China Briefing 3 October 2024: New coal guideline; Less oil consumption; ‘Green’ hydrogen

§ Key developments

China issued new guidance on coal 

COAL GUIDANCE: The Chinese government issued a “guideline” on “strengthening the clean and efficient use of coal”, aiming to establish a system for coal use that is compatible with “green and low-carbon development” by 2030, industry news outlet BJX News reported. The guideline covers coal development, production, storage and transportation, as well as efficient usage and reducing emissions, according to the outlet. At a press conference, one of the ministries behind the document, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that “clean and efficient utilisation of coal” means applying “advanced technologies and management methods throughout the entire coal industry chain”, according to another BJX News article. The NDRC added that the approach “plays a crucial role in ensuring coal’s foundational role in energy security and promoting the green and low-carbon transition of energy”, said the report.

EXPERT VOICE: The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Finland-based thinktank, commented in a LinkedIn post that the guideline tries to “uphold coal’s position, but coal growth targets cannot be proposed under [China’s] ‘dual-carbon goals’”. It suggested China should “move quickly to establish quantitative targets for both coal consumption and clean energy, which would help instil confidence in the clean-energy sector while ensuring a well-managed transition” away from coal. CREA’s China team lead Xinyi Shen pointed out in another LinkedIn post that, while the new policy calls for coal use limits in some regions with poor air quality, it does not “set a nationwide cap, leaving room for increased coal consumption in other regions”. She said: “Given that China’s industrial sector is already relatively advanced in energy efficiency, further improvements may be limited or less cost-effective…to make meaningful reductions in industrial pollution and carbon emissions, large-scale adoption of low-carbon technologies – such as electric furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy – should become a higher priority.”

Reports point to 2035 emissions cuts for China

EMISSIONS TARGET: A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that implementing the goals agreed at COP28 last year –and aligning the next round of national climate pledges with national net-zero targets – would mean emerging market countries, such as China, cutting their energy-related emissions to 35-60% below 2022 levels by 2035. A new paper from CREA said China could cut its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to at least 30% below 2023 levels by 2035 and its non-CO2 emissions by 35%, based on recent trends in clean-energy deployment.

PEAK OIL?: An analysis by financial media outlet Caixin explored the reasons “driving down China’s crude [oil] demand”. Citing S&P Global, it said “China’s oil demand may have already peaked or is likely to peak soon”. Caixin attributed the shift to “an economic slowdown, sluggish construction and manufacturing sectors”, as well as extreme weather events and the shift to “new energy vehicles” (NEVs, including battery electric and plug-in hybrids). The rise of NEVs is “dramatically reducing [China’s] reliance on fossil fuels”, Caixin added. 

SECURITY STRATEGY: Writing in Legal Planet, Alex Wang, a professor of law at UCLA School of Law, explored the implications of China’s energy security strategy. He noted that, as the largest oil importer in the world, as well as a major importer of coal and gas, China’s push for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables “directly supports” its energy “self-reliance” strategy, “though it creates other risks, such as those related to maintaining supply chains for critical mineral mining and processing in global south countries”. Wang added that “China is not reliant solely on clean energy, but is going ‘all in’ on all forms of energy, including coal, oil, gas, hydropower and nuclear”.

ACCELERATING TRANSITION: A “big read” in the Financial Times on China’s “accelerating green transition” noted that two-thirds of the world’s new wind and solar project are in the country, but to “wean industry off coal, Beijing needs to set up a real energy market”. It added that China is forecast to need $800bn of grid investment by 2030. Bloomberg reported that China’s “focus” is shifting from “generating clean energy to making sure it can be used”, pushing energy storage to the “centre stage” of its energy transition.

EU vote on China tariffs imminent

EU’S DECISION: After a long negotiation with China, the EU is set to vote on 4 October on “whether to impose tariffs as high as 45%” on imported EVs made in China, said Bloomberg. The EU’s climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, said ahead of the vote that the EU “face[s] a China problem” and that “it cannot be that our companies go bust because the marketplace is flooded with state-subsidised products”, according to another Bloomberg report. He also called on China to contribute more finance to help developing countries combat the impact of global warming, added the report. 

ONGOING DISPUTES: Last week, US president Joe Biden proposed software and hardware rules that would “effectively bar” Chinese vehicles from US roads, reported Reuters. Bloomberg said that Biden’s plan “may have ramifications beyond the auto industry and could result in retaliation against US businesses in China”. In China, the Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-discrimination investigation into “Canada’s tariff hikes” on Chinese EVs “as well as steel and aluminium products imported from China”, the Chinese state-owned newspaper Global Times reported. The newspaper quoted the ministry saying: “China’s attitude is clear-cut and it will take all necessary measures to defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies.”

§ Spotlight

Could ‘green hydrogen’ help China achieve its climate goal?

In 2022, China set a target of producing up to 200,000 tonnes (t) of “green hydrogen” per year by the end of 2025, to help achieve its “dual-carbon” goal.

A report by Rystad Energy, a Norway-based research company, says the country is projected to “exceed that volume” by the end of 2024. However, this output remains a tiny fraction of hydrogen production overall – and use is not yet widespread.

In this issue, Carbon Brief looks at China’s green hydrogen production and utilisation, as well as what its future may look like.

‘Green hydrogen’ in China

Hydrogen comes in different “colours”, such as grey, blue and green.

“Green hydrogen”, produced by splitting water using electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, is seen as the cleanest form.

