris Severson-Baker</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.pembina.org/user/chris-severson-baker" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Chris Severson-Baker</a></b></font><br><i>Executive director</i><br><a href="https://www.pembina.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Pembina Institute</a><br><p>In Canada, this is unfolding into a national debate about how best to strengthen our economic resilience and ensure long-term prosperity in the face of a hostile US. </p><p>There is a risk that what president Trump is doing could cause knee-jerk reactions here in Canada. The Canadian oil and gas lobby, for example, has been using this moment to make the case for more oil and gas production and infrastructure, to get more of its products to markets outside the US. </p><p>While we agree that Canada needs to diversify its trading partners, doubling down on oil and gas exports would not provide the long-term economic resiliency and energy security our country is seeking right now. We should look instead at Europe, where governments are aggressively decarbonising their economies, not only for climate reasons. They also understand that clean energy and new technologies are associated with less price volatility and more secure supplies, as well as health and affordability benefits for citizens. </p><p>The EU’s forthcoming <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/qa-can-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanisms-help-tackle-climate-change/">carbon border adjustment mechanism</a> (CBAM) will give an advantage to low-carbon exports of steel, aluminium and cement. These are all industries that Canada is well-placed to lead on, given our abundance of emissions-free electricity to power them. However, this can only happen if we retain our nationwide industrial carbon pricing system. </p><p>That is also why the next big nation-building project we foresee in Canada is not oil and gas infrastructure, but widespread electrification, supported by a buildout and modernisation of our electricity grid. This would help Canadians become more resilient, both to the economic impacts of trade disputes and the physical and economic impacts of climate change.</p><div id="Anne"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/ASCorbeau2024.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/ASCorbeau2024.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Anne-Sophie Corbeau</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/anne-sophie-corbeau/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Anne-Sophie Corbeau</a></b></font><br><i>Global research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy</i><br><a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Columbia University</a><br><p>Trump’s tariffs have already had an impact on LNG trade. After the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on China in early February 2025, China retaliated by announcing, among other things, a 15% tariff on US LNG. China and the US are not too dependent on each other in LNG trade, with US LNG representing only 6% of China’s LNG supply in 2024. But China has not imported a single US LNG cargo since 6 February, as Chinese offtakers of US LNG are diverting their cargoes to other regions to avoid tariffs.</p><p>However, China and the US are respectively the largest LNG importer and exporter globally. Chinese buyers have contracted significant amounts of US LNG between 2021 and 2023. Should tariffs persist or even increase, US LNG will likely continue to be diverted to other countries, making the whole global LNG market less efficient. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers may become hesitant to contract more US LNG.</p><p>Another country that may be at risk if trade relations deteriorate is Mexico. Mexico’s energy system is very dependent on gas. It is also uniquely dependent on imports of US pipeline gas, which is cheaper than LNG imports. There are also a few Mexican LNG export projects at different stages of advancement that rely on US gas supplies and are therefore in competition with US-based LNG projects. Uncertainties over the bilateral relationship could become a source of risk for Mexico.</p><div id="Goswami"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Avantika-Goswami.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Avantika-Goswami.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Avantika Goswami</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.cseindia.org/work-overview-10357" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Avantika Goswami</a></b></font><br><i>Programme manager, climate change</i><br><a href="https://www.cseindia.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Centre for Science and Environment</a><br><p>Donald Trump’s use of tariffs as an economic weapon is an attempt to regain dominance in the US’ trade relationships, for varying reasons – one being the US’ <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/us-trade-import-export-deficit-charts-490a7bce">massive trade deficit</a>. </p><p>From a climate perspective, tariffs need to be situated within a larger picture. They are likely to raise costs for general goods in the US – and green goods are not excluded from this calculus. This comes at a time when the US is lagging behind east and south-east Asia in the manufacturing of green technologies and has been slow in its domestic energy transition. </p><p>Tariffs may further raise the cost of the transition in the US. In tandem with attempts to expand oil and gas production in the domestic energy mix as Trump promises – and also any successful reindustrialisation efforts – this could see a rise in US domestic emissions. Meanwhile, fossil fuel exports will raise emissions elsewhere.