The Daily Mirror predicts winter power blackout; National Grid confident it wont happen
Panto season has come early to the Daily Mirror’s front page. The UK’s energy infrastructure is in such a state that this winter will see a return to “ blackout Britain“, it declares today – receiving a firm “oh no it won’t” from the grid operator in response.
So is it time to start stockpiling candles? Probably not. National Grid is confident the tools are in place to keep the lights well and truly on this winter.
Winter concerns
National Grid released its annual Winter Outlook report yesterday, outlining how it will ensure the UK has enough power to meet increased demand as the weather gets colder and days get shorter.
The ‘blackouts’ theme is popular with some papers. Stories claim coal plant closures, gas import dependence, intermittent renewable electricity, and a lack of investment to build large new power plants creates energy shortages that are worst during winter.
But Chris Train, National Grid’s director of market operations, said in a press release accompanying the report that he was sure “the market can meet demand in cold weather”.
So why is National Grid so confident? In a word: planning.
Gas supply
In the winter months, gas demand spikes as people turn up their central heating. Since less than half the UK’s gas is domestically produced, there are fears the UK could run short of supplies if imports dry up.
But National Grid says it’s prepared for the coming cold. Its latest report shows it has plans in place to ensure the UK would have enough gas to meet a record level of demand, were it to occur.
The UK has a range of gas sources, so if one becomes scarce or expensive, National Grid can ramp up supply from another. The UK gets its gas from pipelines connected to the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium and Ireland, ports which can handle Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), the old North Sea stalwart, and a fair amount of storage. Such diversity has performed well over the last eight years, and National Grid’s report says it doesn’t see why this winter should be any different.
As such, it says it is confident the UK has gas capacity “well in excess of maximum demand”. Critics of this system would point out that this system can render the country vulnerable to gas price hikes on the international market – but on the demand side, it appears to work fairly well.
Electricity supply
It’s a similar story for electricity. Some gas plants have been temporarily shut down as they struggle to compete with cheaper coal and renewable energy sources. Nonetheless, National Grid is confident there is still enough capacity to meet demand on even the coldest, darkest days.
National Grid’s forecasting in the new report suggests the difference between the amount of electricity it has available and the expected level of peak demand is about five per cent (in favour of supply). It says that if the temperatures are about average throughout winter, that gap increases to about eight per cent.
As with gas supply, National Grid gets electricity from a range of renewable and fossil fuel plants, has interconnectors linked to the continent, and storage facilities to call on if demand peaks unexpectedly or a power station breaks down.
While balancing intermittent renewable electricity supply with peaks and troughs in demand has always been an intricate task, National Grid has previously told Carbon Brief it’s pretty good at it. Weather forecasts are now sophisticated enough to let it know where and when the wind will be blowing or sun will be shining, so it knows ahead of time when alternatives are needed and can get them online in time.
National Grid’s report also says reduced energy use lightens the load, to an extent. The UK’s switch away from energy intensive industries, more energy efficient homes, and better public awareness of energy use means yearly demand has dropped slightly.
All in all, then, National Grid is pretty confident the candles can be left in the cupboard.
Confidence
Scaremongering over winter power blackouts has become an annual fixture in some papers. While the UK’s energy system is far from perfect, National Grid’s latest report – like last year’s, and Ofgem’s earlier this year – suggests the UK is well placed to deal with the annual spike in demand. After all, we can always pay to import more fuel.
So the villain in this energy debate panto looks more likely to be costs than blackouts.