Why it is too soon to call John Kerry the saviour of US climate policy
Green groups welcomed the appointment of John Kerry as Secretary of State on Tuesday. The appointment of the former senator from Massachusetts and one-time Presidential contender has been hailed as a new era for US climate policy. But can Mr. Climate really engage the US on climate change?
The president of the Natural Resource Defense Council – one of the US’s highest-profile green groups – describes Kerry as a “a champion for action against climate change”, and a host of other environmental groups have echoed his enthusiasm. Across the Atlantic, the EU’s climate change commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, tweeted her support for the nomination, as did UK climate change minister Greg Barker.
Kerry the ‘climate hawk’
Kerry has been active in supporting climate change policy over the last two decades. An attendee at the first Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, he recently wrote a letter to the previous secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, to pressure her into agreeing a deal at the UN’s 2011 climate meeting in Durban.
Kerry is no slouch when it comes to domestic climate politicking either. He co-sponsored a cap-and-trade bill in 2010 that would have required the US to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, although it failed to get through the Senate. And as chair of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee since 2009, he argued that climate change is a national security threat for the US.
Kerry has resisted pressure to declare outright his position on another key environmental issue – whether or not he’ll approve the controversial Keystone XL tar sands pipeline as secretary of state – insisting that proper analysis of the pipeline’s environmental impacts is carried out first. Blocking the pipeline would make him even more popular with the green lobby which has been campaigning against it.
Environmental groups hope climate hawk Kerry will have an aggressive climate policy in his new post as Secretary of State. But he’ll have his fair share of obstacles to overcome if he wants to spur the US into action on climate change.
Obstacles
One such obstacle is the US legislature – which still has the power to reject any climate treaty that Kerry may be able to negotiate.
And the Senate has form: President Clinton failed to get it to agree to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 as it believed it would harm the US economy, and it is unlikely that the Senate would agree to a similar treaty in the current economic climate.
Meanwhile, Obama’s gain will be the Senate’s loss. Kerry was one of the strongest supporters of action on climate change when he was a senator and it is unclear whether he can have any influence over Congress from the outside. Professor John Vogler of Keele University tells Carbon Brief that Congress’s opposition to action on climate change may be Kerry’s biggest problem:
“We have plenty of evidence of good intentions by senior US leaders – Al Gore in 1997 for example – but the key lies in the connection between internal and external climate policy and it is here that Congressional willingness to move and provide the basis for US involvement in a new agreement is absolutely critical.”
While Kerry was very active on climate change as a senator, he has no official power over Congress as secretary of state. Removing him from the very place that needs the biggest push on climate change may turn out to be a bad move.
It is also unclear how much influence Kerry will have on the US’s international actions on climate change. Special envoy Todd Stern will continue to lead the US delegation to the UN meetings on climate change, not Kerry.
Stern appears to want the US to act on climate change but is aware that any agreement must be able to get through the Senate. Stern was overheard threatening to block a draft text of an agreement in Doha last year because the US felt it was unfair to major polluters. He has also previously expressed concerns over climate deals giving an unfair economic advantage to major emerging economies – and emitters – such as China and India.
While Kerry will influence the negotiations to an extent, Vogler points out the “secretary of state has many other immediate concerns coming across his or her desk, and climate change negotiations are usually headed up by specialists outside the State Department” – such as Stern. And unless China and India change their stances, Stern probably won’t budge either – something that Kerry’s appointment is unlikely to affect.
Kerry is not the only key climate change appointment that President Obama needs to make this term. For there to be any significant change in the US’s approach, Obama will almost certainly need to appoint a climate ally at the Environmental Protection Agency to make progress at home while Kerry pushes for action at the international level. The EPA has been responsible for some of the US’s main climate policy successes in recent years – such as winning a ruling in the courts that will allow it to regulate harmful greenhouse gas emissions – and Obama needs to appoint a new chief after Administrator Lisa Jackson announced she would step down in January.
Obama’s climate credentials
Environmentalist jubilation may be premature: Kerry still has to overcome many obstacles as secretary of state if he wants to re-engage the US on climate change. It remains to be seen how significant Kerry’s appointment is as he faces up to complex international negotiations and a tough decision on the Keystone XL pipeline. At the same time the Senate has lost a strong voice on climate action – and removing him from Congress could ultimately do the US more harm than good.
President Obama promised to make climate change one of his top three priorities for his second term and the only thing for sure right now is that Kerry’s appointment has given Obama’s climate credentials a boost with environmental groups – however temporary that may be.