However, green hydrogen only accounted for around 0.1% of global hydrogen output in 2023, according to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) this week. The rest is produced from “fossil fuels…​through steam methane reforming of natural gas or gasification of coal”, which generates large carbon emissions, according to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

China is the world leader in green hydrogen, installing 1 gigawatt (GW) of electrolyser capacity in 2023, according to research company Rystad Energy. The IEA said the country accounted for 40% of electrolyser capacity that was approved in the past year and “three-quarters of the new capacity additions that could become operational in 2024”.

Its capacity is growing fast and is due to be in a position to make 220,000t of green hydrogen annually by the end of 2024, said Rystad Energy. This would exceed the 200,000t target for 2025 a year early.

However, green hydrogen still only accounted for 1% of China’s hydrogen production in 2023, the South China Morning Post reported, citing data from China Hydrogen Alliance. 

Nevertheless, a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Ouyang Minggao, a prominent energy professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said rich renewable resources in north-west China offer a “unique advantage” in supporting the “key” energy required to produce green hydrogen. 

Utilisation in transportation

Green hydrogen is gradually “gaining more recognition” with its potential to help China’s low-carbon transition, Yao Zhe, global policy analyst for Greenpeace East Asia, told Carbon Brief.

“It is understood that green hydrogen will play an important role. However, what still needs further clarification is in which specific sectors it will have a more significant impact,” Yao said, adding that one sector mentioned by China was public transport.

A 2022 plan from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top planner, aimed to produce 50,000 hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV) in 2025.

For now, however, the vast majority of “new energy vehicles” being produced and sold in China are electric vehicles (EVs) – including battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles – whereas HFCVs account for a very small portion of the market. Yao agreed that HFCVs are “not necessarily needed as a solution to decarbonisation” for transport.

“From the perspective of researchers”, she said, “the primary application of green hydrogen in transportation will be in the long-distance heavy truck sector.”

The report by BCG and Ouyang echoed this idea, saying that long-haul heavy-duty trucks have the “biggest potential” for green hydrogen utilisation in transport, thanks to the fuel’s “higher energy density” and shorter time for refuelling.

China now dominates hydrogen-powered heavy-duty vehicles, with more than 95% of the world’s fuel-cell lorries in use in China, according to the IEA. Business news outlet Caixin reported that, in 2023, sales of “new energy-heavy trucks”, including pure electric vehicles, fuel cell trucks and plug-in hybrid trucks, in China surged by 139% year-on-year.

However, “high costs and the inconvenience of refuelling” remain a big challenge, Yao added: “This is problematic as China’s trucking industry is facing fierce competition, and its profit margins are already very low.”

Prof Yi Baolian, a prominent scientist with the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said in a speech in 2023 that “hydrogen fuel can only compete with diesel if the price drops below 30 yuan ($4.26) per kilogram”.

Currently, the cost of green hydrogen ranges from around 15 to 45 yuan per kilogram, state news agency Xinhua reported in May 2024. 

Decarbonising heavy industries

Despite the focus on transport, Yao said, “at least for me, green hydrogen will play its biggest role in the industrial field in the future”. 

Xinyi Shen, the China team lead at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told Carbon Brief that hydrogen utilisation in the steel sector was “technically feasible” and “seen as a promising technology”, with “hydrogen metallurgy” being successfully used in some pilot projects. But she added that “green hydrogen” has not been tried due to its high costs and was still “in a very early stage of development”. 

Shen said that it takes time for the technology, including the storage and transportation of hydrogen, to become “mature” and the cost to be acceptable for commercial production.

Other industries, such as petrochemicals, fertilisers and heating, are reportedly also attempting to use green hydrogen, but none of them has applied it at a large scale.

Shen told Carbon Brief that the broader use of green hydrogen as “a key pathway to achieve carbon neutrality” in different industries not only needs technology upgrades but also policy support. She said:

“Policymakers need to consider how to design market rules, including subsidies or taxes, to ensure that resources are applied across different industries, generating the greatest emissions reduction effect within the entire system.”

This spotlight is by freelance climate journalist Henry Zhang for Carbon Brief.

§ Watch, read, listen

CBAM: German publication Table published an analysis on how the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could affect China.

CHINA-BRAZIL: A comment piece by Leo Horn-Phathanothai, affiliate researcher with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Asia, and economist Rogerio Studart in Dialogue Earth said China and Brazil could “lead the way on South-South climate cooperation”.

SOLAR RACE: Bloomberg climate columnist David Fickling wrote a comment piece on how “the US lost the solar race to China” – and what it means for the “fight” over EV tariffs. 
75 YEARS: The Global Times published aseriesofeditorials to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. One of them listed environmental protection achievements, including China’s energy transition. 

§ 49%

The increase in China’s solar capacity between the end of August 2024 and a year earlier, according to National Energy Administration data cited by International Energy Net. Installed solar capacity reached 752GW in August, it said, with wind reaching 474GW, up 20%.

§ New science

Detection and attribution of changes in precipitation extremes in China and its different climate zones

Journal of climate 

“Anthropogenic forcing” has caused extreme precipitation to intensify in three of China’s four climate zones over 1961-2014, according to a new study. The authors conducted a “detection and attribution” analysis to investigate changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation over China, using models from the sixth coupled model intercomparison project. They found that increasing levels of human-produced greenhouse gas were the dominant contributor to the increase in rainfall.

Urban rooftops for food and energy in China

Nature cities

A new study comparing the benefits of urban rooftop agriculture and rooftop solar found that the former “yields superior economic benefits”, while the latter “excels in greenhouse gas emission reduction”. The authors compared the benefits of rooftop agriculture and rooftop solar, then considered their allocation strategies across 13m buildings in 124 Chinese cities. They found that allocating 61% of the flat rooftop area to agriculture and all the remaining space to solar panels, would meet 15% of “urban vegetable needs” and 5% of urban electricity needs.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to [email protected]