</p><p>Tariffs – if imposed widely – may hurt the exports of countries like India, which nurture aspirations to mimic China’s role as an exporter of green goods. There has been an <a href="https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/transatlantic-clean-investment-monitor-solar-pv-snapshot?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">increase</a> in the export of solar technology from India to the US, with India’s share of the country’s module imports rising from 2.5% in 2022 to 10.7% in 2024, amounting to <a href="https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/eidb/ecntcom.asp">approximately $2bn</a> in 2023-24. For a country <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/governance/tariff-man-returns-to-white-house-how-trumps-policies-could-reshape-global-trade-and-green-transitions">with aspirations</a> in green manufacturing, tariffs on green goods could undermine this positive momentum for India.</p><p>This shift toward protectionism in the US does <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fba3cce3-e2da-4732-9d54-97d5b5e6a2e5">not necessarily</a> spell the collapse of the global green goods market. Instead, it may serve to strengthen China’s role in the global green technology supply chain. </p><p>Lastly, the return to protectionism, particularly green protectionism, is an act of hypocrisy by nations like the US, which have spent years denouncing the same policies at the World Trade Organization when undertaken by developing countries.</p><div id="TuLe"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/211008-Tu-Le-profile-pic.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/211008-Tu-Le-profile-pic.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Tu Le</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/tu-t-le/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tu Le</a></b></font><br><i>Managing director</i><br><a href="https://www.sinoautoinsights.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sino Auto Insights</a><br><p>It is important to take the Trump administration’s individual actions in totality, while also keeping in the back of your mind that the US is the second largest passenger vehicle market in the world. That drives the need for legacy automakers to sell into this market.</p><p>The tariffs force companies to review their long-term manufacturing strategy. If they have to move multiple factories, that changes, reduces or eliminates what would have likely been more investment in research and development for clean energy vehicles, due to their limited capital.</p><p>The Trump administration is also poised to eliminate the more stringent <a href="https://www.epa.gov">Environmental Protection Agency</a> (EPA) <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-multi-pollutant-emissions-standards-model">vehicle emissions standards</a> that would have taken effect in 2027. If successful, that would substantially reduce the urgency for global original equipment manufacturers to launch products with more efficient <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/powertrain">powertrains</a>. And it pushes out the need for oil companies in Russia, the Middle East and the US to alter or reduce their investments in clean energy initiatives.</p><p>Legacy manufacturers play a role in this as well, since their leadership years ago seemed to be so bullish in their ability to easily move over to clean energy vehicles. Their initial sales forecasts for this timeframe were never realistic and it put a spotlight on this being a left versus right issue, when it should have been a discussion on energy independence all along. </p><p>The US and EU governments are likely to push out their net-zero targets [for vehicles]. They were arbitrary to begin with. Now, with the Trump administration in place and European automakers whining about their inability to meet the more stringent requirements, they seem more than likely to be delayed past 2035. </p><div id="Ellie"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ellie-Belton-headshot.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Ellie-Belton-headshot.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Ellie Belton</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.e3g.org/people/ellie-belton/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ellie Belton</a></b></font><br><i>Senior policy advisor – trade and climate</i><br><a href="https://www.e3g.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">E3G</a><br><p>It is hard to imagine a scenario in which higher tariffs will benefit the global energy transition. Even if clean technologies are not directly targeted, the complex nature of international supply chains means that there will inevitably be knock-on effects, such as through increased costs for component parts like steel and aluminium. </p><p>Retaliatory tariffs against the US will also create a domino effect, distorting trade flows worldwide and altering countries’ comparative advantage in the clean economy. The biggest risk to climate action is the uncertainty this creates, which will damage investor confidence and distract governments from driving green ambition. </p><p>But a more unpredictable US could create opportunities for the UK and EU to attract low-carbon investment and gain a competitive edge in the energy transition. Continued efforts to provide public support for decarbonisation and seek mutual gains with cooperative trade partners will enable Europe to capitalise on the growing demand for renewable technologies globally. </p><p>Trade policy may have become a geopolitical game, but the urgent need to deliver a safe climate remains as critical as ever. The world is currently stuck in crisis response mode, but it is vital that we do not lose sight of the long-term direction of travel.