Three charts showing why the world needs to take climate change action now
The International Energy Agency (IEA) today says limiting warming to two degrees “remains technically feasible but is extremely challenging”. The agency has released a report suggesting urgent action is needed to to keep global temperature rise below the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s official target .
IEA chief economist, Fatih Birol, says while “the chances of reaching two degrees are declining, it doesn’t mean we should continue with inaction”. The report urges governments to implement a number of targeted policies while international negotiations continue.
Four measures to meet the two degrees target
The IEA isn’t particularly confident the world’s governments will commit to the necessary policies any time soon, so its come up with a set of four policies to buy politicians some time. Committing to the policies would mean the two degrees target could still be met so long as far-reaching changes are made after 2020, the IEA says.
The IEA is encouraging national governments to:
Significantly improve energy efficiency
Limit the use of coal-fired power plants
Reduce releasing or burning-off natural gas in oil and gas production
Phase out specific fossil fuel subsidies
All the policies can be achieved with currently existing technology and without harming economic growth, the IEA claims. The policies are also designed to have other benefits, such as reducing local air pollution.
The graph below shows the emissions saved in 2020 by implementing the four policies compared to the expected emissions from current policies. The difference between the two bars on the far right of the graph shows the level of extra reductions countries would have to make to get fully back on track for the two degrees target.
Climate change will impact the energy sector
The report also comes with a warning from Birol: “the energy sector is not immune to climate change”. The IEA outlines a number of ways climate change is expected to impact the world’s energy infrastructure – as the map below shows:
The IEA’s analysis shows how higher temperatures make it harder to cool power plants in Asia, drought could curb energy production in Africa, and that nearly 300 energy facilities could be at risk from rising sea levels in the US.
We can’t burn all the fossil fuels
The IEA’s modelling shows much of the world’s fossil fuel reserves can’t be burnt if warming is going to be kept below two degrees.
It calculates the energy sector could only emit another 884 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, and only 20 per cent of global coal reserves could be used:
Image - IEA fossil fuels (note)
Disregarding those fuels from the future energy mix would have a significant economic impact, research by Carbon Tracker Initiative has shown. Fossil fuel reserves supported shares worth $4 trillion in 2012. But those shares are worth much less if the reserves are never going to be burnt.
Scary picture, pragmatic approach
The IEA’s report is one of many that looks at different ways to curb global emissions. In contrast to some reports, it provides some practical policy suggestions which would “keep the door open” to meeting the two degrees goal.
Nonetheless, the report makes it clear radical changes to the way energy is produced and consumed need to happen fast if the world is to stand any chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change. This report shows the IEA is preparing for a world where those efforts have to begin without a guiding international agreement.