The US won’t hit its climate targets without Congress
At first glance, a new report from the World Resources Institute (WRI) might look like good news for US greenhouse gas emissions.
Although the world’s largest economy is currently missing its 2020 emissions reduction target, it should be possible for the president to make the target without help from a stubborn Congress.
With climate likely to feature prominently in next week’s State of the Union speech, the WRI outlines the things President Obama can do to cut emissions over the rest of the decade.
That’s the good news. But if the US is going to meet longer-term emissions targets, the report concludes that Congress will need to cooperate with the president and pass legislation – otherwise emissions cuts will grind to a halt.
Meeting targets
At the Copenhagen climate conference President Obama pledged to cut US emissions by 17 per cent (on 2005 levels) by 2020.
The US has made some progress towards this goal – for a range of reasons. But federal climate action stalled in 2010 after Obama failed to get climate change legislation passed in the Senate.
Individual states have been pressing ahead with emissions cuts. But the WRI says that the best this state level approach can achieve is a 12 per cent reduction. To meet targets, national action will be needed.
The WRI outlines four different policy approaches it calls “lacklustre”, “middle-of-the-road”, “go-getter”, and “business-as-usual”.
Only the most ambitious go-getter scenario meets the 2020 target, as this graphic from the report shows:
Source: World Resources Institute, Can the U.S. Get There from Here? Using Existing Federal Laws and State Action to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, report summary
This requires the federal government to better regulate power plants, the natural gas system, different forms of transport and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that come from refrigeration and air conditioning. This means a slew of work for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Electricity
About a third of the US’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were from the electricity sector, so cleaning up how the US gets its electricity is one of the best opportunities for it to reduce emissions.
The WRI suggests that to start with, the EPA imposes strict performance standards on power plants. These standards would require all electricity generators to use cleaner fuel sources and become more efficient. This could lead to a 38 per cent cut on 2012 emissions by 2021.
Fridge gases
The WRI says highly polluting hydrofluorocarbon gases (HFCs) should also be regulated more aggressively. The US proposed an amendment to the Montreal Protocol in 2012 that sets a timetable for the global phaseout of the gases.
But a ‘go-getter’ EPA would implement measures to ramp-down HFC emissions faster – cutting them 85 per cent on 2005-2008 levels by 2028.
Natural gas
A cheap way the US can reduce its emissions is through equipment upgrades and better inspection techniques in the natural gas system. The WRI says emissions from natural gas systems could be 67 per cent lower if the EPA implements stringent measures.
The WRI identifies a range of other areas that could be regulated to reduce emissions – like making cars, trucks, and household heaters more efficient. So it looks like the EPA might have quite a lot of work to do.
Congress is needed
The report illustrates that current US emissions targets are going to put a lot of pressure on the EPA to regulate US polluters. However, the WRI concludes that even if the EPA is very proactive, the US will still miss longer term emissions targets.
In order to achieve the long term target of an 83 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050 Congress needs to pass major legislation, the report says.
The WRI says that if the US is serious about climate change:
“…a cooperative approach bringing together Congress, states, and the executive branch will be necessary for the United States to do its part.”
In other words, no amount of presidential go-getting will get round the need for the whole of government to agree to cut US emissions.