</p><div id="Eileen"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Eileen-Torres-Morales.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Eileen-Torres-Morales.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Eileen Torres Morales</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.sei.org/people/eileen-torres/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Eileen Torres Morales</a></b></font><br><i>Research associate</i><br><a href="https://www.sei.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Stockholm Environment Institute</a><br><p>The effects of Trump’s tariffs on the global transition to green iron and steelmaking are still uncertain. It will take some time to see the impact, if any, such as increased steel prices in the short term, changed trade dynamics or long-term impacts on global green steel production.</p><p>The announcement of steel tariffs has forced exporting countries to rapidly reconsider how to stay competitive in the US market. The tariffs might benefit steel producers in the US, but a likely outcome is that both public and private consumers within the US will face rising steel prices regardless of whether the steel is green or not.</p><p>Trump’s administration’s interest in research and development of US-based green iron and steel production also remains unclear. It is not yet known if incentives for steel decarbonisation considered in the IRA will remain. For example, will the negotiations to advance green iron and steel production under the US Department of Energy’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov/oced/industrial-demonstrations-program-0">industrial demonstrations programme</a> continue or not?</p><p>Although the imposition of tariffs by the US may temporarily shift attention away from international competition and policies focused on heavy industry transition, this should not distract from progress in establishing a market for low-carbon products. </p><p>Policy instruments, such as the EU’s <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/qa-will-reformed-eu-emissions-trading-system-raise-carbon-prices/">emissions trading system</a> (ETS) and CBAM, should continue to be prioritised. Such tools can support the construction of a strong internal market for green steel, thus steering attention away from tariffs, back to driving innovation in low-carbon technology and emissions reductions that contribute to global climate action.</p><div id="Saussay"></div><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Saussay-Portrait.png"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Saussay-Portrait.png" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Dr Aurelien Saussay</a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</a><font size="5"><b><a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/profile/aurelien-saussay/" id="bioName" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dr Aurélien Saussay</a></b></font><br><i>Assistant professor at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment</i><br><a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/" rel="noopener noreferrer">London School of Economics and Political Science</a><br><p>The looming threat of Trump’s tariffs is already reshaping energy policy decisions in concerning ways. </p><p>Perhaps most alarming, from a European standpoint, is European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s recent <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ready-to-negotiate-donald-trump-boost-gas-import/">suggestion</a> that Europe should increase its imports of US shale gas-derived LNG to appease the Trump administration and avoid tariffs. This move would seriously undermine the EU’s 2050 net-zero commitment.</p><p>This potential shift illustrates how trade tensions can indirectly sabotage climate progress. I’m particularly concerned by how these tariffs could undermine the viability of carbon-pricing schemes in major economies. When faced with increased economic pressures from tariffs, countries could be more tempted to relax environmental standards to maintain competitiveness.</p><p>The steel and aluminium sectors – already struggling to decarbonise – would be especially vulnerable. Many mills have begun investing in cleaner technologies, but tariffs could force them to prioritise cost-cutting over emissions reduction.</p><p>Furthermore, the uncertainty created by trade wars makes low-carbon investments riskier. Clean energy technologies, many of which are capital intensive, require stable policy environments to attract investments. The constant threat of retaliatory tariffs dampens investor confidence.</p><p>Perhaps most importantly, retaliatory tariffs on clean-energy technologies could significantly slow the global energy transition. This is particularly the case for tariffs targeting China, which is a leader in many of the key decarbonisation technologies. By increasing costs for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, these measures would hamper deployment rates precisely when acceleration is needed.</p> ]]>
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<title type="html"><![CDATA[Cropped 26 March 2025: US birds in peril; UK ecologists ‘job fears’; Finance ‘fuelling’ deforestation]]></title>
