Government report says adaptation has benefits, but the risks of climate change are still the main issue
The UK faces numerous and serious threats from climate change. But by addressing those risks early, the worst outcomes can be avoided – and there may even be benefits to gain. Those are the conclusions from the newly released National Adaptation Programme, published yesterday by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).
The new report outlines the steps government, businesses and communities are already taking to address the most severe and urgent threats of climate change, as identified by Defra last year in its Climate Change Risk Assessment.
Both the adaptation programme and the risk assessment are legal requirements of the 2008 Climate Change Act, making them pretty important pieces of work. So it seems strange that the report slipped out yesterday with so little fanfare.
Here we take a closer look at some of the adaptation measures the report outlines, untangle claims that climate change could be beneficial, and look at the ‘opportunities’ the report says can be gained in a well-prepared society.
Targeted adaptation
The report identifies the major threats to the UK which require targeted adaptation responses across six sectors.
For the built environment, those threats include the risk of flooding to homes, businesses and energy infrastructure. Urban areas are at risk of warming much faster than elsewhere, posing a threat to industry and human health. Railways and motorways could also face floods, and even basic sanitation provisions could be compromised, the report says.
For the natural world there are threats too. Animal species may be lost as they move to cooler climes, while changing river conditions and ocean acidification will threaten sea life. Plant species will be exposed to new diseases, and agricultural land may be flooded. Vulnerable people and communities may be at risk of illness as summers get hotter.
But early intervention can lessen the impacts, the report says. For example a local government programme called Drain London is helping city boroughs to map out where surface flooding might occur, and take steps to alleviate the risk, such as keeping drains clear. There are also national schemes, such as the annual Heatwave Plan, which sets out a series of actions to be taken by the NHS and social care professionals to reduce heat-related deaths.
Will there be benefits?
While the report demonstrates some of the worst effect of climate change can be lessened with early intervention, some media coverage went further – focusing on the beneficial changes that climate change could bring.
The report does highlight some positives – the fishing industry could get a boost if non-native species like sea bass, red mullet and squid migrate to UK waters, and apparently the tourism trade could benefit if summers warm.
Farmers’ harvests could, in theory, improve under warmer temperatures with more carbon dioxide, the report says. Take that with a pinch of salt though, as the report identifies flooding as one of the biggest threats to agricultural land. Familiar claims about changes in mortality appear too, but while there may be fewer winter deaths, “these are likely to be outweighed by a range of negative effects”, according to the report.
On balance, the adaptation programme doesn’t paint a picture of pros cancelling cons, and neither did the climate change risk assessment which came before it. While some benefits will probably materialise, they will be outweighed by the negatives.
Better than nothing
Defra’s adaptation programme focuses on the ‘opportunities’ that taking action can offer. In short, it says adaptation can support growth, be good value for money, and provide jobs – a noble attempt to find the positives.
The report estimates that every £1 spent on adaptation represents four times its value in potential damages avoided – leaving more money to spend on growing the economy.
Many adaptation measures are ‘low-regret’, it says, delivering benefits straight away and under “virtually any future climate scenario”. Some measures are low cost too – meaning the benefits only need to be modest over time to reap benefits.
Uniquely, the report also identifies adaptation services as an emerging market to help the UK economy to grow. A greater focus on adaptation in the UK could “stimulate enterprise in a global market for adaptation goods and services” the report suggests.
What’s missing?
The report suggests governments, businesses and community organisations are starting to recognise the importance of adaptation. Selling adaptation as an ‘opportunity’ might help shift behaviour. But the report has some missed opportunities.
Very little attention is paid to the issue at the core of all this work – climate change. Rising temperatures and sea levels get a token mention at the outset, but there is little sense from the document that it’s a response to a changing climate.
The other major missed opportunity is a discussion of where mitigation fits in. As the report demonstrates, adaptation will help lessen many of the impacts – but not all can be avoided. Emissions reductions and adaptation both have a role to play in lessening the impact of climate change, but you wouldn’t know that from this report.
There’s much more to come on this issue, however. Next week the Committee on Climate Change will release its own report on how the UK’s land is adapting to climate change, and in early 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release its assessment of the science on how best to adapt to climate change. It will be interesting to see how the differing assessments match up.