Tim Yeo says his views on climate change “haven’t changed one iota”
Has the chair of Parliament’s Energy and Climate Change Committee changed his mind on whether humans cause climate change? “My views haven’t changed one iota” he tells us – it’s highly probable that climate change is caused by humans, and he will keep pushing for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Tory MP, Tim Yeo, leads the influential Energy and Climate Change committee and is a forceful advocate for the green policy agenda – including a 2030 target for decarbonising the electricity sector. So a story in today’s Daily Telegraph that reports comments by Yeo suggesting humans “may not be responsible” for rising temperatures, and that “natural phases” could be to blame, has raised some eyebrows.
Climate skeptic pundits like James Delingpole are predictably delighted with Yeo “recanting”. But Yeo says he is “mystified” by the story. He counters that he hasn’t changed his views, and believes the scientific consensus is stronger than ever before.
A matter of emphasis
The Telegraph has posted a one-minute extract of Yeo’s speech to the Westminster Russia Forum in which he tells the audience:
“… although I think the evidence that the climate is changing is now overwhelming, the causes are not absolutely clear, there could be natural causes, natural phases that are taking place. There is at least a risk that the increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is a possible cause”.
In itself, this extract certainly doesn’t appear to be a ringing endorsement of the scientific consensus on man made climate change on Yeo’s part.
Scientists agree that climate changes because of both natural and human factors. But recent climate change has been attributed mainly to human activity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says it’s at least 90 per cent certain human activity is responsible for most of the observed temperature increase since the 1950s, mainly through burning fossil fuels. In a draft of the next IPCC report, due out in September, this conclusion looks set to be strengthened to “extremely likely” – which means at least 95 per cent certainty.
Asked about the story, Yeo tells Carbon Brief that he agrees with this weight of evidence:
“It’s highly probable [climate change is] caused by humans. That has always been my view and it remains my view.”
While the possibility exists that the recent warming isn’t man made, Yeo tells us, he doesn’t think it is likely:
“Very few people would say they are 100 per cent certain – even those who follow this issue very closely. Scientists very rarely say they are 100 per cent certain. It’s a historical fact that there have been some huge changes in the climate over the years”
Indeed, the Telegraph piece includes a quote from Yeo to this effect in the last paragraph:
“The strong probability is that it is man-made causes contributing to greenhouse gas concentrations.”
It also includes Yeo’s conclusion that this means strategies such as energy efficiency are “prudent”.
So what could explain the story?
Yeo was speaking to an audience interested in UK-Russian investment in the energy industry. Without hearing what came before or after his quote, it is difficult to get the full gist, but it may be that he was moderating or spinning his views for the audience – which would still be unfortunate, given his remit within government. But it may also be the case that other parts of his speech contain a different emphasis. At any rate, Yeo has been very clear that his comments don’t reflect a change in views.
There’s also the wider political context to take into account. As the proponent of a controversial amendment to the energy bill that would require the power sector to decarbonise by 2030 on which MPs are due to vote next week, Yeo is in the news at the moment, and subject to scrutiny.
This may be why this story has appeared now – Yeo tells us he has given versions of this speech over 100 times before. He says:
“I don’t think anyone who knows me and who has known me these 20 years would think I have changed my mind. I rather welcome the Telegraph talking about climate change, I think that’s a good thing â?¦ I will continue to fight to bring down emissions, to decarbonise the economy. That’s what I fight for and will going on fight for. No headline is going to change my mind.”