Committee on Climate Change fires a salvo in battle over carbon budget
Should the UK loosen its climate commitments because other European countries aren’t making the same promises?
That’s the suggestion made by Chancellor George Osborne. In a letter to Ed Davey, government advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) says the answer is “no” – because European targets are broadly consistent with the UK’s plans.
The next climate fight
There’s a big political fight about green targets looming at the end of this year.
Under the fourth carbon budget – created by the country’s Climate Change Act – the government has committed to halving UK emissions by 2027, relative to 1990 levels.
Chancellor George Osborne argues this will put the country at a competitive disadvantage compared to its European partners because, he says, Europe isn’t displaying the same level of ambition. He is widely expected to use an upcoming review of the budget to argue the target should be weakened.
But in a letter to energy minister Ed Davey published today, the CCC argues that European-wide emissions targets are actually consistent with the fourth carbon budget.
The details of how the CCC have performed the calculations are not going to be published until December, when the review takes place. The chief executive of the CCC David Kennedy tells us:
“We know that it’s a live issue – people are already discussing the relationship between the budget and EU circumstances. But the debate is going on in the absence of data at the moment – we thought it was appropriate to put the analysis out now.”
Emissions budget should not change
The CCC’s letter says:
“The assumptions regarding EU circumstances upon which the fourth carbon budget decision was made have not changed, and therefore there is no legal or economic justification to change the budget in this respect at this time.”
The CCC is referring to the negotiation process between member states about 2030 climate targets.
In 2011, the European Commission released its ‘Low Carbon Roadmap‘ – committing to reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions 80 to 95 per cent by the middle of the century.
A Green Paper produced by the European Commission in March 2013 calculated that to meet this target, EU countries would need to reduce emissions by 40 percent by 2030. The CCC says the UK will be on the right track to match this 2030 target, if it sticks to the fourth carbon budget.
In the table below, it compares future carbon dioxide emissions from the UK power sector under the fourth carbon budget (the third row), with those mandated by the EU Low Carbon Roadmap (the second row), if EU emissions are cut 40 per cent by 2030.
Image - Screen Shot 2013-10-03 At 13.29.56 (note)
According to the analysis, allowable carbon dioxide emissions under the fourth carbon budget are slightly smaller than those predicted by this level of ambition from Europe.
So, the CCC argues, current EU climate policy is basically no more ambitious than UK climate targets – and so offers no justification to weaken them.
EU discussions?
It is worth pointing out that the EU have not yet agreed the 40 per cent by 2030 interim target. Negotiations are at an early stage, and some member states don’t want this target. But it looks as though some kind of 2030 target will be agreed.
Perhaps ironically, at an EU level, the UK has been arguing for more ambition rather than less – we want a stronger interim target of up to a 50 per cent reduction in EU emissions by 2030. And to meet that level of ambition, the CCC says today, the UK would need to tighten the fourth carbon budget.