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<updated>2025-03-26T15:00:00Z</updated>
<content type="html"><![CDATA[ <p><em>We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.</em></p><p><em>This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for <a href="https://subscribepage.io/carbonbrief" rel="noreferrer noopener">free here.</a></em></p><section id="Key-developments-1"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Key-developments-1">§</a> Key developments</h2><h3><strong>Forest and biodiversity funds</strong></h3><p><strong>TRANSFORMING FOREST FINANCE: </strong>A <a href="https://forestdeclaration.org/resources/transforming-forest-finance/">Forest Declaration Assessment</a> report revealed that global forest finance is “not only falling short, but actively fuelling deforestation”, said <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/forests/billions-needed-to-save-forests-but-funding-fuelling-their-destruction-reveals-undp-report">Down to Earth</a>. According to the report, for every dollar allocated to forest protection, six dollars go to activities driving deforestation. In 2023 alone, private financial institutions invested $6.1tn in sectors linked to deforestation, while governments spent $500bn in subsidies harmful to nature. Relatedly, several organisations launched a <a href="https://www.forestdeclaration.org/vision">call to action</a> for forest protection. It listed the priority actions for governments in 2025, which include enhancing ambition in forest goals, promoting deforestation-free trade, scaling up forest finance and securing land rights of forest communities.</p><p><strong>NEW CONTRIBUTIONS:</strong> Brazil’s planned $125bn “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” is on track to be launched at COP30 this year, the <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/brazil-has-167-billion-plan-to-make-cop30-talks-rare-climate-success">Straits Times</a> reported. The outlet said that several countries, including Germany, France and the United Arab Emirates, have expressed interest in contributing to the fund. Brazilian outlet <a href="https://oeco.org.br/salada-verde/fundo-bilionario-para-florestas-tropicais-comeca-a-ganhar-corpo-avalia-o-governo/">((o))eco</a> said that the fund “would pay countries for each hectare of rainforest maintained or restored”. Meanwhile, Ireland announced its first donation, of $16m, to Brazil’s Amazon Fund, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/ireland-donates-16-million-brazils-amazon-fund-2025-03-12/">Reuters</a>. The fund, which is already supported by seven other countries, seeks to halt deforestation and boost sustainable development in the Amazon rainforest.</p><p><strong>SHORT SCOPE: </strong>The Kunming Biodiversity Fund is only supporting six projects of $1.2m, according to the <a href="https://mptf.undp.org/fund/kbf00">UN Development Programme</a>, cited by <a href="https://dialogue.earth/en/digest/kunming-biodiversity-fund-only-supporting-1-2m-of-projects/">Dialogue Earth</a>. The fund was launched by China at the first part of the COP15 biodiversity summit in 2021. The outlet noted that China’s $207m pledge is the only contribution to the fund so far. The fund approved its first nine projects at COP16 last year, with six of them currently underway. Elsewhere, carbon credit registry Verra suspended the activities of four auditors that “overlooked integrity problems” with methane-cutting rice offset projects in China, <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/03/25/carbon-credit-auditors-suspended-for-failures-in-sham-rice-farming-offsets/">Climate Home News</a> reported. </p><h3><strong>England’s new national forest </strong></h3><p><strong>INTO THE WOODS: </strong><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93nxj5n5g9o">BBC News</a> reported that 20m trees will be planted to create England’s first new national forest in three decades. The “Western Forest” will be composed of new and existing woodlands in the south-west of the country, the outlet said. It will be the first of three new national forests to help meet woodland goals, according to the UK government. The 20m trees will be planted over the “coming decades”, the <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/new-national-forest-the-western-bristol-gloucester-swindon-qvz8gh82t">Times</a> noted, and will be spread across farmlands and urban areas. Meanwhile, a new government-led group of major landowners in England met to discuss ways to cooperate on nature restoration goals, <a href="https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4411211/national-estate-nature-defra-calls-landowners-accelerate-nature-recovery">Business Green</a> said. </p><p><strong>BUDGET WOES: </strong>Farming representatives “reacted with fury” after the UK government closed England’s sustainable farming incentive subsidy scheme to new applicants until next year, the <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/farmers-attacked-from-every-angle-as-green-subsidy-scheme-closes-2pqdskj5c">Times</a> reported. The newspaper said: “Labour promised £5bn in nature-friendly farming subsidies over this year and the next financial year, but has burnt through the budget already.” The 37,000 existing agreements will still be honoured, the newspaper said. Gavin Lane from the Country Land and Business Association described it as a “disaster for nature recovery”. A “reformed” version of the scheme will be announced this summer, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said in a <a