Seven climate and energy stories that will definitely/probably/maybe happen in 2014
Predicting the future is a fool’s game, but we’d be letting Santa down if we didn’t give our brand new crystal ball a whirl. Here’s our stab at pre-empting 2014’s seven big stories.
1. There’ll be a scuffle in Lima
It will be a relief to many that after negotiating through a Polish winter in Warsaw last time around, the annual international climate talks are being held in Lima’s sunnier climes in 2014. But will delegates’ moods match the weather? Probably not.
In recent years, the negotiations have sparked tears, walkouts and a (most recently) a hunger strike over the lack of tangible progress towards a new global climate change deal. Expect next year’s talks to go to form, as nations try to lay yet more ‘foundations’ for a new deal to be signed in Paris in 2015.
2. Britain will have the SOMETHINGEST weather in SOME YEARS
We’re going to stick our necks out here, and say the UK will have some weather next year. And some of it will probably be record breaking.
In 2013, news outlets fell over themselves to report that the UK had the hottest day for seven years, the driest summer since 2006, and the coldest spring in 50 years. Shift the adjectives, seasons and base years around a bit and you can probably generate some of 2014’s headlines yourself.
Another prediction: directly linking these weather happenings – or any other extreme weather events – to climate change will continue to be problematic in 2014.
3. Household energy bills will go up
Ok, we cheated here – the ‘big six’ energy companies have already said this will be the case.
What we don’t know is whether energy companies will announce bill hikes again next autumn – though history would suggest it’s likely – and if rising costs will continue to be the big story it was at the end of 2013. But as pre-election rhetoric ramps up and the ‘cost of living crisis’ proves a reliable headline generator, you wouldn’t bet against it.
4. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will hit headlines, again
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is set to launch parts two and three of its major report, in March and April. Its last big report hit headlines with a bold topline: Scientists are more sure than ever – 95 per cent certain – that humans are causing extra warming.
The next two reports are on the impacts of climate change, and policies to try and slow emissions. We look forward to once again trying to condense the thousands of pages into bitesize chunks for you, dear readers.
5. The lights will stay on
Market regulator, Ofgem, and grid operator, National Grid, will both release reports on the state of the UK’s energy infrastructure next year, as they do every year. And, as before, there will probably be an accompanying set of headlines declaring the UK is that much closer to the prospect of “1970s-style blackouts”!
Despite the capacity margin – the amount of spare power available at any moment – getting a bit tighter, National Grid was fairly sanguine about the prospect of running out of power last year. It seems things really would have to get very bad – large power stations simultaneously and unexpectedly breaking down when there’s no wind blowing, sun shining, or gas left in storage, for instance – for the lights to actually go out.
Here’s hoping they don’t.
6. Someone will get fired
There’s a general election on the horizon. It’s currently only a tiny dot (it’s expected to be on the 7th May 2015), but it will loom ever more into view as the year progresses. Politicians fighting for their jobs mixed with an already politicised energy debate could make for some interesting rhetoric in 2014.
Labour is currently setting the pace with its 10-point energy plan and energy price freeze promise. The government’s response has so far been a bit a bit staccato, but it may be on steadier ground now the energy bill has been signed into law.
At a time of unprecedented public interest, ministers and their opposition counterparts will need to set the energy agenda throughout 2014 or risk being shuffled.
7. Climate coverage will enter a new era of sophistication
2014 will be the year hyperbole and statistical fudgery is left out of the climate and energy debate. Well, why not?
Check back with us this time next year to see if we’re eating our words.