Can coal be compatible with emissions cuts?
Disclaimer – A letter organised by ECF, our funder, is referenced in this piece. There, we feel better now. Read on…
Poland is hosting two international meetings this week, with seemingly contradictory goals: It is convening the latest round of international climate talks at the same time as giving industry a platform to claim increased coal use is compatible with climate goals.
Environmentalists have criticised the Polish government for the scheduling clash, accusing it of allowing the the climate negotiations to become framed on the coal industry’s terms.
Carbon budgets
The Polish government today released a joint statement with industry group, the World Coal Association (WCA), saying:
“There are many misconceptions about coal and its environmental impact. Many believe that the use of coal is incompatible with meeting the challenge of climate change. We disagree.”
The organisation calls on governments to implement policies encouraging the immediate rollout of “low-emissions coal combustion technologies” – meaning any new power plants would be built to the most state-of-the-art specifications. It says development banks should find a way to help developing countries pay for the more efficient – but more expensive – new plants.
But a group of 27 climate and energy scientists have responded to the WCA’s claim, saying it is “misleading” to suggest existing coal technology is compatible with reducing emissions and tackling climate change.
The group points to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report, which says that for it to remain likely that we stay below two degrees, the total amount of carbon released through carbon dioxide emissions must be less than 1000 billion tonnes.
The letter says that because coal power generation has such high emissions, it should be the first fuel to be replaced by already available alternative energy sources.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), suggests that if current levels of coal demand persist, the world would far exceed a carbon budget providing a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to two degrees, laid out in the IPCC’s report.
The IEA analysis, summarised in the graph below, suggests that continuing to burn coal at current rates would put the world on a path to around six degrees of warming:
Image - IEA coal demand and degrees (note)
It says governments will need to implement a range of policies to reduce coal demand if the world is going to hit the two degree target.
Reducing demand
The IEA’s research suggests that even if coal is burned in the ‘cleanest’ way possible – by adding carbon capture and storage technology to the power plants – policymakers must dramatically reduce coal use in order to meet climate goals.
The graph below shows what the IEA says will need to happen to coal demand if governments are serious about cutting emissions. The red and yellow bars show how much coal demand is expected to increase or decrease per year in the future, depending on how stringent governments’ climate policies are.
Image - IEA coal demand for 2 degrees (note)
The IEA’s ‘new policies’ scenario – the first yellow/red bar – assumes all current policies are implemented, as well as “cautious implementation” of new policies based on governments’ announcements. It shows a coal demand growing at a slower rate than current levels.
In that scenario, coal demand would increase much more slowly – by 0.7 per cent per year on average up to 2035, compared to 2.5 per cent over the last 25 years. The new policies scenario could lead to around 4 degrees of warming, the IEA says.
The bottom bar on the chart shows what needs to happen to coal demand if the world is going to hit the two degrees target, according to the IEA’s projections.
The ‘450 scenario’ assumes governments would implement strong policy measures to reduce emissions. The IEA calculates that those policies would cause coal use to fall by 33 per cent by 2035, with power sector coal demand at half the current level.
All of the IEA’s scenarios assume at least some new coal plants are fitted with carbon capture and storage technology – making them more efficient than even the least polluting current coal plants.
So even if the world continues to burn coal in the ‘cleanest’ way possible, the IEA’s projections suggest the world will warm by more than the two degrees target – unless action is taken to reduce coal demand.
New policies
Environmental campaigners have criticised the WCA and Polish government for organising the meeting at the same time as the international climate talks. They say the coal chatter “distracts” policymakers and the media from the more pressing goal of getting countries to commit to new emissions reduction targets.
But while the IEA’s research would suggest that the WCA’s recommendations won’t be enough to hit the two degrees target , debating the future of coal is key if the world is going to meet its climate goals.