href="https://defrafarming.blog.gov.uk/2025/03/11/an-update-on-the-sustainable-farming-incentive/">statement</a>. </p><p><strong>PESTICIDE CUTS:</strong> Meanwhile, the UK government announced plans to cut pesticide use on farms by 10% by 2030 to help “protect bees and other pollinators”, according to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/21/use-of-pesticides-on-uk-farms-to-be-cut-by-10-by-2030-to-protect-bees">Guardian</a>. The plan, which the newspaper said had been delayed since 2018, included penalties for irresponsible pesticide use. A spokesperson for Pesticide Collaboration, a group of health and environmental organisations, academics, farmers and others, said they were “thrilled” with the plan. The group told the Guardian that they were pleased that it “takes into account both how much of a pesticide is used and how toxic it is”, but added that they had hoped for a higher target. </p><p><strong>HABITAT CHANGES:</strong> Elsewhere, proposed changes to the UK’s planning system “sparked job security fears among thousands of ecologists”, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7a971bac-981d-447d-853e-d215f183594d">Financial Times</a> said. The newspaper explained: “The proposed measures will significantly reduce the number of protected species surveys required for development to be approved, as part of a government drive to speed up delivery of big infrastructure projects”. Ecologists who complete these surveys are concerned about the impacts for their work, according to the FT. The proposed reforms survived their “first Commons test” this week, the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/angela-rayner-bill-government-commons-kevin-hollinrake-b2720850.html">Independent</a> said, while the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/24/scapegoating-nature-planning-failures-charities-rspb-national-trust">Guardian</a> reported that UK nature charities called on ministers to “urgently strengthen environmental protections in new planning laws”.</p></section><section id="Spotlight-2"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Spotlight-2">§</a> Spotlight</h2><h3><strong>Third of US birds should be prioritised for conservation</strong></h3><p><em>This week, Carbon Brief looks at the 2025 US </em><a href="https://www.stateofthebirds.org/2025/download-pdf-report/"><em>State of the Birds</em></a><em> report</em><em>, which assesses the health of bird populations in the country.</em></p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Cerulean_Warbler_by_Justin_Lawson_3B_Cornell_Lab_of_Ornithology___Macaulay_Library.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Cerulean warbler, a migratory songbird, perched on a branch. Credit: Cerulean Warbler by Justin Lawson; Cornell Lab of Ornithology | Macaulay Library. </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>Nearly a third of all bird species in the US face a decline in their populations or other threats, such as habitat loss, a new report concluded.</p><p>The 2025 <a href="https://www.stateofthebirds.org/2025/download-pdf-report/">State of the Birds</a> report, published by a coalition of conservation organisations under the North American Bird Conservation Initiative, used bird population data over 1970-2022 to identify the avian species most at risk. </p><p>The “at-risk” species were those with low population numbers or declining populations, as well as those facing external threats.</p><p>These species – 229 in all – “should be prioritised in conservation planning to protect existing populations and build toward population recovery”, the report said.</p><h4>Conservation concerns</h4><p>Of the birds studied, 112 species are of “high concern” for conservation. </p><p>These species have faced “steep” population losses and have lost at least half of their populations in the last 50 years. They include the whooping crane, chimney swift and California condor. The report termed these species “tipping point species” and called for increased scientific research to determine the drivers of their declines, as well as “immediate help through voluntary and proactive conservation action”.</p><p>Another 117 bird species are of “moderate concern”, meaning they have small or declining populations, but have not faced such steep declines as the higher-risk species. This category also includes common birds that have “experienced large losses”, such as sparrows and blackbirds. </p><p>The remaining 489 bird species are of “low concern” for conservation, although the report noted that half of these have also experienced long-term declines in population, but “fall short of the thresholds for priority conservation planning”.</p><h4>Threatened species</h4><p>The report also looked at the changes in the population of species from different ecosystems.</p><p>The chart below shows the population change, since 1970, for eight types of birds classified in the report.</p><figure><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/state_of_the_birds-1024x745.jpg" rel="noopener noreferrer">Image - Population trend of eight groups of birds, since 1970. Source: State of the Birds report (2025). </a> (<a href="#footnote-2" class="missing-image">note</a>)</figure><p>Notably, grassland birds have seen the largest overall declines, losing around 43% of their total population since 1970 and with several species reaching the “tipping point” described in the report. US grasslands are “in collapse”, the report noted, due to expanding agriculture, drought and invasive alien species.