Cropped 20 December 2023: COP28 special edition

§ Key developments

Nature at COP28

BIODIVERSITY LINKS: COP28 came to a close last week and the interconnections between climate change and biodiversity featured heavily in the two-week summit. As Carbon Brief noted in an in-depth summary of the event, the global stocktake – the periodic global review of progress towards the aims of the Paris Agreement – contained eight references to “nature” and five to “biodiversity”. It also noted “the urgent need” to address climate change and biodiversity together and meet targets for both “in line” with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the landmark agreement of the 2022 COP15 biodiversity summit. COP28 president UAE and COP15 president China released a Joint Statement on Climate, Nature and People, where countries committed to aligning their national climate plans and their national nature plans ahead of COP30 and COP16, respectively.

FOCUS ON ECOSYSTEMS: The global stocktake also noted the importance of “ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems”, including oceans, mountains and the cryosphere. During the summit, the Guardian reported that, even if the world reaches a phase-out of fossil fuels, achieving the 1.5C target will be impossible if humanity fails to conserve nature, according to Prof Johan Rockström, a leading climate scientist. Speaking to Carbon Brief in Dubai, David Cooper, acting executive secretary of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), said that while nature has featured in many pledges and voluntary announcements at climate COPs in recent years, COP28 saw “more recognition in the actual official texts”. This included a greater focus on ecosystems, he said, adding: “What I’d like to see more is greater recognition of the role of ecosystems beyond their role as carbon sinks.”

ROAD TO COLOMBIA: Shortly after COP28 ended, the CBD confirmed that the next UN biodiversity summit, COP16, will be held in a yet-to-be-announced city in Colombia from 21 October to 1 November 2024. Cooper told Carbon Brief that he was “very excited” for Colombia to host the event, as it is a “megadiverse country, it has very strong Indigenous peoples’ organisations [and] a very strong scientific base”. Colombia’s environment minister, Susana Muhamad, said in a statement: “This event sends a message from Latin America to the world about the importance of climate action and the protection of life.” At COP16, governments will review the implementation of nature goals and targets and also update their national biodiversity plans.

Food at COP28

ROADMAP: COP28 “confronted” the question of balancing the need to reduce emissions and to feed a growing population “like never before”, wrote New York Times international climate correspondent Somini Sengupta. She cited a number of “small, but significant steps” made at the summit, from the leaders’ declaration on food systems – covered in the previous issue of Cropped – to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s first-ever roadmap to 1.5C. That roadmap is “the most significant nudge” of the summit, the New York Times said, but added: “Roadmaps, of course, are only that until someone starts following the directions.” Action Aid’s climate justice lead Teresa Anderson told Carbon Brief that the roadmap’s “big problem is that it can’t bring itself to name the real issues at stake” and by “failing to name chemical fertilisers, factory farming or industrialised agriculture as the major sources of emissions and deforestation, its recommendations boil down to protecting the status quo”.

WASTE NOT: Among the recommendations in the roadmap is the need to reduce food loss and waste by 50% per capita by 2030, and to integrate all such waste “in a circular bioeconomy” by 2050. According to the not-for-profit Modern Farmer, the US Department of Agriculture released a draft of its new national strategy on food loss and waste at COP28. The announcement was accompanied by an initial investment of $30m and sets out goals for the federal government, including preventing food loss and waste, increasing the recycling of organic wastes and “to support policies that echo those aims”.

TAKING STOCK: Another major outcome for food at COP28 was the inclusion of “resilient food systems” in the global stocktake. Ag Insider noted that, although the stocktake “urges” countries to implement solutions towards resilience, it did so “without setting goals for the sector that produces one-third of global greenhouse gases”. A report published by WWF that assessed COP28’s action on food systems noted that a stocktake “that directly calls for food systems transformation to mitigate climate change would likely lead to higher prioritisation and increased amounts of climate finance for food”. The report said the summit “[fell] short of delivering robust outcomes [for food] in the negotiating rooms”. But, WWF added, “there are still grounds for optimism”, such as “the breadth of stakeholders determined to drive change” in the agrifood sector. 

CONTRADICTORY AGENDA: An editorial in Nature Food cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to drive a sustainable agenda on food and climate after the nation announced its intention to join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec+) at COP28. The piece noted that Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) “has set the protection of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes as a priority” since regaining office. But the announcement that the country will join Opec+ in January, as well as its intention to auction several new blocks for oil drilling, “had a negative repercussion among environmentalists”. Nature Food noted that COP30 is set to be held in “the heart of the Amazon”, saying: “Domestically, this is an opportunity for Brazil to put itself on a different development pathway, fostering more sustainable food production and managing natural resources in a just and inclusive way.”

