Boris’s energy policy quick fix will take a decade to kick in
Noted empiricist, Boris Johnson, has been known to pen a comment or two on the subject of climate change after a glance out of the window. This weekend, after spying wind turbines through the windscreen of his Previa, the Mayor of London turned his fancy to energy policy.
According to his latest epistle in the Sun on Sunday, realism and decisive action are needed to meet the country’s growing energy demand, reduce dependence on imported gas and avoid power shortages. He reckons nuclear power and shale gas production will cut bills and keep the lights on, without further blighting the countryside with a “parade of waving, white-armed old lunatics, gesticulating feebly at each other across the fields and the glens” (wind turbines, to the rest of us).
Let us assess the good mayor’s vision of a brighter energy future.
“No one seriously believes that wind turbines are the answer to our power shortages”
Based on observing the turbines’ seemingly slow rotation speed as he chauffeured his son northwards, Johnson shares his revelation: windfarms alone can’t provide for the UK’s growing energy needs.
And he’s right. As a spokesperson for London Array, the world’s largest offshore windfarm, tells Carbon Brief:
“[W]ind power on its own is [not] the answer to the UK’s electricity needs – but it is one of a mix of generation methods needed to ensure a secure energy supply”.
The government has a tricky balancing act on its hands. It must ensure there’s always enough power available at the same time as cutting the country’s emissions – which it’s legally required to do under the Climate Change Act – and increasing the amount of energy renewables produce to meet European targets.
UK energy policy is designed to create a mix between conventional fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear. In 2012, renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind turbines provided about 11 per cent of UK electricity, rising to 12.5 per cent in the last quarter of that year – of which wind power made up nearly half.
So the amount of energy renewables are producing is on the up – and Johnson wants to halt this progress immediately.
“We need energy the whole time. It’s no use telling the British people they can only make toast or watch TV on a windy day.”
As the mayor correctly observes, wind energy is intermittent. Sometimes the wind blows, sometimes it doesn’t.
Because people like to eat toast when it’s calm, too, intermittent renewables need investment in things like greater interconnection, and backup from gas and nuclear plants. These help balance out demand when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
Under this model, renewables, shale gas and nuclear can, in theory, contribute power and reduce dependence on imported energy – all while emissions fall.
Managing electricity demand is also part of the picture. Boris’s suggestion that people may in future wait until it’s windy to use electrical appliances is not that far fetched. In fact, helping to balance out consumer demand to avoid daily peaks in usage and take advantage of extra electricity from renewables could help people reduce their bills as well as making the grid more efficient.
But the Mayor has other ideas – chief among them, getting more nuclear power online and the UK’s shale gas industry up and running. As he puts it:
“[W]e need to grow some collective cojones and launch the nuclear energy programme this country has too long delayed.”
The government would dearly love some new nuclear power. But is the current uncertainty due to a lack of, um, commitment? Or is it wrangling over value for money?
The government and energy company EDF are currently ‘in discussions’ over the guaranteed price for electricity from two proposed nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Taxpayers will ultimately pay to support the new nuclear builds, so the price that is set will determine how cheap – or otherwise – the electricity ends up being.
If the parties sort out their issues, construction may not start until 2015. And European nuclear plants typically take between six and eight years to build anyway, according to the Nuclear Energy Association.
So assuming EDF can deliver the plants on time (which it hasn’t managed recently in France), it will probably be a decade before the Hinkley Point reactors contribute electricity to the grid.
Boris doesn’t suggest putting all the UK’s energy generation eggs in one basket. He also says the UK should get on with developing a domestic shale gas industry. Johnson says:
“We must stop pussyfooting and get fracking… the great thing about shale gas is that it is clean and green to burn.”
He argues that shale gas, along with nuclear, is the path to a low carbon economy.
While gas generation emits about half the carbon dioxide that coal power does, it’s perhaps a bit of a stretch to call it ‘clean’ in emissions terms. Government advisor the Committee on Climate Change has explicitly warned against significant expansion of gas power to ensure the country sticks to its legally-binding emissions targets.
Even though the government appears broadly in favour of the new industry, there are still a number of obstacles to its development. Underdeveloped infrastructure, geological complexity, environmental concerns and, in contrast to wind power, a lack of public support, are all likely to mean the UK won’t have a significant shale gas industry for around another decade.
So it’s still unclear whether or not a UK shale gas industry – including fracking in London, as Boris has advocated – will provide a significant amount of energy to the UK in the near future. And while supply from shale gas could help top up slowing North Sea production, the UK is still likely to be reliant on gas imports for some time.
Boris’s decade long quick fix
Johnson’s rousing call for increased investment in shale gas and nuclear power will strike a chord with many – not least those who have taken a look at the government’s plans to increase energy supply and cut carbon emissions.
But by knocking wind power out of the picture, his proposal would create quite a hole in the UK’s generation capacity, as well as its ability to reduce its impact on the climate – though just for a decade or so. In the meantime, there are always gas imports.