</p><p>Aridland birds have also lost more than 40% of their population since 1970, the report said. About a quarter of the 31 aridland species analysed, including the scaled quail and rufous-crowned sparrow, are in the “high concern” category. Shorebirds have the largest number of species listed as high concern. The report noted that the largest declines of these species are registered in migratory staging sites along the Atlantic coastline. </p><p>By contrast, ducks and waterbirds are the best-placed groups, with 24% and 16% increases in their populations, respectively. The abundance of duck populations coincides with <a href="https://www.fws.gov/service/duck-stamps">policies</a> aimed at conserving their wetland habitats and other conservation programmes. </p><p>Nonetheless, individual species within these groups have also seen declines in population, the report said. Additionally, while their numbers have still improved since 1970, duck populations have dropped steeply over the past decade.</p><p>The document also listed various benefits provided by birds. Nearly 100 million people in the US are birdwatchers, a hobby that contributes to the mental well-being of people with depression and reduces symptoms of stress and anxiety. Moreover, birding yields $108bn annually in trips and equipment and generates 1.4m jobs.</p><p>The report concluded:</p><blockquote><p>“Restoring bird populations and addressing causes of their declines benefits millions of Americans.”</p></blockquote></section><section id="News-and-views-3"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#News-and-views-3">§</a> News and views</h2><p><strong>COP ‘CONTRADICTION’: </strong>Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o">BBC News</a> reported on the building of a new highway “to ease traffic to” COP30 host city Belém that would run through “thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest”. The Brazilian newspaper <a href="https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/meio-ambiente/noticia/2025/03/19/defendida-por-barbalho-e-criticada-por-ambientalistas-obra-de-avenida-no-para-gera-divergencias-as-vesperas-da-cop30.ghtml">O Globo</a> quoted scientists who said the 13km road is a “contradiction in the governor’s environmental discourse”. In response, the <a href="https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30-amazonia/note-on-the-report-about-construction-works-on-avenida-liberdade-in-belem">Brazilian government</a> clarified that the highway is not “part of the 33 infrastructure projects planned for COP30” and said that the initial framing “misinforms readers by misleadingly suggesting a connection between the construction project and the federal government’s actions” preparing for COP30.</p><p><strong>US AG CUTS: </strong>The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut two programmes that paid farmers $1bn to provide food to schools and food banks for low-income families, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/farmers-food-bank-budget-cuts.html">New York Times</a> reported. It added that the agriculture secretary has “broad discretion” to use the funding “for purposes aligned with the administration’s aims”. A smallholder farmer from Missouri told the newspaper that her production had doubled thanks to those programmes, but now she is concerned about how she will make payments on her debts. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/03/21/food-banks-funding-cuts-usda-trump/">Washington Post</a> reported that the USDA also cancelled an additional $500m in deliveries to food banks.</p><p><strong>NATURE DEALS:</strong> Colombia rejected a number of debt-for-nature swap offers due to “fears” about the impact they could have on the country’s credit rating, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-17/colombia-turns-down-debt-for-nature-deals-over-ratings-anxiety?sref=Oz9Q3OZU">Bloomberg</a> reported. Susana Muhamad, who resigned as Colombia’s environment minister in February, told the outlet that these swaps could “send the wrong message to the markets and make our financial situation worse”. This is also the government’s current stance, a spokesperson for the environment ministry told Bloomberg. (See <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/qa-can-debt-for-nature-swaps-help-tackle-biodiversity-loss-and-climate-change/">Carbon Brief’s Q&A</a> for more on these financial agreements, where a developing country’s debt is effectively exchanged for investment in conversation.)</p><p><strong>PAYOUT PUSHBACK:</strong> <a href="https://www.context.news/just-transition/indias-farm-insurance-proves-costly-for-most-vulnerable">Context News</a> reported that farmers in India’s most vulnerable districts can pay higher crop insurance premiums, but receive lower payouts, than farmers in less vulnerable areas. The outlet cited a thinktank report saying that this “undermines the purpose” of India’s government-run crop-insurance scheme, which is the world’s largest. The report, from the Centre for Science and Environment, found that farmers living in “climate-vulnerable districts” faced higher premiums, lower levels of insurance cover and smaller payouts than farmers in lower-risk areas, Context News said.