COP29 DeBriefed 22 November 2024: Countries split on climate finance; Fossil-fuel transition ‘reaffirmed’; Latest texts analysed

§ This week

COP crunch

FINAL CALL: COP29 has entered its final scheduled day in Baku. Yesterday’s six-hour “Qurultay” meeting witnessed “unanimous” disappointment over the state of draft texts, with developing countries unhappy about the lack of numbers on climate finance and almost all calling for clearer language on climate action. (Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans live-posted highlights from the event.) Around 3pm local time today, the COP29 presidency released a package of new texts, just hours before talks were due to close. At least one further iteration is expected. 

FINANCE FIGHT: The new proposal for a global climate finance goal would involve developed countries “taking the lead” in channelling $250bn a year by 2035 to “help poorer nations” deal with climate change, Reuters reported. It added that the proposal has drawn criticism “from all sides”. Politico noted that it “falls far short of the trillion-plus figure that the poorer countries had sought”. For more on the draft finance deal, see Spotlight below.

STOCKTAKE STUTTERS: Last year’s “global stocktake” at COP28 included the landmark deal to “transition away from fossil fuels”. But the latest draft on the “mitigation work programme” excised all links back to this. Carrying things forward has been left to the “UAE dialogue”, which, in its latest draft, “reaffirms” last year’s language on fossil fuels, renewables and energy efficiency. It also has optional text adding further goals on energy storage and grids, as well as requesting an annual progress report for debate at subsequent COPs.

WILL IT END?: Seasoned COP watchers will know that the talks almost always run past their scheduled finish time. Carbon Brief’s analysis of previous finish times suggests that, if COP29 follows the upward trend, it will end at 3.25am on Sunday morning. Carbon Brief also polled a group of more than 200 delegates to ask when they think COP29 will end, with the mean time selected being 1:34am on Sunday. After talks finally draw to a close, Carbon Brief journalists will hold a free webinar to discuss the key outcomes. Sign up.

§ Around the COP

• ARGENTINA STAYS: Argentina confirmed it will not leave the Paris Agreement, squashing rumours ignited after right-wing populist leader Javier Milei decided to withdraw his country’s delegation from the talks last week, El Observador reported.
• INDONESIAN TRANSITION: Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto announced plans to retire all coal and other fossil-fuel power stations within 15 years, while also aiming to bring the nation’s net-zero target forward by a decade, said the Associated Press. It said experts “welcomed” the ambition, but are “sceptical” of its delivery.
• POWER PLAY: The UK launched a “global clean power alliance” at the G20, with Brazil, Australia, Canada and France among members, according to the Press Association. The leaders of the UK and Brazil wrote joint op-eds touting the pact in the Times and Folha de São Paulo.
• COP ‘STAND-OFF’: Australia and Turkey are currently in a “stand-off” over who will host COP31 in 2026, with neither party willing to give up their bid, Reuters said.
• ‘BIZARRE’ RESTRICTIONS: COP29 host Azerbaijan went to “bizarre” lengths to prepare Baku for the summit, Bloomberg reported. This included clearing public areas and roads by moving parliamentary elections, shutting schools and universities and ordering two-thirds of the city to work from home.
• LOBBYISTS: A Global Witness investigation found that at least 1,700 fossil-fuel executives registered to attend COP29, lower than the record in Dubai, but still larger than most party delegations. The Guardian reported that “hundreds” of industrial farming lobbyists have also been in attendance.

§ Zero

The number of new countries at COP29 joining a small alliance of nations that have pledged to phase out oil and gas.

§ Latest climate research

• Climate lawsuits and negative court decisions can reduce the value of publicly listed companies, a Nature Sustainability study suggested.
• Early 20th century global ocean surface temperatures were warmer than previously thought, a study in Nature has found, meaning the pace of heating from 1900 to the 1950s was slightly slower than assumed.
• A Nature Geoscience study found that the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a major system of ocean currents responsible for transporting heat around the world – could be linked to influxes of freshwater into the subarctic Atlantic.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

§ Captured

China’s historical emissions within its borders have now caused more global warming than the 27 member states of the EU combined, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. However, China is still far behind the world’s largest historical emitter, the US, the analysis showed. It added that China is unlikely to ever overtake the US, based on current policies, committed plans and technology trends in both countries. Carbon Brief’s analysis is featured in a data-driven article in the New York Times.

§ Spotlight

Decoding the COP29 finance proposal

Carbon Brief unravels the latest hotly contested climate-finance text from COP29 and explains the main sticking points.

