What climate change means for vulnerable communities, and what that could mean for us
Climate change is set to increasingly disrupt food supplies and water resources in vulnerable areas like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Two new reports look at the effects of climate change on poorer communities around the world – and asks what they could mean for us.
The World Bank’s report, ‘ Turn down the heat‘, which is out today, looks at the likely effects of two degrees and four degrees warming on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
It warns that a two degree Celsius temperature rise could lead to a 10 million increase in malnourished children in Africa by the middle of the century. By the 2030s, just 1.5 degrees of warming could mean that 40 per cent of the land currently used for growing maize will be unsuitable for growing the crop.
A video lays it out: More drought means more crop failure, which leads to more hunger.
In South Asia, the report highlights the potential impact of changing seasons on the summer monsoon. If temperatures rise by four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an extreme wet monsoon, which currently occurs about once every hundred years, could occur every ten years by 2100.
Events like the Pakistan flood in 2010 could become “commonplace”, says the bank. And “physically plausible mechanisms” could even lead to an abrupt switch to drier conditions with less rain – precipitating a major crisis in the region.
Based on modelling by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, the report follows on from another report by the Bank last November, which warned if countries don’t fulfil current emissions reduction promises, the world could see a four degree temperature rise by the end of this century.
But what could this mean for the UK?
Yesterday, a paper from PriceWaterhouse Coopers concluded climate change’s impact on food supplies, trade and security around the world could be an ‘order of magnitude’ more significant for the UK than the changes we experience directly as a result of a changing climate.
Richer countries like the UK have more resilience to the effects of climate change. In some ways, the country may even benefit – attracting investors as a result of its ability to adapt to changing world, for example. But overall, the threats “significantly outweigh opportunities” the report says.
The UK holds nearly £10 trillion of assets abroad, and has trading relationships around the world. Richard Gledhill from PwC puts it simply:
“We can’t afford to think of ourselves as an island when it comes to risks in investment, supply chains and trading”.
Again, food ranks high on the list of worries. Over the next decade or so, the report says food prices are not expected to increase because technological progress in food production should keep up with global population growth. But over the longer term, things don’t look so good – for example, the price of maize on the international markets may double by mid-century.
Food prices are set globally. But in many other areas – when considering trading relationships and investments for example – it’s a good idea to think about which countries matter most to the UK.
Rich countries are more resilient to climate change as they are more able to adapt to a changing environment. But in some cases – for example the USA, Australia and some European countries – the UK has such strong business links with those countries that it may still be profoundly affected by how they respond. The UK has weaker links with developing countries – but some, for example Sudan and Eritrea, are so vulnerable that what happens to them could still matter a great deal to the UK, for example because of the need to provide humanitarian aid.
The report maps these factors out on a ‘priority matrix’ of countries, to help policymakers decide which countries to focus on:
