Explainer: New negotiating text provides clarity on UN climate deal
The United Nations has released a new document outlining what the Paris climate deal could look like, which countries hope to sign in December this year.
The two diplomats responsible for steering the challenging negotiations towards a successful outcome in December, Dan Reifsnyder from the US and Ahmed Djoghlaf from Algeria, released a new text – or a “tool”, as they are calling it – last Friday.
It is the product of a six weeks of work, following the latest round of talks in June. It attempts to summarise the latest positions and thinking from the 196 parties involved in crafting the new deal, which will guide international efforts to tackle climate change beyond 2020.
Streamlining
The new text is based on the Geneva negotiating text – an 86-page document that countries constructed in February, following a major round of talks in December 2014 in Lima.
The new text has been reduced to 76 pages through a process of careful streamlining. This largely involved erasing duplication and redundancies from the Geneva text – a messy, if comprehensive, document, that had, as far as it was possible, attempted to accommodate all parties’ views.
The co-chairs have not removed any substantive language or options from the text concerning the final content of the agreement. This sort of whittling down is the responsibility of the parties, and is likely to commence in earnest in Bonn in upcoming sessions, the first of which begins this August
However, it does significantly restructure the Geneva text.
It separates the previous morass of options into three categories:
Ideas that are expected to form the core of the new agreement, which will likely be long-lasting and legally binding;
Ideas that are more suited to a series of more flexible “COP decisions”;
Ideas that belong somewhere, but will require further discussion to decide where. This final section remains the longest and contains many of the most controversial proposals, such as the long-term goal for emissions reductions.
Impact
The co-chairs stress that the new text does not have an official status within the negotiations, and does not prejudge the outcome of the talks. That is to say, parties are still within their rights to discard all their work if they feel it misrepresents their views or oversteps the mark in any way.
As expected, the text remains highly conditional and flexible. Nothing is set in stone, and many options remain highly contentious. As Reifsnyder and Djoghlaf have written in the explanatory note prefacing the text, “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.
In UN texts, square brackets mean that the phrase within remains optional. Effectively, the whole text can be considered to be in brackets, although that hasn’t stopped the co-chairs sprinkling them liberally throughout the text to indicate the points that will need to be negotiated – right down to what sort of verb is used to commit countries to the options they chose. The co-chairs promise that “the choice of the appropriate auxiliary verb will be up for substantive negotiations by Parties”.
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An example of how the text currently appears, including a morass of brackets and various options, which will be negotiated during the course of the year. Source: Co-chairs’ text, 24 July 2015
In the past, interventions on this scale by the co-chairs have been received negatively, but the current indications are that the level of trust in Reifsnyder and Djoghlaf is high, with parties becoming more willing to cooperate as the Paris deadline looms.
And if there is one thing that parties are agreed on, it is that the talks are going too slowly.
With only two negotiating sessions remaining before the final summit in Paris, the guidance provided by the new text could be the boost that parties need to move beyond the minutiae and into the substantive discussions that will determine the final shape of the UN’s climate deal.
Carbon Brief has summarised the co-chairs’ text in detail. This summary is intended to show where the issues on the table now sit within the text, as well as a brief overview of the range of options from which countries much choose in Paris.
The new text has not completely erased any overlap, with some issues raised in multiple sections. The overarching headlines – mitigation; adaptation and loss and damage; finance; technology; capacity building; transparency; time frames; and compliance – appear in every section.
This summary shows which issues are expected to appear in each section – though any of them could still be removed from the final version that diplomats agree in Paris.
The UN has a helpful glossary of climate change terms that may be helpful in interpreting some parts of the text.
The co-chairs’ text: the Carbon Brief summary
Part 1: Agreement
This is the core of the Paris package, dealing with the overarching elements. It is expected to be static, durable and the most legally binding part of the deal.
Mitigation
Collective efforts – overall targets for emissions reductions
Individual efforts – what individual countries are obliged to do in terms of tackling their emissions
Progression – how countries can increase their ambition over time
Adaptation and loss and damage
Collective efforts – overall targets for preparing for climate impacts
Individual efforts – how countries should prepare themselves for climate change, through national processes such as development planning
Communication of efforts, priorities and needs – how countries should inform the UN of their intended actions
Finance
Objective – a collective, though non-numerical, goal for finance flows relating to tackling climate change
Guiding principles – rules and guidelines for finance used to tackle climate change
Responsibilities under the agreement – the obligation of developed countries to provide finance
Financial mechanism – refers back to the financial mechanism referenced in the original 1992 UN climate convention
Technology development and transfer
Cooperative action – the overall duties that countries have to facilitate the transfer of technology across borders
Capacity building
Objective – defines purpose of capacity building
Individual efforts – the obligation of developed countries to support poorer nations in implementing climate actions
Training and awareness
Transparency of action and support
Purpose – how to ensure action on climate change is carried out transparently
Guiding principles – rules to guide action on transparency
Scope – the extent of transparency measures
Applicability – how transparency measures should be implemented
Time frames
Timing of communications – when countries have to put forward their contributions or schedules
Upfront information – what kind of obligation exists to provide information to assist clarity on the contribution
Adjustments – rules defining the scaling up of ambition in nationally determined contributions
Housing – how countries’ contributions should be listed in the Paris deal
Periodic updating – what kind of obligation exists to update nationally determined contributions or schedules
Review/assessment – what kind of review takes place of the national contributions
Implementation and compliance
How to ensure the deal is implemented
Procedural and institutional provisions
Governing body – how the agreement will be governed
Ratification – will set dates for when the deal can be signed and ratified
Entry into force – conditions and timings for the agreement to become live
Duration – how long the agreement will last
Amendments – conditions for amending the agreement
Annexes – defines status and type of content of the annexes in the agreement
Withdrawal – conditions for withdrawing from agreement
Part 2: COP decisions
COP decisions are more flexible, and exist to provide guidance and detailed information about how the core agreement is implemented and designed.
Mitigation
Market mechanisms – sets out rules, guidelines and work to be done in order to establish a market-based mechanism to tackle emissions
REDD+ – strengthens institutions relating to the UN’s deforestation and degradation scheme
Adaptation and loss and damage
National adaptation planning processes – sets rules and guidance for national planning processes, including considerations for human and indigenous rights, and strengthening institutional arrangements, and enhancing the Nairobi work programme
Loss and damage
Proposes strengthening Warsaw Mechanism for Loss and Damage, establish a climate change displacement facility, and additional methods for dealing with climate risk
Finance
Lays out possibilities for pre-2020 actions, institutional arrangements, rules and guidance for the Green Climate Fund, plus timing and goals of future finance
Technology development and transfer
Concerns institutional arrangements and how to deliver on technology transfer projects
Capacity building
Includes possibilities for a new international capacity building mechanism, including a new capacity building committee, evaluation mechanism and regional capacity building centres. Contains alternative options to strengthen existing institutions and enhance role of private sector
Transparency of action and support
Contains guidelines for improved transparency of action, reporting on progress towards nationally determined contributions, as well as guidelines for transparency on financial support
Time frames
Options for time frames for future contributions
Options for how regularly new and updated contributions are communicated
Timing and methods for an ex-ante (post-pledge) consideration process by parties, as well as for an aggregate review process. Contains suggestions for what an aggregate review process could look like
Implementation and compliance
Suggestions for how a compliance committee could deal with non-compliance to the agreement
Pre-2020 ambition
Deals with the issue of how nations will tackle climate change ahead of the Paris deal coming into force
Work programme for the interim period pending the entry into force of the agreement
Sets out a series of activities to carry out ahead of the Paris deal becoming active
Interim institutional arrangements
Sets out the bodies that will prepare for the entry into force of the agreement
Administrative and budgetary matters
Emphasises need for additional resources required to carry out administrative tasks relating to Paris deal
Part 3: Undecided elements
Preamble
References, among other things, urgency of climate change, the findings of the latest IPCC report, the emissions gap, need for deep global cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, historical emissions of developed countries, carbon pricing, challenges of adaptation, loss and damage, role of private sector, post-2015 development agenda and health
General/objectives
Guiding principles – overarching aims of deal