Nations have a deadline at COP29 to agree on a new goal for channelling money into cutting emissions and protecting people from climate change.

This target will replace an existing obligation for “developed” countries – including EU states, the US and Japan – to provide $100bn of climate finance a year to “developing” countries. 

Money has always been one of the most controversial aspects of UN climate talks and COP29 has exposed deep rifts. 

A draft text outlining the new goal published earlier today shows that, on the day the talks are meant to finish, these tensions are far from being resolved. Developing countries and climate NGOs described the proposal as “totally unacceptable” and a “joke”.

Parties will now digest this text and at least one new version will be produced by the Azerbaijani presidency as the talks drag into overtime.

Billions

The proposed goal has two parts. At its core is $250bn delivered each year to developing countries by 2035. 

This is framed as the continuation of the $100bn annual goal, which is provided entirely by developed countries. Yet, in this text, developed countries only “take the lead”, leaving the goal open for others to contribute.

As with the $100bn, this goal would include public money, such as development aid, as well as private finance that is “mobilised” by public spending.

The target matches one floated to Politico by EU sources earlier in the week, which was greeted with derision by global-south leaders. Developing countries had demanded a similar core goal of $440-900bn, but made up entirely of public money and largely as grants.

Crucially, analysts have found that comparable amounts of climate finance could be provided in this timeframe, even if developed countries make no extra effort to contribute more in the coming years, beyond existing commitments.

Trillions

From the start of COP29, all developing countries have been united behind a call for $1.3tn in climate finance a year, provided by developed countries. 

There is broad agreement among experts that developing countries need to invest trillions of dollars each year to fulfil their climate goals, with large chunks coming from developed countries.

The new text includes a “call” to raise $1.3tn in climate finance by 2035. 

However, it does not line up with developing countries’ proposals and, instead, reflects developed countries’ long-standing vision of a broader goal based on global “investment”. It refers to the $1.3tn coming from “all public and private sources”. 

On the other hand, some of the more contentious ideas put forward by developed countries, such as the US, are no longer in the text. For example, it does not reference “domestic spending” in counting towards the goal.

Contributors

One of the most disputed topics in climate-finance talks has been expanding the list of contributors beyond developed countries. 

Many nations classed as “developing” in the UN climate system, such as China and Saudi Arabia, are relatively wealthy and major contributors to climate change. This, some argue, means they should be obliged to provide finance.

There is no longer a formal recognition of this in the new text. An attempt by some developed countries to add criteria for new contributors was deleted the previous day.

COP29 has seen some wrangling around this issue. Observers welcomed China referencing the billions of dollars in climate funds it already provides to the global south and the EU expressed its openness to recognising “voluntary” contributions from developing countries.

In the end, the draft text “invites” developing countries to contribute. It also references “voluntary” counting of contributions from multilateral development banks, to which emerging economies provide large sums of money.

The climate-finance text contains many more notable compromises, which are summarised in this thread. All eyes are now on what the final text, agreed by all parties at COP29, will say.

§ Watch, read, listen

‘TRUMP ATE MY HOMEWORK’: A comment piece by Avantika Goswami in Down to Earth picked apart the “narrative of a prejudged failed COP” in a crucial year for climate finance.

‘GRANTS, NOT LOANS’: The Green Pulse podcast by Singapore’s Straits Times explained what the COP29 finance goal means and why more “loans can’t help” vulnerable communities in developing countries.

ASIAN AGE: Historian and author Adam Tooze discussed climate, trade wars, geopolitics and the “polycrisis” in Asia in his State of Asia 2024 address.

Coming up

• 25-27 November: UN Forum on Business and Human Rights, Geneva, Switzerland
• 25 November-1 December: Fifth session of negotiations for an international plastics treaty (INC 5), Busan, South Korea
• 2-13 December: International Court of Justice hearings on the obligations of states in respect of climate change, The Hague, Netherlands
• 2-13 December: UN Desertification Conference COP16, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Pick of the jobs

• Small World, senior sustainability consultant | Salary: £49,811-£67,000. Location: Lancaster (hybrid) 
• The Ocean Census, head of science | Salary: £78,000. Location: Oxford, UK
• M+ Museum, head of conservation and research | Salary: Unknown. Location: Hong Kong 
• Associated Press, oceans and climate reporter | Salary: Unknown. Location: Los Angeles, US
• The Environmental Reporting Collective, managing editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Southeast Asia

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to [email protected].
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