Global confidence in CCS wanes
Confidence in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is waning just as the need to roll it out to cut global emissions is becoming critical. And energy efficiency, often billed as the low-hanging fruit of carbon cutting, isn’t at all – it requires huge governmental support.
These were just some of the points made in a pretty daunting presentation at yesterday’s Economist Energy Summit, by the World Energy Council’s (WEC) Secretary General, Christoph Frei.
WEC has come up with a pretty impressive graphic to explain the uncertainties and drivers involved in different parts of energy policy. It shows that in 2011, an “absence of a global climate framework and lack of progress towards a significant agreement between big blocks [of countries]” is the main source of uncertainty for new policies and technologies, although uncertainty also stems from the political uprisings in the Middle East and the post-Fukushima nuclear backlash.
Image - WEC Global Issues Map 2011. Jpg (note)
Download this graph as a PDF. This release shows how to read the infographic.
Frei said CCS is a clear victim of the lack of political will and the absence of regulation which would create the certainty needed to pilot and roll out new technologies. CCS – technology that would extract and store greenhouse gases emitted from coal power stations – is too expensive in the absence of a carbon price to secure enough investment to develop beyond the pilot stage.
Energy efficiency is another victim of divided governments and a lack of international cooperation. Frei said the view that it’s the easiest carbon-cutting policy to implement is misplaced. It will require investment in “capital, education and institutional frameworks” to promote the behaviour change needed.
As illustrated in the confusion about the UK’s Green Deal, efficiency needs “cross-departmental alignment in government” to be successful. Everyone has to get behind it, in other words. This point rings especially true in the light of earlier comments by Conservative MP Tim Yeo, who told the audience the Department of Energy and Climate Change is a “weak” department that’s encountering difficulties on all sides, and not just from the Treasury.
While CCS is now perceived as less politically and practially viable, other solutions have been gaining influence since 2009: smart grids, storage, electric vehicles and sustainable cities are now in a “solid position” to influence energy developments. Frei said Brazil and other rapidly developing countries experiencing rapid growth in urban populations have taken a lead on sustainable city development.
Frei also looked at scenarios WEC prepared for world transport to 2050. Developed countries’ fuel demand is set to fall by 20 per cent – mostly due to efficiencies. But rapidly growing economies like China and India’s transport fuel demand will grow by between 200 and 300 per cent, and are set to surpass that of developed countries by 2025. Click here for the infograph.
WEC expects that if market forces are allowed to set the pace for the future of world transport, governments will miss the chance to ensure companies adopt alternative technology early and countries will not benefit from updated infrastructure. Meanwhile, if regulation is implemented, WEC envisions total fuel demand for all transport modes could go up by 30 per cent instead of 82 per cent under the free market scenario.
It’s all sobering stuff, and puts the UK’s leisurely rollout of low carbon technology – as described by Ofgem CEO Alistair Buchanan later in the day – into perspective. According to WEC, the pace of change is directly linked to the clarity of government signals.
Read WEC’s World Energy Issues Monitor 2012 here