Achieving the objective – more specific requirements of deal, including temperature goal, sustainable investments and the global emissions budget
Individual efforts – what type of contributions countries are required to make to the deal
Role of non-state actors
Mitigation
Long term goal – whether mitigation efforts should take the form of a peaking target, a zero emissions goal, or in the context of the emissions budget
Features of individual efforts – what type of actions should be included within nationally determined contributions or actions
Quantifiability
Conditionality – whether or not commitments can have a conditional element to them, and conditions for this
Market mechanisms – guidelines for a carbon market, and possible mechanisms through which this could be carried out
Conditions for land use sector
Economic and social issues
International transport – shipping and aviation handed over to ICAO and IMO
Adaptation and loss and damage
Lays out possibility for a global goal for adaptation
National Adaptation Plans – how national planning processes could be integrated into adaptation process
Conditions for including an adaptation element in INDCs
Guidelines on monitoring adaptation actions
Roles for various existing institutions, and new institutions
Loss and damage
Options for how loss and damage should be incorporated into the agreement, either via reference to the Warsaw Mechanism, or as a separate chapter. Raises issue of compensation
Finance
Clarity and scale – options for the process of scaling up financial support over time
Individual commitments – possibilities for calculating the amount of climate finance that countries should contribute
Encouragement for South-South initiatives
Leveraging private finance – options to encourage and enable greater flows of private money
Investments – options for climate-proofing investments, including possibilities for a collective goal, and tackling fossil fuel subsidies
Enabling environment – how nations can create a better environment for clean investments
Funding for adaptation – potential guidelines and sources for increased adaptation funds
Funding for technology
Funding for capacity building and education
Funding for forests – how countries can support forest projects, including through the Warsaw Framework for REDD+
Sources – where the money will come from, including division between public and private, with ideas included for a tax on oil exports and an international renewable energy and energy efficiency bond facility
Institutional arrangements
Green Climate Fund – Guidelines for GCF provisions and replenishment
Technology development and transfer
Global goal for technology – suggestion that developed countries could commit to regular assessments of technologies ready to transfer
Individual efforts – how parties, both developed and developing, can promote and enable technology transfer, including provisions for new policy frameworks, technical support, finance, strengthening of national structures, addressing intellectual property rights, conducting assessments of technology needs, scaling up research and development
Capacity building
Focus for capacity building measures
Possibilities for institutions to carry out capacity building measures
Transparency of action and support
Scope – options for the information that countries ought to provide in biennial communications concerning how they are implementing their contributions
General principles on how countries should count their mitigation actions, including market mechanisms, land use sector, finance, technology transfer and capacity building
Establishes a new system to track emissions reductions in order to avoid double counting
Time frames
Scope – what kind of commitments parties should make
Duration – how long the agreement lasts
Timing of communication – when countries should submit their INDCs
Upfront information – what information countries should include when submitting their future INDCs
Revisions – when countries should update their INDCs
Availability – how the secretariat should make schedules and contributions available to the public, such as through an information document or online registries
Ex-ante process – how a process to assess the aggregate fairness, impact, clarity, comparability and deficits of INDCs could work, as well as what actions parties should take based upon the outcome of such a process. Options deal with the issue of how the process could differ for developed and developing countries
Thematic reviews – lays out the possibilities for reviews relating specifically to mitigation, technology and capacity building
Applicability – options for which parties should be subject to which elements of the review process
Inputs – what information the review should be based upon, including national progress towards achieving contributions, IPCC assessment reports, a technical examination of mitigation potential and opportunities, input from non-state actors, and assessment against an equity reference framework, and each country’s’ share of global temperature increase among other factors
Outcomes – Options for what should take place after the review, including the possibility for the governing body to recommend adjustments to parties’ commitments, or parties taking into account the findings in subsequent INDCs
Implementation and compliance
Establishes a compliance mechanism, and lays out what actions and commitments it should examine, as well as which parties will fall under its watch. Sets out options for what measures or consequences can be applied for non-compliance
Contains a separate option establishing a climate justice tribunal
Procedural and institutional provisions
Contains a system by which the annexes to the Convention (ie, which parties are considered developed and developing) could be rewritten, based upon historical per capita emissions.