Climate change experts support shale gas – but only with caveats
The UK should go ahead with fracking for shale gas in order to reduce emissions from the energy sector, according to media reports on a study by leading climate change experts. But it turns out not to be that simple. While the new report argues that the country could cut emissions by burning natural gas instead of coal, it warns significant amounts of UK shale gas may not commercially available until the late 2020s – and emissions will only come down with carbon capture technology.
The report from the Grantham Institute at LSE primarily analyses what a new ‘dash for gas’ could mean for UK energy prices and emissions. It asks whether a significant expansion of gas power could bring down greenhouse gas emissions and energy prices, and if exploiting UK shale gas specifically could increase the country’s energy security.
Using gas to reduce emissions?
Over the next few decades the UK energy system will undergo a “significant transformation”, the report says. Old power plant will close down, the electrification of heat and transport will drive up electricity demand, and more renewables will come onto the system.
The UK could reduce emissions from the power sector in the next few years by burning more gas and less coal, according to the report. This is because natural gas emits 57 per cent less carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour (kWh) than coal does. But in the longer term, the report is critical of the government’s plans to build new gas-fired power stations, arguing that it is inconsistent with the Committee on Climate Change’s recommendation that the power sector be ” virtually decarbonised” by 2030 – running the risk of ‘locking’ large amounts of gas into the energy system, jeopardising the UK’s climate targets.
Shale gas and energy security
Using predictions from the British Geological Survey and the US Energy Information Administration amongst others, the report questions optimistic predictions about the potential for shale gas in this country. It argues the amount of shale gas that can be extracted “is still uncertain”, so “further exploration will be needed to clarify its full potential”.
The UK has been a net importer of gas since 2004. Grantham argues the UK is likely to remain a substantial net gas importer, even if the country develops a thriving shale gas industry. This is because shale gas may only compensate for a decline in UK production of shale gas from more conventional sources like the UK Continental Shelf, rather than increasing overall production:
Image - Screen Shot 2013-03-19 At 09.53.28 (note)
UK shale gas is unlikely to significantly reduce gas prices in this country, it concludes. Prices will remain subject to the vagaries of the international market. On the other hand, shale gas could help reduce the UK’s dependence on gas imports.
Reducing emissions – only with CCS
Logistical and environmental constraints including the planning system and the need to gain public acceptability mean that it could take a new shale gas industry “more than a decade” or even “a couple of decades” to develop in this country, according to the report. This means that significant amounts of indigenously produced shale gas may not be available until the mid to late 2020s at the earliest.
Bob Ward, the Grantham Institute’s policy and communications director, told Carbon Brief that if the UK aims to hit its emissions reductions targets, the country should scale down its gas use in the 2020. And gas must only play a significant role in the energy system if carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is used to reduce emissions. He says:
“If we want shale we need to be developing CCS at the same time. It doesn’t work if we don’t have it. We need to know within the next few years when and if we will get CCS.”
“Strong UK government support” is necessary for research, development and deployment of CCS technology over the next few years, the report says.
But it’s still uncertain whether this is likely to happen. At present there are no full-scale working CCS plants in the UK. The government was forced to cancel a competition last October after the only bid it received could not operate within a £1 billion budget.
Meanwhile, the UK may also miss out on EU funding for CCS as the Treasury seems unwilling release the required funds to make the UK eligible.
The report also highlights other climate risks associated with the use of shale gas – including the risk that fugitive methane emissions from the fracking process will drive up overall emissions. There’s also a risk that a coal-to-gas switch could just shift emissions elsewhere if the coal is exported, as has happened already in North America.
Dash for smart gas
The report concludes with a call for a dash for “smart” gas. This means using natural gas “judiciously”, addressing the environmental problems associated with shale gas extraction and developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to reduce emissions from gas power stations.
Gas, it argues, will continue to have an important role by displacing coal generation and providing the flexibility to back up intermittent renewables like wind power. But plans based on the assumption that gas prices are ‘guaranteed’ to go down or that UK shale gas will significantly increase energy security or drive down gas prices are “misguided”, it adds.
So does the report really back shale gas? It certainly acknowledges shale gas could reduce the UK’s dependence on imports. And in the mid to late 2020s, shale gas extracted in the UK could be used a source of energy. But without big efforts, emissions will remain a barrier to exploiting indigenous unconventional gas.