Five hot topics from this year’s European Geosciences Union conference
Last week scientists gathered in Vienna for the European Geosciences Union (EGU) 2013 annual meeting – a five-day conference covering all things earth, planetary and space science. Here’s what we were watching:
1. Rising thunderstorm losses
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Damages caused bu Hurricane Ike in September 2012. Image sourced under Creative Commons
On Monday afternoon, Dr Eberhard Faust from insurance group Munich Re presented new modelling on the rising costs of thunderstorms, based on a region of the United States east of the Rockies.
Although the rising losses from thunderstorms can’t be conclusively linked to climate change, Faust said, the results are in line with climate models’ predictions – that storms will have more energy as the atmosphere becomes more humid.
Faust showed that over the last 20 years, the number of big loss events – costing over $250 million in damages – more than doubled. By looking at past climate data, they were able to detect an increase in the force of thunderstorms over the same time period.
Previously, rising thunderstorm losses had been linked to the increasing value of infrastructure at risk – but Munich Re’s analysis detected an increase in the destructive forces of thunderstorms which matched well with rising costs.
2. Turbulent transatlantic flights
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Transatlantic flights will experience greater turbulence thanks to climate change. Image sourced under Creative Commons.
Following on the theme of climate impacts, Dr Paul Williams from the University of Reading presented his latest research in the journal Nature Climate Change, describing how changes in the jet stream could increase turbulence on transatlantic flights.
Williams explained that thanks to climate change, wind speeds are increasing in the region 10 kilometres above earth’s surface known as the jet stream – so called because it’s where planes fly. A doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could see the strength of turbulence grow by between 10 and 40 per cent, said Willliams, while the amount of airspace containing turbulence would rise on average by 100 per cent.
Bumpier flight time isn’t the only problem, either – addition turbulence could see planes being rerouted, with increasing fuel costs and extra greenhouse emissions.
3. Turning back the clock with carbon capture
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Capturing greenhouse gas emissions from power plants might help slow warming. Image sourced under Creative Commons.
On Wednesday morning, Andrew MacDougall from the University of Victoria in Canada discussed his research on what might happen if greenhouse gas levels were reduced to pre-industrial levels using carbon capture and storage (CCS) – technology to remove and store away carbon from the atmosphere.
His unpublished modelling suggests that even after carbon dioxide is removed, the atmosphere would still be warmer than expected. That’s because land and oceans currently absorb about half of the carbon from manmade emissions. But if CCS is used to remove atmospheric carbon, these sinks change to sources, re-emitting the warming carbon.
On top of that, knock on effects of a warming atmosphere like melting permafrost could permanently release emissions. That means we would have to capture and store more carbon than humans have emitted to return to pre-industrial temperatures.
The good news from MacDougall’s models was that ocean acidification is largely reversible with the use of CCS technology, but sea level rise from the melting Greenland ice sheet would last for many thousands of years.
4. Important uncertainties for meeting the 2°C target
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Political choices about mitigating climate change are the biggest reason for uncertainty about whether climate change can be kept to two degrees Celsius. Image sourced under Creative Commons.
In the same session Joeri Rogelj, from ETH Zurich University, looked which uncertainties matter most when it comes to keeping temperature rise to two degrees Celsius. Rogelj’s research, just published in the journal Nature, shows that political uncertainty is the biggest barrier to limiting temperature rise.
Although there are uncertainties about how earth will respond to rising greenhouse gas emissions, the timing of political action is the most critical of all the uncertainties, says Rogelj.
“If you delay global mitigation action by 10 or 20 years, the geophysical uncertainties become irrelevant for the two degree target”
If global mitigation action is taken today, Rogelj’s model suggests there’s about a 70 per cent chance of staying below two degrees Celsius. If action is delayed to 2020, there’s about a 60 per cent chance, and if inaction continues to 2030 there’s only about a 20 per cent chance of staying below two degrees
5. Great debate on fracking
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A shale gas drilling tower in Pennsylvania, US. Image sourced under Creative Commons.
At the centre of the EGU’s conference was Wednesday afternoon’s great debate on fracking. 500 eager scientists packed the hall to listen to representatives from academia, government and NGOs discuss the issue, the panel agreeing there are still many obstacles to the development of a European shale oil and gas industry.
Professor Brian Horsfield of the German Research Centre for Geosciences pointed out European infrastructure would need to develop significantly to cope with a high population density and strict environmental regulations – obstacles which weren’t in place to impede a US boom.
Fracking may also pose problems for regional water resources too Рwe learned from Professor Jes̼s Carrera of the Spanish Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research that a single fracking well uses about 30,000 cubic meters of water Рabout the yearly consumption of a small village.
A representative for the UK’s Energy and Climate Change (ECC) committee also offered some insight into the challenges for the UK industry (we’ve taken a closer look here). He implied that CCS technology would be essential for fracking activities in the UK, and that the committee is likely to seek to regulate more strongly than their US counterparts.
What else?
We’ve barely scratched the surface here – there were thousands more poster presentations, talks and papers. To find out more, check out the EGU website or head to twitter and look for all things tagged #EGU2013 .