Report: Government needs a low regrets renewable energy plan B
The government is currently banking on new nuclear generation and carbon capture and storage technology to provide large chunks of low carbon energy in the future. But a new report out today says the government is taking a big risk if it fails to ensure there’s enough investment for a renewable energy “Plan B”.
Low regrets
The report, from thinktank Policy Connect, says the government must work with industry to ensure contingency plans are in place. It suggests identifying ‘low regrets’ levels of renewable technology deployment – balancing the risk of underinvestment leading to an unexpectedly large bill to ramp up renewables, and overinvesting in publicly subsidised projects when budgets are tight.
The government needs to decarbonise the UK’s energy sector as it tries to meet its own legally binding emissions targets. To do this, the government aims to have 16 gigawatts of new nuclear online by 2030 and is hoping carbon capture and storage technology development will allow lower-carbon fossil fuel generation over the coming decades.
But if these fail to materialise, the report claims renewable energy sources could need to provide between 45 and 55 per cent of the UK’s total generation by 2030. Renewable energy currently accounts for around 11 per cent of the UK’s electricity generation.
For example, the research argues the government should ensure at least 8 gigawatts of new offshore wind is built between 2020 and 2030 – the minimum amount the Committee on Climate Change says the UK will need in decarbonised energy sector. It encourages the government to identify similar ‘low regrets’ levels of investment for other renewable technologies.
Doing so would allow the government to pursue other energy options – such as shale gas – safe in the knowledge there will be just enough renewable investment in place should the deals fail.
Speaking at the report’s launch this afternoon, Energy Secretary Ed Davey agreed the country should increase the amount of renewable energy on the grid. But he ruled out a renewables-only strategy over policies to pursue “all forms of low carbon generation”, including nuclear power.
Political risks
Putting the groundwork for a renewables-reliant energy system in place now takes some pressure off delivering large amounts of new nuclear and CCS – neither of which are certain – the report says.
The government is locked in protracted negotiations with French energy company EDF over the level of public support for building two new nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point, Somerset. While it looks like they’ll strike a deal eventually, construction may not start until 2015.
And CCS remains something of a pipe dream in the UK. Currently, there are no commercial scale CCS plants in the UK – and the government isn’t expected to commit to funding any new demonstration projects until 2015.
So while the government remains hopeful its low carbon energy Plan A will work, Policy Connect says it would be foolish to risk all on this strategy. It wants the government to be able to look back on this juncture with low regrets – to guarantee that, the government needs to ensure investment in a renewable energy Plan B.