Three climate turning points – From US shale gas to Indian renewables
With international climate change negotiations at an impasse, nations are going it alone to address climate change – and making good progress, according to a new report.
The research by US thinktank Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) takes an unashamedly optimistic look at the key policy successes of five of the world’s major economies – here’s a few of the highlights.
India’s renewables
In 2008, the Indian government set an ambitious target of producing 15 per cent of the country’s electricity from renewable energy sources by 2020.
India is aiming to have 4,000 megawatts of solar power contributing the grid by 2017, rising to 20,000 megawatts by 2022. It also aims for 31 gigawatts of wind power by 2017 – almost doubling the amount installed in 2011. But CPI says these targets are ambitious, as renewables technology investment faces “daunting policy and ï¬nancing problems”.
As the graph below shows, most of India’s new generation capacity came from conventional sources – particularly coal. In 2010, coal power produced the vast majority of India’s nearly 1,000 terawatt hours of energy. So even though renewables are growing quickly, they still have a long way to go to catch up with coal generation.
Image - India emissions drivers (note)
Diversifying European energy
Europe’s overall emissions decreased slightly over time, in part because member states diversified where they got energy from.
As the graph below shows, most of the emissions savings in the 1990s were from nuclear and hydropower. But in the 2000s, non-hydro renewables – such as wind – and more efficient and therefore less polluting types of coal power generation were responsible for more of Europe’s emissions savings.
Image - EU emissions drivers (note)
Policies to encourage investment in renewables in Germany and the UK have helped to bring down the costs of technology and make it more economically competitive today. But CPI says this has not been without a cost to consumers who often have to pay a surcharge on their energy bills to fund the projects.
United States’s gas
Energy related carbon dioxide emissions have fallen by 13 per cent in the United States over the last seven years. The report unpacks why, showing that a significant part of this was due to a booming shale gas industry, as this graphic shows:
Image - US emissions drivers (note)
CPI credits a large part of the boom to the government relaxing environmental regulations to allow for more shale gas drilling.
But CPI says it is unclear whether or not the shale gas revolution will ultimately help the US to reduce emissions. It argues that while emissions savings are made if gas replaces coal generation, cheap natural gas can make it harder for renewable energy sources to compete – meaning the US could continue to generate energy from shale gas rather than less-emitting renewable sources in the long-run.
Optimistic?
CPI outlines a number of reasons to be optimistic. It shows major economies are making progress on addressing climate change without the guidance of an international treaty – which doesn’t look like being agreed any time soon.
However, question marks remain over whether this will be enough. Progress in the US has so far relied on a piecemeal approach to regulation, while the EU’s flagship climate policy – the emissions trading scheme – is barely functioning. Likewise, while India is investing in renewable technologies, higher emitting energy sources such as coal remain at the centre of its energy system.
As CPI acknowledges, how the world might actually reduce its emissions enough to prevent the worst effects of climate change “remains somewhat of a mystery”.