Im a policy wonk: Stern makes the case for change
Time is of the essence in creating the necessary response to climate change, Professor Nicholas Stern told the audience at the London School of Economics in the second of a three-lecture series making the case for a new energy-industrial revolution that transforms the way we consume and produce.
Last night, Stern looked at how public policy and the scope for technological change could create a new industrial revolution, to mirror the “waves of innovation” that have yielded leaps forward like the rapid advances in information technology over recent decades. According to him, the big difference this time round is the need for government input to correct what he famously branded the “market failure” of unchecked greenhouse gas rises.
Stern couches his vision for the new economy in the ideas of creative destruction and self-creating growth. Revolutions involve plenty of discovery, dislocation and disruption, he says. “If we do this well we’ll see two to three decades of greater growth” he argues, as well as explosive change.
The challenge
Sounds exciting, but what does it mean? Stern believes insufficient action since the release of his assessment of the economics of climate change, the Stern Review, in 2006, means the world now needs to cut emissions drastically if countries are going to stop warming breaking the UN’s two degree limit for acceptable warming. He made a clear call for government policies to adapt to and mitigate warming, arguing that adaptation to climate change becomes “extremely tough” as soon as temperatures go up by more than one degree.
One change Stern says he would make to the original review is to revisit the suggestion that emissions kept within the range of 450-550 parts per million (ppm) C02 would lead to manageable warming. Now, he says, we know that a concentration of 550 ppm would lead to a median three degrees of warming – which is way too high, meaning that the 450ppm mark is more like it.
Stern flags two other important developments – a big increase in “cleantech” patents over the past five years in low carbon technologies, and the falling costs of producing energy from these cleantech sources as technology has improved and multiplied. But, he says, limited progress in the years since the Stern Review was published means more high carbon infrastructure has been locked into the system, making carbon cuts more difficult in the long run.
Policy hostility
Stern notes that the current political climate, with the US Republican party’s hostility to climate measures and UK wrangling over carbon targets, can make the possibility of significant and timely change in the global economy feel far off.
But he points to the huge opposition to UK legislation to stop drink driving in the 1960s as an example of changing attitudes over the years. Since the law came in, the opinion that alcohol limits for drivers was denying working people the freedom to spend their money as they wished (sound familiar?) has evolved into a widespread view that drink driving is dangerous and unacceptable, Stern says.
This has happened because values have changed as the discussions and evidence in favour of the policy have evolved, he continues. He argues that communities are key in helping this uptake along, and that the rollout of new technologies is essential in broadcasting the benefits of new technology and greater efficiency.
Progress
But while policy seems to be stalling in some cases Stern says many countries are moving rapidly on the issue – China’s 12th five-year plan contains positive plans for renewable energy, although he believes this is currently being offset by the country’s growth. Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, one company plans to roll out microsolar power off the back of falling solar costs.
As for fossil fuel technologies, Stern says we must learn to “burn them in a clean way or stop using them”. He says shale gas could be a bridge technology as part of a move toward a cleaner energy system – but only if it replaces coal, not renewables.
Stern is clearly an optimist about technology. In the private sector, he notes, clean energy investment has increased rapidly, along with research into nanobatteries, nuclear waste as a potential fuel source, carbon capture and storage for producing cement and solar paints.
At a skeptic meeting earlier in the day, one speaker said the lectures could be summarised as Stern talking about Stern. But I’d counter that what we saw last night was actually a pretty rigorous examination of our options if we want to grow using limited resources. If you want to read more about any of this, the slides are available here – they’re well worth a look.
Stern will deliver the third lecture in the series, Climate change and the new industrial revolution – how we can respond and prosper, tonight at LSE.