2,000 solar farms unlikely to materialise under government roadmap
A new government roadmap for expanding solar power prompts media claims the countryside could see a “power boom” of 2,000 solar farms by the end of the decade. Solar power’s definitely on the up – but the predictions of huge numbers of new solar farms may say more about the need for a good headline than the reality on the ground.
Climate change minister Greg Barker launched a new document yesterday reiterating the government’s ambition to increase the UK’s solar power capacity to up to eight times its current levels. The Times predicted this could mean 2,000 new solar farms and the Daily Telegraph reported that local councils could get new powers to take local objections into account.
But does the coverage reflect how the nascent solar power industry is likely to unfold?
Solar power – the story so far
The government used to see solar power as something of a Cinderella technology – just a bit too expensive to contend with other renewable power sources. But a dramatic fall in the price of solar panels has prompted a rethink.
Today, the UK’s solar power capacity is still relatively small. It has 2.4 gigawatts (GW) of solar power, accounting for 2.9 percent of the renewable electricity the country generates. As the chart below shows, most of the recent expansion has come from small scale solar panels installed on people’s roofs.
The government boasts that rooftop installations of solar panels have increased from a few thousand three years ago to over 420,000 now.
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Ambition and strategy
The government says it plans to more than double the UK’s solar capacity – reaching somewhere between 7GW and 20GW by 2020.
Greg Barker – a solar enthusiast – writes in yesterday’s report that the upper end figure of 20GW is “not only desirable but also potentially achievable within a decade.”
The solar industry and National Grid are skeptical about whether 20GW can be achieved, because it represents such a significant expansion. But Ray Noble from the Solar Trade Association (STA) told us the government’s lower end 7GW is ” definitely” too low. The likely figure is probably somewhere in the middle.
Yesterday’s document may not do much to move this along practically. It’s really just an update of where we’re at – the government has been promising a dedicated strategy for solar power for some time, but it’s been delayed and now won’t emerge until the spring.
2,000 solar farms
So should we be concerned about England’s green and pleasant land being carpeted with photovoltaics?
Greg Barker suggests about a third of the 2020 solar target could come from large-scale solar farms, where solar panels are arranged in fields.
If the top end of the government’s solar ambitions are realised, that would mean about 7GW of power coming from solar farms. The Times suggests this could mean 2,000 new solar farms by 2020, and according to the STA 2000 farms would roughly equate to 7GW of capacity at current scales.
But there would obviously only be this many if the government hit its top-end target. Numbers of farms on this scale is probably unlikely, as it would present significant grid connection and site planning issues, according to the STA. More likely, it says, is that solar farms will get bigger in the future, allowing the UK to produce more power from less sites.
Community objections
In terms of assessing the impact of a growing solar power industry, the key question may not be about how many solar farms there are, but where they are and how communities feel about hosting them.
Parts of the media – including the Financial Times, Daily Mail and Times, have started to raise the possibility that local communities will object to solar developments.
In response, the STA has developed a 10-point best practice document for solar farms – including a commitment to minimising visual impact and working with local communities. The Department for Communities and Local Government has also produced planning guidance requiring local views to be taken into account.
According to the Times, “Barker said local communities ‘must be willing partners’ for solar farms, but added “there is not an absolute veto”. However it works through to on-the-ground infrastructure, a big expansion of solar power is in the offing.