COP28 round-up 

GLASGOW RECEIPTS: COP26 in Glasgow saw several major political declarations around deforestation. While deforestation was lower on the agenda this year, it achieved one notable first: the global stocktake was the first time the need for “halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030” was enshrined in a major negotiated text under UN climate change. But, despite this, “countries are still no nearer to closing the ‘finance gap’ necessary to stop the destruction of rainforests”, Mongabay reported. The outlet added that the Democratic Republic of the Congo “says it has not seen any of the $500m pledged to it two years ago [at COP26] to protect the Congo Basin rainforest”. As Cropped editor Dr Giuliana Viglione reported at COP28, a group of NGOs released a call to create a “Glasgow Declaration Accountability Framework” to hold countries accountable for their deforestation pledges from COP26.

RESTORATION RECOGNISED: The global stocktake underlines the “vital importance of protecting, conserving, restoring and sustainably using nature and ecosystems” and encourages the implementation of nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based approaches, Carbon Brief reported. COP28 saw the announcement of updates to both the Mangrove Breakthrough and the Freshwater Challenge, two global commitments to restoring mangroves and rivers and wetlands, respectively. Another big outcome of the summit was the global goal on adaptation, a framework meant to help countries build resilience to climate change. The text included topics such as water, health and ecosystems, the Spanish outlet Climática reported. But, it added, the global goal on adaptation will not guarantee that 30% of ecosystems will be “maintained, improved or restored”, relying instead on targets such as “reach resilience” or “reduce impacts”.

INDIGENOUS RIGHTS: Despite being the UN climate summit with the largest delegation of Indigenous peoples ever, they remained marginalised in the discussions regarding financing, the Brazilian outlet InfoAmazonia reported. The outlet added that concerns about oil and gas auctions in the Amazon and the arrival of agricultural projects on Indigenous lands overshadowed the result of the summit. Carbon Brief reported that the global stocktake included nine mentions of Indigenous peoples; however, language in the text was considered weaker than hoped by experts. For example, the texts lack recognition of Indigenous people’s rights to give or withhold free, prior and informed consent to approve projects within their territories. 

METHANE ROUNDUP: Several voluntary pledges and finance pushes at COP28 focused on cutting methane emissions – and while many centred on fossil-fuel production, some homed in on food systems and agriculture. On 5 December, six major food companies, including Danone, Nestlé and Kraft Heinz, committed to release information on methane emissions within their dairy supply chains and to put in place methane action plans by the end of 2024. There were also several announcements of funds aimed at cutting emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, including more than $200m in public and private finance for research into reducing methane from livestock. 

§ News and views

JUMBOS IN JEOPARDY: Drought has killed “at least 100 elephants” in Zimbabwe’s largest national park in recent ​weeks, the Associated Press reported. Conservation groups and wildlife authorities have attributed the deaths to “the impact of climate change and El Niño”, while authorities warn that “more could die as forecasts suggest a scarcity of rains and rising heat” in areas including the Hwange National Park. Separately, the Hindu Business Line reported that nearly 500 elephants in India have died from “unnatural causes” over the past five years, mainly due to electrocution and train collisions. India’s power ministry, while continuing to expand its infrastructure in elephant habitat, has issued an advisory to “mitigate the impact of power transmission lines and other power infrastructure on elephants and other wildlife”, the outlet said.

TRILLION APOLOGIES: At COP28, ecologist and former chief scientific adviser to the UN’s Trillion Trees Campaign Prof Thomas Crowther “begg[ed] environmental ministers to stop planting so many trees”, Wired reported. Crowther’s 2019 study that suggested “global tree restoration as our most effective climate change solution to date” sparked a global “tree-planting craze by companies and leaders…from Shell to Donald Trump” who were “keen to burnish their green credential”, but not cut actual emissions, the story said. Crowther told Wired his “message was misinterpreted”. He added that he brought results from a new paper on preserving existing forests to COP28 in an attempt to “kill greenwashing”. One scientist on Twitter commented that Crowther should “retract the [original trillion trees] paper instead of doing PR”. 

START YOUR ENGINES: Tractors took over the streets of Berlin as hundreds of farmers protested against German government plans to get rid of some agricultural subsidies and tax breaks, Reuters reported. The plans are part of wider federal government efforts to fill a €60bn hole in the country’s 2024 budget, the newswire said. The government said it will remove a partial tax refund on diesel for farm machinery and a tax exemption for agricultural vehicles, Reuters noted – adding that this is something “farmers said would threaten their livelihood”. The newswire said that the plans are aimed to reduce emissions from the agricultural sector, which amounted to “55.5m metric tonnes of greenhouse emissions last year, roughly 7.4% of the country’s total”. 

