2013 emissions edge the world closer to 2 degrees
Carbon dioxide emissions are up again. This year’s emissions are set to reach a record-breaking 36 billion tonnes, according to a new study by the Global Carbon Project.
News of the projected 2.1 per cent rise comes as negotiators at climate talks in Warsaw are discussing commitments to reverse the trend.
Researchers tracking emissions say the figures mean humans have used up more than 70 per cent of the global carbon budget, a figure that scientists estimate will give a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to two degrees.
All time carbon high
The new study projects that emissions will rise 2.1 per cent in 2013, meaning more than 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide will be emitted over the 12 months in total. That’s a record high for annual human emissions.
However, although emissions are still predicted to increase, the rate of increase is slower than the average over the past decade. Weaker economic growth in countries like China are expected to contribute to this trend, say researchers involved with the project.
But even this slower rate of emissions growth is threatening the chance humans have of limiting global warming to the politically-safe target of two degrees Celsius.
Closing in on the carbon budget
A two degree limit for global temperature rise remains an important cornerstone of climate negotiations.
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sets out a specific limit on how much carbon we can emit, from the start from the industrial revolution onwards, and still have a reasonable chance of staying below two degrees. It calls this limit a carbon budget.
To have a 66 per cent chance of keeping temperature rise below two degrees, we can emit no more than 800 billion tonnes of carbon in the form of carbon dioxide, the IPCC says. That takes into account the fact that other factors also warm the climate.
By 2011, we had already emitted 515 billion tonnes of carbon.
According to the Global Carbon Project, the world emitted 35 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2012 and will emit another 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2013. Converted into carbon that’s about an extra 10 billion tonnes each year.
At this rate, we’ll be over-budget fairly quickly. Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter explains:
“We have exhausted about 70 per cent of the cumulative emissions that keep global climate change likely below two degrees.”
Who and what is responsible?
To show where the carbon is coming from the report is accompanied by an online atlas of emissions.
It shows that in 2012, China, the US and EU were the biggest emitters of carbon dioxide overall.
But per person, rich oil states like Qatar were the top emitters – on average, each person in Qatar emits around 44 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.
US emissions averaged 16 tonnes per person, while China and the EU’s carbon consumption per head averaged out at around seven tonnes per person.
Image - Emissions Per Capita (note)
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in 2012. Source: Global Carbon Atlas
The Atlas also indicates which activities and fuels are causing the biggest share of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions.
In 2012, most of those emissions came from burning coal (43 per cent), then oil (33 per cent), then gas (18 per cent). Cement production accounted for 5 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions last year, and changes in land use accounted for 8 per cent.
Window of opportunity
Despite the fact the rise in emissions this year is expected to be slower than the average over the decade, prospects for limiting global warming to no more than two degrees continue to shrink. According to Professor Friedlingstein, the world is currently following the IPCC’s highest emissions scenario – making four degrees, not two, the much more likely outcome.
Avoiding that future will mean reassessing the amount of carbon-rich coal, oil and gas we consume.