Fracking the UK wont reduce emissions, government report says
Is the UK on the verge of a domestic oil and gas boom? Newspapers are excited about the prospect following the release of a new government report. But while the government is keen it’s still unclear how much onshore oil and gas the UK has, and what impact it could have on the UK’s emissions.
Yesterday, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) published plans to open up large parts of the UK to oil and gas exploration. That includes exploring for shale gas, which is extracted through a controversial process known as fracking.
The report claimed the UK could soon have as many as 120 frack pads scattered across the country – with some significant social and environmental impacts.
Impacts
The government maintains shale gas could be a significant part of the UK’s energy mix in the future. But while the British Geological Survey has identified potentially large resources in the north of the country, it’s still uncertain how much companies will be able to access.
The government’s new report considers two scenarios: ‘low’ and ‘high’ activity. In the former, only 50 licenses are expected to be granted. But the government hopes that by offering to open up a large portion of the country, demand will be much higher – 150 licenses.
According to the government’s most optimistic estimate, 8.64 trillion cubic feet of gas could be produced over 20 years. It has pointed out this figure would be more than twice current annual consumption levels (3.52 trillion cubic feet).
But once production is spread over two decades, the comparison looks less impressive: it would mean domestic gas could provide around 12 per cent of the UK’s current annual consumption levels, on average.
And ramping shale gas production up to such levels could have significant social and environmental impacts (Greenpeace blog Energydesk has a handy summary).
The report acknowledges communities could be disturbed by increased lorry traffic and noise from the equipment. It also says residents living close to the frack pads could be affected by reduced air quality. The government hopes the promise of more jobs and community payoffs are enough to encourage residents to accept fracking in their communities, however.
The report also acknowledges that emissions from fracking could contribute to climate change. In the high activity scenario, increased onshore oil and gas drilling could be responsible for releasing the equivalent of 15 per cent of the industry’s current annual emissions into the atmosphere each year.
The report also says shale gas would most likely replace imported gas in the energy mix, not coal. So while emissions are unlikely to rise much as a consequence of ramping up shale gas, the UK is also unlikely to replicate the US’s success in reducing emissions by displacing coal with shale gas – despite ministers’ claims to the contrary.
Despite acknowledging the negative impacts, the government’s plan shows it’s committed to encouraging more onshore oil and gas exploration.
Finding the gas
Headlines this morning claimed the plans mean that anywhere from “ half” to ” two-thirds” of the UK could soon be fracked, focusing on a map showing the areas new drilling licenses could cover.
But it’s still unclear how many rigs will actually appear, and whether or not they will be for fracking.
The yellow areas on the map show where companies already hold licenses, with the blue areas showing where the new licenses could cover:
Image - DECC oil and gas license map (note)
The Sun says the map showed fracking could soon be coming to “a town near blue”. But while the government is considering offering licenses to drill in large swathes of the country, there’s no guarantee companies will move in.
This is partly because geologists don’t think there’s oil and gas in all the blue areas on the map. For example, while some licenses might be handed out to drill in London, there’s currently no evidence to suggest there’s any shale oil or gas there.
Even if companies get a license, they can’t start drilling immediately. Companies would have to submit a separate planning applications for the government to review in each case before drillers move in – as this DECC blog helpfully explains.
And not all the applications will be to frack. Onshore oil and gas companies are already drilling in various locations around the UK, but only one – Cuadrilla – has ever done any fracking. It stopped that operation to do a further environmental impact assessment after its initial tests caused small tremors, however.
The government hopes that by offering “unlimited” licenses, other companies will be encouraged to pick a spot to give it a go, restarting the industry.
Opening up
Ultimately, companies’ enthusiasm will dictate how many frack pads pop up across the land. George Osborne confirmed tax breaks for the industry earlier this month which the government hopes will kickstart the industry. But there remains only one company – Cuadrilla – currently exploring for shale gas, and public opposition to its activity earlier this year may discourage other companies from entering the market.