TO BEE OR NOT TO BEE: Indigenous peoples in south-east Mexico are calling for the recognition of bees as legal persons, with Mayan communities as their guardians, the Spanish-language version of Wired reported. This came after rainforests in the region experienced “devastation” due to soya agriculture and the excessive use of pesticides, leading to “more and more” bees dying. Indigenous communities criticised the state for not yet granted such recognition. The outlet said that protecting bees “for their intrinsic value” is an “idea [that] comes naturally” to Indigenous peoples. This would not be the first time that nature received legal recognition, as the constitutions of Ecuador and Bolivia both consider nature as a separate and living entity.

DIET IMPACTS: Halving meat and dairy consumption alongside reducing fertiliser use and food waste are some of the best ways to cut agricultural nitrogen pollution in Europe, a new report found. The report – produced for the UN by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and other researchers – said that significant amounts of the nitrogen used to boost crop growth ends up leaking into the air, water and soils. The researchers looked at 144 scenarios and outlined ways to reduce these losses, which included halving the amount of meat and dairy the average European eats.

§ Watch, read, listen

IMPROVING CONNECTIVITY: El Espectador looked at how the movement of 26 bird species helped scientists identify key sites for conserving ecological connectivity in Colombia’s protected areas.

BIODIVERSITY PATTERNS: What makes a place more biodiverse? Jaron Adkins, a scientist at Utah State University, explored this question for Utah Public Radio.

KEEPING PACE: In her newsletter, Sustainability by numbers, Dr Hannah Ritchie examined whether agricultural innovation can keep up with climate change.

ROAD REVAMP: Ben Goldfarb, writing for Yale Environment 360, looked at “green roads” – a way of redesigning roads to reduce floods and catch excess water for irrigation.

FORAGING THROUGH FEAR: Writing for Vittles, anthropologist Dolly Kikon and writer Joel Fernandes connected the dots between land rights, new climate laws, conflict and foraging in landscapes of loss in India’s north-eastern state of Nagaland.

§ New science

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Climate Action Tracker

A new analysis of COP28 pledges found the “plausible” impact of its food and agriculture declaration on global emissions to be around 500m tonnes of CO2-equivalent by 2030. Climate Action Tracker assessed the emissions-reduction potential of five non-binding pledges made at COP28 and the extent to which those pledges overlap with already-promised reductions. The lack of “quantifiable targets in the initiative text” and “targets directly targeting emissions reductions”, result in a commitment “so vague as to risk becoming another talking shop”, the authors wrote. On deforestation, the assessment found that funding declarations in the hundreds of millions of dollars, as opposed to the billions needed to end deforestation in this decade, “are not truly new” and represent a “repeat of the commitments already made at COP26 in Glasgow”. 

Towards equity and justice in ocean sciences

npj Ocean Sustainability

A new review article examined progress towards equity in the ocean sciences and presented a pathway to addressing the gaps that remain in the field. A group of ocean scientists examined dozens of scientific papers on ocean equity and justice. They found that while the community has begun to identify and tackle existing power imbalances in ocean sciences over the past few years, “many issues still need to be addressed”. The authors called for “honest and transparent dialogue”, accompanied by “a significant shift in institutional cultures and norms” from scientists, professional societies, funders and other groups.

Are climate neutrality claims in the livestock sector too good to be true?

Environmental Research Letters

A number of scientific studies have “distorted understanding of the climate impact of livestock production”, a new “perspective” paper suggested. The researchers focused on the use of global warming potential (GWP) metrics, which standardise different greenhouse gases into one CO2-equivalent (CO2e). The “policymakers who wrote the Paris Agreement text” based its goals on “emissions pathways aggregated using GWP100”, the authors explained, which accounts for the warming caused by GHGs over a 100-year period and “does not differentiate between long-lived climate pollutants (LLCPs) and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)”. However, some recent studies “claiming that ruminant livestock sectors in developed economies are, or could readily be, climate neutral” have used the GWP* metric, which “accounts for the effect of changes in the rate of SLCP emissions on warming over time”. While the GWP* is a “useful complement” to other metrics, the claimed states of climate neutrality in specific sectors based on its use are “temporary and are not aligned to the wider outcomes of the Paris Agreement”, the paper concludes.

§ In the diary

• 20 December: Democratic Republic of the Congo general election
• 3-5 January 2024: Oxford Farming Conference | Oxford, England
• 15-19 January: World Economic Forum annual meeting | Davos, Switzerland

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to [email protected]