Carbon Brief weekly update 10 January 2013
Met Office temperature predictions – hot or not?
Over the festive break the Met Office released new analysis revising downwards a prediction for how much temperatures are likely to rise over the next five years or so. This prompted a rash of stories this week claiming that global warming is at a ” standstill“.
Temperatures are rising slower than in previous decades because, scientists say, natural fluctuations in the climate system are temporarily masking warming caused by humans. But over a longer timescale – like more than a few years – the upward trend in global temperatures is going to continue, barring a cut in greenhouse gas emissions. We explain more in a blogpost.
This didn’t stop some parts of the media from arguing that that climate change isn’t happening. The Guardian rounded up responses from the media and from climate scientists – one of whom described claims that temperatures aren’t rising as “just daft”.
Hot in Australia
Meanwhile on the other side of the planet, temperatures have risen so high in Australia that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has added new colours to its weather forecasting map.
New Scientist note that heatwaves are becoming more common as the planet warms. Campaigner George Monbiot argues that Australia’s record-breaking heatwave means “a new politics” is needed, capable of responding to the existential threat of global warming.
But Australia’s acting opposition leader said that it is ” too simplistic” to link the current hot spell to climate change. We took a closer look at the scientific evidence here. At the same time, in North America, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that 2012 was the warmest year in US history.
Also on our blog this week:
Video: Slower temperature rise does not mean global warming has stopped
A useful video created by the the website Skeptical Science shows that if you take out all the natural influences on global temperature that have occurred the last 30 years, leaving just the human component, you can see a steady warming trend.
How business savvy is DECC’s new permanent secretary?
A new Permanent Secretary, Stephen Lovegrove, has been appointed for the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) after David Cameron rejected the head of the Committee on Climate Change for the post. But was Lovegrove chosen for his business acumen, or because the PM hopes he’ll smooth over divisions in the department?
£110 billion, the energy bill and the Mail on the Sunday
The Mail on Sunday claims that the UK energy bill could cost the country £110 billion and cause the UK years of chronic impoverishment. But, er, is it right?
The Independent says we’re headed for “catastrophic” sea level rise: Here’s what you should know about melting ice sheets
The Independent says that scientific experts believe melting ice sheets contribute more to sea level rise than previously thought. We offer a guide to how scientists’ understanding of the ice sheets has improved in recent years, and where the new study fits in.
Methane emissions undermine switch from coal to gas
Questions are being asked about the emissions benefits of shale gas, after new research shows high levels of methane emissions leaking from two gas fields in the United States.