</p><p><strong>‘FRAGILE’ MOUNTAINS:</strong> “Unprecedented changes” to mountains and glaciers threaten fresh water access for more than two billion people, according to a <a href="https://www.unwater.org/publications/un-world-water-development-report-2025">UN report</a> covered by <a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/glacier-melt-threatens-water-supplies-for-two-billion-people-un-warns/">Carbon Brief</a>. Mountains and glaciers are becoming “increasingly vulnerable” to climate change and unsustainable human activities, the report said. This is having a wide range of impacts on agriculture, local ecosystems and other aspects of life. One expert told Carbon Brief that glacier loss is already causing “loss of life, loss of livelihood and, most importantly of all, the loss of a place that many communities have called home for generations”. </p><p><strong>‘METHANE MESS’: </strong>Major supermarkets are not reporting on their methane emissions or setting targets to reduce emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, according to a new <a href="https://mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Clean-Up-on-Aisle-3_-The-methane-mess-supermarkets-are-hiding_March-2025-1.pdf">report</a>. The analysis, published by environmental campaign groups the Changing Markets Foundation and Mighty Earth, said that there is a “disconnect between retailers’ climate promises and action”. The report analysed climate reports and other data from 20 “top-grossing” food retailers in the US and Europe to assess their progress on mitigating methane emissions. It identified a “significant lack of action” to address methane emissions, with US retailers performing “especially badly”. </p></section><section id="Watch--read--listen-4"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#Watch--read--listen-4">§</a> Watch, read, listen</h2><p><strong>REN-EWE-ABLE?: </strong><a href="https://ambrook.com/research/sustainability/do-sheep-dream-of-solar">Ambrook Research</a> explored whether grazing sheep under solar panels “count[s] as clean energy”.</p><p><strong>OFF THE MENU: </strong>A <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/03/20/food-systems-are-the-missing-ingredient-from-the-cop30-menu/">Climate Home News</a> comment article by a former Colombian negotiator argued that food systems have been “sidelined” in the agenda for the COP30 climate summit. </p><p><strong>IN DANGER AGAIN: </strong><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/eet/news/europes-current-wolf-hunts-and-the-executive-that-wont-prevent-extinction/">Euractiv</a> covered the increase in wolf hunting in the EU, against a backdrop of “manipulated numbers” and lax regulations.<br><strong>MARINE LIFE:</strong> A “sustainable blue economy” is needed to protect the ocean from “surging” threats, including overfishing and climate change, researchers wrote in <a href="https://dialogue.earth/en/ocean/to-save-our-ocean-we-need-a-sustainable-blue-economy/">Dialogue Earth</a>.</p></section><section id="New-science-5"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#New-science-5">§</a> New science</h2><ul><li>A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57212-y">Nature Communications</a> study found that three-quarters of species’ ranges in border areas between countries are not under protection. The findings, based on analysis of the distributional ranges of almost 20,000 land-based species, show the “urgent” need for cross-border cooperation to meet global biodiversity goals, the researchers wrote. </li><li>Grass-fed beef in the US is generally more carbon-intensive than industrially produced beef, according to a study in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2404329122">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a>. The research found that the emissions per kilogram of protein in “even the most efficient” grass-fed beef are 10-25% higher than industrial beef – and as much as 40 times higher than plant protein and other animal alternatives. </li><li>Nearly 30% of forest loss in 15 tropical countries over 2001-20 occurred within one kilometre of a road, a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02158-8">Communications Earth and Environment</a> study found. The researchers used datasets of roads and forest loss to produce high-resolution maps of deforestation, highlighting the “urgent need” to protect and restore forests along tropical roads.</li></ul></section><section id="In-the-diary-6"><h2><a class="section-anchor-link" href="#In-the-diary-6">§</a> In the diary</h2><ul><li><strong>24-28 March:</strong> <a href="https://www.fao.org/cgrfa/cgrfa-20/en">20th session of the UN FAO commission on genetic resources for food and agriculture</a> | Rome </li><li><strong>30 March:</strong> <a href="https://www.unep.org/events/un-day/international-day-zero-waste-2025">International day of zero waste</a> </li><li><strong>2-3 April:</strong> <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/events/41st-un-water-meeting">41st UN-Water meeting</a> | Rome </li></ul><p><em>Cropped is researched and written by </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/giulianaviglione" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Dr Giuliana Viglione</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/arunachandrasekhar" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Aruna Chandrasekhar</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/daisydunne" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Daisy Dunne</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/orladwyer/" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Orla Dwyer</em></a><em> and </em><a href="https://cb.2x2.graphics/post/author/yanine-quiroz/" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Yanine Quiroz</em></a><em>. Please send tips and feedback t</em>o <a href="mailto:cropped@carbonbrief.org" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>cropped@carbonbrief.org</em></a></p></section> ]]>
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